Westminstenders: Game On?

[RedToothBrush]

Johnson has had prorogation approved by the Queen.

There has been widespread outrage and horror both in the UK and in Europe. Johnson has ripped up the principle of Liberal democracy even if constitutionally what he has done is legal. In shredding convention and the 'gentlemans agreement' of understanding we teeter on the edge of democratic collapse.

Talk is tha Dominic Cummings is persuing a game theory principle of deliberately putting us on collision course with the EU. The idea being that they will blink first because the alternative of what will happen is just too awful for them to allow. The idea is to force others to make the moves whilst Johnson appears principled and strong, even without a proper strategy and plan for a deal.

And there is the rub. Despite all the Talk of no deal, at some point a deal MUST be made, regardless of whether its before or after 31st October. There is no sense of what that could be and how it could be done. And then there's the prospect of a US deal which suffers from the same lack of tangibility.

All there is, is how things look for a General Election. Nothing else.

Johnson is pitching for an election with no sense of what's needed for Brexit - including the legislation needed for no deal. Not to forget that Cummings, strategist that he is, apparently isn't here for the long haul, only being contracted until 31st October, when he goes for surgery he postponed to take on this job.

So what's the plan for Johnson Post Cummings? Or is he going to do even more 'winging it'.

Meanwhile there's an awful lot of moderate Tory MPs getting very nervous and already failing to stick to the Cummings script.

Johnson, until there is an election is going to firmly blow hot and cool, trying to play to the hopes and fears of leavers and remainers to keep them hanging on to hope and the notion that x or y will happen, when x and y can't possibly both happen because they are completely opposing strategies. Hope leads us blindly to stumble like fools into his trap and to win his reelection.

Next week looks very bumpy indeed. Chances are this thread won't make it past Saturday...

One of the things that irritates me about the defenders of prorogation is their gaslighting statement that this is a new government and therefore it is perfectly normal for it to want to start its new session and to have the time to prepare for that.

I will accept the point that a new session is normal - but they are being disingenuous lying about the length of time that prorogation in such cases normally involves. It is not normal to shut down all of Parliament for such a long time. But anyway, and just as importantly, there has been no GE. This is the same government that was voted just in in 2017. It might have a new leader but that is not the same thing.

Unless and until there is a (successful) VONC followed by a successful pulling together of a new administration, or a GE, we are stuck with this government

hazard Another problem with UK benefits is that they are so low that you are unlikely to reach the minimum income level for 3rd country citizens to have permission to reside there

iirc in Germany, it's EUR 48k p.a.
Other countries may have lower limits, but you need to check

The secret PM continues to hide from questions, offering only pooled statements with no opportunity for cross-examination.

The latest pearl: Those who are trying to block No Deal make it more likely since the EU will not make a deal if they think parliament will act.

The problems with this arsebiscuits on a bike are not difficult to pick. It's trying to unravel what passes for logic in this premise that's the toughie: The EU doesn't want to conclude a deal, but will have to because they will see we are serious about No Deal, which they want, but which they will be forced to reject if they think we are serious about wanting it too, even though we are just fibbing, etc.

One of the things that irritates me about the defenders of prorogation is their gaslighting statement that this is a new government and therefore it is perfectly normal for it to want to start its new session and to have the time to prepare for that.

If it's a new government, it's not bound by the manifesto of the old, and is no longer "obliged" to deliver Brexit then.

afaik, UK citizens who are current residents abroad won't have to fulfill these minimum income requirements, but any new UK expat would after No Deal

bigchoc thanks - I am looking into everything as much as possible right now. Just learnt the three year residency rule on some Gibraltar properties. Lots of things to take into consideration.

Also researched the medication that's missing, what it does in more depth and possible substitutions. Might be something manufactured in Japan but it's a different active ingredient. See what the specialist says.

dg well me and DP are heading for totally fucked so alarm away He won't need benefits at this rate anyway.

sadistic humour

On a lighter but nevertheless serious note, I am somewhat amused by Joanna Cherry calling for BlowJob to produce a signed affidavit stating the purpose for the prorogation and its timing. She went on to say that under both English and Scots law, you are required to tell the truth under oath (which includes affidavits).

BlowJob wouldn't know the truth if it kicked him on the backside (I was going to use a cruder metaphor more appropriate to BlowJob's urges but decided against it )

Does anyone think that the new findings about HRT and breast cancer are in any way connected with HRT shortages?

I'm normally not a conspiracy theorist but :
• we get leaks saying meat will become much more inaccessible to poorer families after Brexit. We then get ' news' items reporting the government recommendation is to choose more beans and pulses and less processed and red meat.
•Next we get closer and closer to medicines being delayed and inaccessible after Brexit. We then get ' news' items reporting menopausal hormone therapy is responsible for breast cancers in western countries.

Seems a bit of a coincidence to me.

Exactly my thoughts.

haz

Dh travels a fair bit.

If you think your dhs meds are available abroad pm me.

X

Does anyone think that the new findings about HRT and breast cancer are in any way connected with HRT shortages?

Are they UK specific, or peer-reviewed worldwide ?

I tend to ignore anything to do with medicine and science from the government anyway.

