Westminstenders: The House Is On Fire

[RedToothBrush]

Have we walked into a trap or has the trap shut on the fingers of Johnson?

To early to tell but we have entered an All or Nothing Game.

Johnson seems to have been advised his only way out is a GE - the polls look decent to him. Yet the FTPA means he can not call one without parliaments consent.

He has tried to spook Tory MPs to his will by threatening de-selection. Yet this seemed to have backfired in combination with proroguing and fired up rebels and moderates.

This might still be deliberate though to remove the road block of an internal civil war in the Tory Party. In cleansing moderates though they become the Brexit Party...

... And Spreadsheet Phil has vowed to fight to the last for his party from entryists and non members like Cummings. After first getting support of his local association.

Tonight sees a vote at around 9pm, which is touted as a pseudo no confidence vote.

If this block no deal then tomorrow we face a big day. It looks like there are numbers to do this.

Rebels are looking to seize control of parliamentary time (which might affect prorogation timetable). This is a beefed up version of the previous attempt to do this.

This is around 3pm - 7pm tomorrow.

No 10 has a spad meeting at 7pm, which presumably is about fallout from that vote - and if it goes against government will probably be about trying to force an election.

If he can.

Labour now have leverage though. They can make demands and insist they are in law before agreeing to a GE on Johnson's terms.

Which perhaps makes a GE less likely than the BBC seem to think.

There is talk of trying to force another extension to 31st Jan. I'm not entirely sure how this helps, without a legitimate goal of a deal that goes with it. All it does is push things even more polarised.

And that's my fear. The issue of Brexit isn't going away. No deal, a deal and remaining all leave significant numbers highly dissatisfied. Its hard to see a way out of this without unrest because its been pushed so hard in a polarising way.

If Johnson fails to no deal or to deal on his terms where does this push Farage sympathisers?

We shall see what happens...

... Will the House's independence survive until Nov 5th?

Regarding withdrawing the whip from anyone who votes against the government or abstains.

1. Surely that will just encourage the potential abstainees to vote against the government.

1. He already has NO MAJORITY. Has no one bothered telling him?

1. It’s surely an empty threat (see #2 above). But he’ll look weak if he doesn’t carry it through and stupid if he does.

Let’s see what Letwin says then.

Not wanting to derail, but what does GC actually mean?
The idea that men can simply say they are women and be accepted as such is clearly ridiculous
As is medicalising very early the gender/sex uncertainties of young people's questioning about identity
But my very best friend who I'd trust with my life is a two decades post op trans woman. I worry for her.

GC = gender critical

He hasn't officially resigned though is my understanding.

He's filed his papers but not fired the trigger.

I don't profess to necessarily agree nor disagree with the differences in procedures.

We are talking about the difference between local level politics and cruical country changing laws though so I'm not sure the procedures should be the same either.

People deserve representation rather than tribalism. And Brexit has been marred from start to finish with a lack of that.

dgr
100 lines.
There is no 'd' in linbury court. Or was it Lynbury?

Here we go. Letwin laying the groundwork.

Tim Shipman@shippersunbound
The mood has certainly shifted in Westminster. I’ve had three texts from Team May contacts today who appear to be enjoying the corner into which the prime minister has backed himself. Two weeks ago they were looking enviously at a government with a plan bossing the news agenda

Theo Usherwood@theousherwood
Sir Oliver Letwin describes Boris Johnson's negotiating strategy as standing on one side of a canyon shouting to people on the other side to do as he says but when they don't comply, he jumps into the abyss anyway.

"That's not a credible negotiating strategy," Sir Oliver says.

No statement in his opening speech that Letwin is NOT trying to Stop Brexit. That’s a fail Mr Letwin.

The only countries who will admire Britain going forward are Trump's America and Russia's Putin. Both of whom want the EU to die.

I don't think Britain understands that the EU has plans, they offered solutions (WA), they are willing to talk. They have contingency plans and are following the GFA to the letter re the backstop.

Most other countries in the world could give a shiny shit TBH.

Corbyn being surprisingly good today.

He is autumn

Matthew Smith @matthewsmithetc
"The gambles Boris Johnson is taking look like good bets" - new piece from me. Despite "do or die" 60% of Leave voters say it won't be Boris's fault at all if the 31 Oct is missed because Parliament blocked it

General election outcomes Britons think are likely:
Hung Parliament - 57%
Tory majority - 37%
Pro-Brexit majority - 35%
Anti-Brexit majority - 21%
Brexit Party majority - 13%
Labour majority - 9%
Lib Dem majority - 5%

Disruptive Politics @disruptivepolt
That’s very significant.

Basically it seems the majority can see that if his hands are tied by Parliament, its hard to blame him for it.

In other words - perception is that he’s being martyred rather than surrendering

This is your warning klaxon to reign it in, if today's events so far have made you feel more hopeful

Ahem

This is your warning klaxon to reign it in, if today's events so far have made you feel more hopeful

I’m not feeling hopeful at all. Although I am rather enjoying the fact that Johnson is fluffing his attempts at looking like a grown up. I don’t mind him being portrayed as a martyr so long as he is politically dead. Preferably taking the Tory party with him.

Alex Wickham@alexwickham
A government source predicts they will lose tonight’s vote... but says what matters is the vote on the election. “Labour would look like fucking clowns if they vote against so bring it on”

Theo Usherwood @theousherwood
Source from the same Government run by a Prime Minister and foreign secretary who say they do not want an election?

Tories want a GE but don't want to admit it, Labour don't want a GE but don't want to admit it.

No clear statement from Mr Corbyn in his speech that he is not trying to Stop Brexit. That’s a fail Mr Corbyn.

See my earlier comment Red Bingo

“Constitutionally irregular” from JRM. Fucking cheek!

I think the reporting right now in the Daily Mail might be going against Johnson. Says he was 'humiliated ' by Dr Philip Lee crossing the floor as he 'struggled to defend his Brexit position'.

Something or someone - probably DomCum - has pissed off some newspaper editors. Anna Soubry suggested Johnson himself had had a rant at the editor of the Telegraph.

If they turn even a little on the Govt and that will affect polls, such (sadly) is their influence.

DS16 thought Corbyn was surprisingly good. We had to stop watching when slimy slug Rees Mogg came on.

I think the reporting right now in the Daily Mail might be going against Johnson. Says he was 'humiliated ' by Dr Philip Lee crossing the floor as he 'struggled to defend his Brexit position'.

Yeah, I think the press has turned on Cummings and is turning on Johnson, just as they turned on May. No one wants to be the last one left supporting a loser.

Rees-Mogg well out of his depth as well here. It's fascinating but grim, given the importance.