Westminstenders: The House Is On Fire

[RedToothBrush]

Have we walked into a trap or has the trap shut on the fingers of Johnson?

To early to tell but we have entered an All or Nothing Game.

Johnson seems to have been advised his only way out is a GE - the polls look decent to him. Yet the FTPA means he can not call one without parliaments consent.

He has tried to spook Tory MPs to his will by threatening de-selection. Yet this seemed to have backfired in combination with proroguing and fired up rebels and moderates.

This might still be deliberate though to remove the road block of an internal civil war in the Tory Party. In cleansing moderates though they become the Brexit Party...

... And Spreadsheet Phil has vowed to fight to the last for his party from entryists and non members like Cummings. After first getting support of his local association.

Tonight sees a vote at around 9pm, which is touted as a pseudo no confidence vote.

If this block no deal then tomorrow we face a big day. It looks like there are numbers to do this.

Rebels are looking to seize control of parliamentary time (which might affect prorogation timetable). This is a beefed up version of the previous attempt to do this.

This is around 3pm - 7pm tomorrow.

No 10 has a spad meeting at 7pm, which presumably is about fallout from that vote - and if it goes against government will probably be about trying to force an election.

If he can.

Labour now have leverage though. They can make demands and insist they are in law before agreeing to a GE on Johnson's terms.

Which perhaps makes a GE less likely than the BBC seem to think.

There is talk of trying to force another extension to 31st Jan. I'm not entirely sure how this helps, without a legitimate goal of a deal that goes with it. All it does is push things even more polarised.

And that's my fear. The issue of Brexit isn't going away. No deal, a deal and remaining all leave significant numbers highly dissatisfied. Its hard to see a way out of this without unrest because its been pushed so hard in a polarising way.

If Johnson fails to no deal or to deal on his terms where does this push Farage sympathisers?

We shall see what happens...

... Will the House's independence survive until Nov 5th?

Hadn't noticed that May was sitting next to Clarke!

Jessica elgot@jessicaelgot
Labour benches more united than I have seen in a while. Johnson characterising the vote tonight as a "confidence vote" in his government has made life a tad easier for the Labour whips.

Not gonna lie.

I'm enjoying watching the Govt front bench right now....

Johnson is incoherent

He sounded completely rattled in that statement, he doesn’t like not being liked. Maybe for the first time in his life the bumbling fool act isn’t going to work for him.

Because countries don't like bumbling fools for leaders ? The exception to the rule being the US, on account of having a kiltonne of death for every man woman and child on the planet.

JC doing well today.

Well, when a govt loses its majority, convention dictates that it can't do anything at the last moment to bugger up the new govt

However, No Deal happens if they just sit on their hands

Corbyn should NOT agree to a GE unless BJ has already requested and obtained an A50 extension,
to give any new govt some breathing room
and of course to stop BJ changing the date until after Brexit

I wonder if we could ask for a 2 year extension, to be shortened automatically to 3 months after a GE
purely because we can't trust our own PM ?

Trump won't make it to the end of hos "presidency"

Ha ha...I'm enjoying the show 👍

Re majority

Lewis Goodall @lewis_goodall
In reality, of course, he does still have an effective majority of 1 because Charlie Elphicke will continue to vote with the govt.

Also Jared O'Mara's expected departure will inflate the govt's tally until he is replaced.

Just gotta hope JC et al don't fuck this up.

"We can’t be sure that whatever were to come out of it will ever translate into reality.""

Nothing new wrt that:
The govt hasn't been able to pass a Brexit bill since January, certainly not at any time since BJ became PM

The "negotiations" have always been nonsense in that respect

Elphicke's Court case is Friday I believe.

But there's still Kate Hoey.

So Johnson technically has a minority government but still commands a majority.

For now.

Matt Dathan @matt_dathan
Jared O'Mara's resignation as an MP is due to be triggered as soon as the Commons returns this afternoon.

This could actually be significant now because it takes away a vote from the anti-No Deal side tonight

I suspect Hoey at least would vote with the Tories too

However, BJ now has no official majority or C&S - unless he gives Hoey / Vauxhall a DUP-type bung and gets a written C&S

Snap,red about Hoey !

Sam Cooper @samcoopernews
Quite a few asking - still awaiting confirmation of the resignation of Sheffield Hallam MP Jared O'Mara

I understand that O'Mara HAS always shown for major Brexit votes, just not for anything else.

But there's still Kate Hoey.

Would she vote with the Tories ?

Spreadsheet Phil

Hell hath no fury like a dead sheep scorned

Think she has done in previous votes.

Beth Rigby@bethrigby
Theresa May sits next to Ken Clarke in the chamber. The father of the House of could be expelled from the party by her successor.

May aides say she will support the government, but I do believe her sitting next to Clarke is making a point nonetheless.

So how does Hoey get a pass for voting with the Tories ?

I have to leave the room when Hoey comes on for the sake of the TV