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Brexit

Westminstenders: Game On?

975 replies

RedToothBrush · 29/08/2019 21:35

Johnson has had prorogation approved by the Queen.

There has been widespread outrage and horror both in the UK and in Europe. Johnson has ripped up the principle of Liberal democracy even if constitutionally what he has done is legal. In shredding convention and the 'gentlemans agreement' of understanding we teeter on the edge of democratic collapse.

Talk is tha Dominic Cummings is persuing a game theory principle of deliberately putting us on collision course with the EU. The idea being that they will blink first because the alternative of what will happen is just too awful for them to allow. The idea is to force others to make the moves whilst Johnson appears principled and strong, even without a proper strategy and plan for a deal.

And there is the rub. Despite all the Talk of no deal, at some point a deal MUST be made, regardless of whether its before or after 31st October. There is no sense of what that could be and how it could be done. And then there's the prospect of a US deal which suffers from the same lack of tangibility.

All there is, is how things look for a General Election. Nothing else.

Johnson is pitching for an election with no sense of what's needed for Brexit - including the legislation needed for no deal. Not to forget that Cummings, strategist that he is, apparently isn't here for the long haul, only being contracted until 31st October, when he goes for surgery he postponed to take on this job.

So what's the plan for Johnson Post Cummings? Or is he going to do even more 'winging it'.

Meanwhile there's an awful lot of moderate Tory MPs getting very nervous and already failing to stick to the Cummings script.

Johnson, until there is an election is going to firmly blow hot and cool, trying to play to the hopes and fears of leavers and remainers to keep them hanging on to hope and the notion that x or y will happen, when x and y can't possibly both happen because they are completely opposing strategies. Hope leads us blindly to stumble like fools into his trap and to win his reelection.

Next week looks very bumpy indeed. Chances are this thread won't make it past Saturday...

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woman19 · 31/08/2019 23:56

FOM end postponed Confused

Westminstenders: Game On?
boatyardblues · 31/08/2019 23:57

Corbyn Chaos sounds much more appealing than Boris’ nihilistic oblivion. When the population is staring into the abyss, this kind of shroud-waving crap doesn’t resonate in the same way. Nice try Boz, but try harder.

SwedishEdith · 31/08/2019 23:58

I just learned on another thread that hunsnet Netmums dissolved a while ago, so reportedly there has been an influx from there

Just googled - still seems active. But every time mn appeals to the Daily Hate readership, its collective IQ drops a few points.

woman19 · 31/08/2019 23:59

@melspence2
Is that code for Priti had a fucking stupid idea?

@StevePeers
Seems so.

Chaos with Jeremy Corbyn.
Sounds preferable atm.

CendrillonSings · 01/09/2019 00:00

Corbyn Chaos sounds much more appealing than Boris’ nihilistic oblivion. When the population is staring into the abyss, this kind of shroud-waving crap doesn’t resonate in the same way.

Wrong again, it seems:

mobile.twitter.com/britainelects/status/1167928278402748417

Westminster voting intention:

CON: 35% (+5)
LAB: 24% (-1)
LDEM: 18% (-)
BREX: 14% (-)

via
@DeltapollUK
, 29 - 31 Aug
Chgs. w/ 27 Jul

boatyardblues · 01/09/2019 00:07

Wrong again, it seems

That’s a cover for tomorrow’s Sunday Times. The poll closed today. I didn’t realise political polling was now so sophisticated the polls can assess the impact of future media coverage. Hmm

RedToothBrush · 01/09/2019 00:07

I'm very much detached from everything tonight, being a long way away with no access to video or TV.

It removes context of mood and visuals.

What I'm reading is more of the same mirror views of what's happening.

On one said is the idea Cummings may have over pitched and over played his hand. He has gone to far and may h

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Peregrina · 01/09/2019 00:08

Who would their higher loyalty be to, the Queen or the Govt? I am assuming the Queen as they swear an oath, but then it is HMQ govt?

Since it's the Royal Air Force and Royal Navy, then I assume their loyalty is to the Monarch. It is however the British Army, so their loyalty is to...?

BigChocFrenzy · 01/09/2019 00:14

Weimar warns us about what happens when politicians give up on their own parliaments

https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/magazine/britain-proroguing-boris-johnson-parliament-suspension-richard-evans-weimar

Strongmen like Orbán or Jair Bolsonaro (and those like Trump who seem to want to emulate them) don’t need violence to achieve their goals.

They have been elected into office, not necessarily by masses disillusioned with democracy

  • voters, in other words, who are waiting for someone to start giving them orders -

but by those who believe that the democracy we’ve had is a sham:
that politicians do not listen to the common people, and that elites control everything.

It’s only after they’ve been elected that men like Orbán begin to dismantle the very system that brought them to power
—muzzling a free press, attacking independent courts, even seeking to overturn election results they don’t like (
as we’ve seen recently with the Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdog˘an in Istanbul’s mayoral contest).

The drive of Trump’s Republicans to impose onerous voter registration rules in the US, designed to depress turnout by African-Americans and others,
also reveals an alarming contempt for basic democratic values.

So too does the determination of Johnson and Dominic Cummings and their unelected, hard-right government to force through a disastrous no-deal Brexit without parliamentary approval and against the wishes of the majority of the population.

None of this seems to dent populist politicians’ popularity with their own base.

In the UK, Johnson’s policy is single-mindedly directed towards winning back the voters who have defected from the Conservatives to the Brexit Party,
after which, following a no-deal Brexit, he will go to the country and be elected as the man who took Britain out of the EU.

A divided opposition with an unpopular and ineffective leader will, he calculates, be easy prey at the hustings.

BigChocFrenzy · 01/09/2019 00:23

woman imo, Brexiters indulging in wishful thinking over Orbán helping them in EUCO

Early this year, Farage and some Tory Brexiters went touting around the EU far right, Orbán in particular, as a head of govt, to get him to veto an extension.

It didn't work, because he was more worried about his own position in the EU and trying to avoid irritating them further with Artical 7 hanging over him

It wouldn't work this time either.

As before, the issue will be convincing Macron and now several other countries, that the UK won't waste yet another extension

I really hope we get as far as asking for an extension, but it looks unlikely Sad

SwedishEdith · 01/09/2019 00:24

He (Trump) has not been seen eating/drinking in public for some time...

Why? Does he wear one of these?

Westminstenders: Game On?
BigChocFrenzy · 01/09/2019 00:24

red Enjoy your hols !

woman19 · 01/09/2019 00:30

Brexiters indulging in wishful thinking over Orbán helping them in EUCO
Salvini's down the tubes too. Trump looks like he's about to keel over. They're running out of fashes. Grin

@tnewtondunn
There is a growing misunderstanding afoot. The PM can’t just call an election any more. Not Boris, nor any other. That hasn’t been possible since the passage of the Fixed-term Parliaments Act (2011). Now if they want one, two thirds of all MPs have to agree first. (1)

twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1167934745990184962

Johnson will need labour votes to get an election.

Tricky........

Apileofballyhoo · 01/09/2019 00:30

Right, how about this.

  1. Crash out with no deal. Crazy, "no deal, we just want to leave, Brexit means Brexit" part of the population happy. Disaster capitalists happy. People that would have been affected by new EU tax laws happy. DUP happy (for the moment anyway).
  1. Immediate GE, winning overall majority (Brexit party are gone, shops aren't empty yet, no deal reality hasn't been as bad as people said/is spun as not being that bad). DUP are now gone.
  1. Immediately sign up to backstop for NI only but call it some other thing, free port or what not. (Nobody cares anyway except the DUP and they're goners, see 2.)
  1. Do essential deals with the EU fast.
  1. Unleash further austerity, now with the excuse of Brexit.
  1. Have further tax cuts for the wealthiest because the economy needs to be stimulated or some such thing.
  1. Continue with the dismantling of the NHS.
  1. Enjoy all the extra money from 1 and 6.
  1. Enjoy the adulation from the leave means leave brigade.

It's just the timing that's hard to figure out, especially regarding food.

RedToothBrush · 01/09/2019 00:30

may have united soft Liberal leavers against no deal with Remainers in efforts to deselect trouble makers.

On the other hand there is the narrative that is exactly what Johnson wants pre GE. This way he can say he went for x, y or z but was prevented by Remainers.

May was very guilty of this. Johnson isnt doing differently.

I note the Sunday Times front page. We had all the headlines and outrage at Priti Patel saying FoM would end straightaway on 31st October, this has now, once the headlines have died down got the reversal as its not going to remotely possible.

Of course the message has got through and people remember it, and don't necessarily see or know about the reversal.

Either way its a constant theme.

Indeed I'm minded of a Gary Kasparvo quote:
"The point of modern propaganda isn't only to misinform or push an agenda. It is to exhaust your critical thinking, to annihilate truth."

This is how Putin keeps power.

In this case, no one knows Cummings game. In a sense that is the real game. Its not anything more. The Tory Moderates don't know if they will be chucked out if they don't toe the line to the letter.

Thus the whole thing simultaneously causes things to come to a halt or fulfills the promise.

I am minded to say that in raising such tensions its made the tensions along fracture lines be heighted. Thus you get riots and unrest providing the perfect climate to invoke the power of the CCA, that didn't exist before.

I note causing chaos - through panic stockpiling and unrest before an election and leaving - means the effects caused by no deal aren't necessarily blamed on leaving without a deal.

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RedToothBrush · 01/09/2019 00:32

BCF I'm nowhere with lots of noisy people who I don't share a language. So can't sleep!

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woman19 · 01/09/2019 00:33

They could make a little deal: People's Vote: Remain or WA then a GE.
Sorted. Smile

wheresmymojo · 01/09/2019 00:34

Don't know if this has been posted already, latest poll came out an hour ago.

Not good news...

Westminster voting intention:

CON: 35% (+5)
LAB: 24% (-1)
LDEM: 18% (-)
BREX: 14% (-)

via @DeltapollUK, 29 - 31 Aug
Chgs. w/ 27 Jul

BigChocFrenzy · 01/09/2019 00:36

More poll detail:
Tory gain is compared to shortly after BJ became leader, so not necessarily approval of the coup

Britain Elects@britainelects

Westminster voting intention:

CON: 35% (+5)
LAB: 24% (-1)
LDEM: 18% (-)
BREX: 14% (-)

via @DeltapollUK, 29 - 31 Aug
Chgs. w/ 27 Jul

=====
Corbyn still the bogeyman for voters, not just Tory rebels

Even Silly Swinson is preferred as PM:

On who would make best Prime Minister:

B. Johnson: 45%
J. Swinson: 19%
J. Corbyn: 17%

via @Survation, 29 - 30 Aug

=====
Voters polled before would rather keep Brexit than NI, so the backstop being a sticking point looks more like determination not to let the EU "win"

More opposed to delaying Brexit, i.e. extension, than in favour Hmm

Takeaways from the latest @Survationn_ poll: (on what to do next)

Voters (52%) say they would support the Brexit deal if the EU removes the Northern Ireland backstop.
Plurality (49%) opposed to delaying Brexit. 42% are in favour.
Majority of Tory and Brexit Party voters support an election pact.

BigChocFrenzy · 01/09/2019 00:40

red Play music loudly, to entertain yourself
and study these Survation charts

Westminstenders: Game On?
BigChocFrenzy · 01/09/2019 00:41

I'm posting because it's been 33C (whole week 30C+) and now we have a noisy storm bringing in blissfully coller air

I'm just chilling in front of the open windows, looking out at the lights on the Rhine

wheresmymojo · 01/09/2019 00:48

Well....even Labour voters think Corbyn is a weak leader Confused

Ugh...you get so buoyed up by seeing the protests and reading Tweets in my little Remainer bubble where all of the journos on their personal accounts are also aghast at what is going on....and then you look at the polls Sad

So yeah...prediction remains No Deal and GE with Tory majority or Tory/BXP. May be the other way round with GE first but results will be the same.

BigChocFrenzy · 01/09/2019 00:48

btw, I see pretty was right that the Shetland Isles result was actually a good SNP performance, despite LDem hold

@pretty do you kniw anything about the Independent who seems to have taken votes nearly all from the LDems ?

Shetland Isles (Scottish Parliament) result:

LDEM: 47.9% (-19.5)
SNP: 32.3% (+9.3)
IND (Thomson): 10.9% (+10.9)
CON: 3.6% (-0.1)
GRN: 1.6% (+1.6)
LAB: 1.3% (-4.6

BigChocFrenzy · 01/09/2019 00:51

This is why, if No Deal can't be stopped,
I'd much rather Corbyn kept BJ under control by refusing him a GE and making him continue with only a 1-vote majority

BJ wouldn't be able to do any of the things the ERG want
whereas a GE would likely give a working Tory majority, maybe even a coalition with Farage, if it pleases Cummings

tobee · 01/09/2019 02:10

Yes to the above BCF