I assume he prorogued so he can bring the wa back for a fourth vote in the event he doesn’t get any concessions and revoke is off the table so everyone has to own their vote wa or no deal. I doubt he cares if it passes or not but he will be hailed a hero if he gets any improvements to it. It’s win win for him an absolute master stroke. In the meantime they will waste so much time frothing about the pro rogue when a) it is perfectly legal and b) endorsed by the queen. Ah but Corbyn doesn’t actually want an actual legal challenge, he just wants to make a stink. They should have been spending the last three years passing a bill to revoke which would have been the legal way out of this but oh no, no one wAnted to own that and now they are moaning about having five days taken away from them when in the past three years they couldn’t get their shit together in spite of the cabinet being so rubbish. You really couldn’t make it up. At least this fiasco will end on 31st and someone has had the bollocks to break the deadlock and force mps to vote for something instead of just whinging about what they don’t want.

Rant over.

At least this fiasco will end on 31st

If only that were the case. You ain't seen nothing yet, to quote Reagan

(It's always disarming to know more about your opponents objects of masturbatory fantasy than they do, if you have a mind strong enough ... it's one reason why I almost learned the Bible.)

PMK. Although as I’m about to head to the airport and get on a 4 hour flight I suspect I may not see much of this thread....

It’s win win for him an absolute master stroke.

I agree that he wants to force the opposition to make a choice between No Deal and the WA, but I don't think that means he is in a 'win win' situation.

It's likely that his WA #2 would pass on the back of 'remain' votes, leaving the ERG and Brexit Party to continue chuntering on in the background about BINO.

Farage isn't going anywhere and his supporters are unlikely to be satisfied with Brexit, because none of this was about the EU in the first place.

@DGRossetti

The only thing that will reduce house prices by any appreciable degree is more houses. The only thing that will reduce house prices by any appreciable degree is more houses. All else is cruft...

I'm guessing a lot of those Leavers have also nailed their grasp of quantum physics.

The bubble was blown up by cheap money (thanks for that, BoE). Endless props by successive governments haven’t helped.

www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/uk-housing-crisis-rent-price-new-build-a9071731.html Even the Tony Blair Institute can get it right sometimes.

You might want to go back to your close study of quantum physics.

I am a remainer who marches but I do think we should not lose sight of the complexity of some of these issues, rather than jumping to simple cause and effect, otherwise we risk letting emotion be the driver rather than rationality, and lose sight of the objective reality that Ian Dunt is highlighting as the strength of our argument.

The medical profession have been arguing for years about the impact of hormones on women’s bodies. Oncologists who deal with women with hormonal cancers have highlighted that there is no disputing that the more hormones a woman is exposed to across her lifetime, particularly Oestrogen, the greater the risk of hormonal Cancer. That is known. My Onc went further and argued that there was a relationship between hormones and hormonal cancers akin to smoking and lung cancer but that the way research tends to be framed, for instance focused on one source of exposure, tends to underplay the relationship. And as a society we don’t want to know it either since hormones have played so much of a role in giving women choices. I had a career with the help of a high oestrogen pill and then children with the help of more hormones. I might well have taken HRT too but a strongly Oestrogen positive (ie it retained the oestrogen receptors that breast cells have to receive hormonal signals and fed on oestrogen ) stage 3 tumour changed all that. Chemo threw me into a menopause 17 yeas ago (in fact the chemical castration depriving the cancer of hormones was probably a bigger factor in stopping the Cancer than the chemo itself) and left me osteopenic (the stage before osteoporosis) . HRT was obviously not an option for me. I take calcium and my osteopenia has been stable, menopause with hot flushes, tiredness, insomnia etc. isn’t all fun but there are upsides to not being on a hormonal roller coaster, not least that I am alive. I am not saying the current shortage of HRT is acceptable but from my perspective neither is it surprising that we get a drip feed of emerging evidence about the risks nor are experiencing the full consequences of menopause inevitably life limiting.

The meds shortage more generally has been an issue for some time and is as much the result of a dysfunction of the market as Brexit though it may well be a taste of things to come, Radio 4 ran a programme on it months ago, it is impacting those with mental health conditions particularly, often young people who have been having to go without meds. I have two bipolar friends who have been facing issues with supplies of their drugs for many months now, and have had to go through long risky periods without them (and indeed manic / depressive episodes) or difficult processes of switching drugs (it is an art not a science, nobody can predict how effective a drug will be for an individual or how it will affect them.) In one case a friend who without meds had prolonged and intense manic and depressive episodes it has been a very stressful time. However I don’t think it helps to simplify these issues, It is shit but not entirely Brexshit www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/society/2019/jun/11/drug-shortages-endangering-patients-lives-wasting-nhs-time

"I assume he prorogued so he can bring the wa back for a fourth vote "

Imo, he'll have to go for No Deal.

Otherwise, the Brexiter MPs will destroy him - iirc 160+ of them voted No Deal -
and many Tory voters would vote for Farage at the next GE

Proroguing is part of the plan to run out time to 31 October and automatic No Deal

wherewithal

I'm sorry, but having a thick moment. Not quite sure of the point being made ? Interesting article, but since it's TL;DR is that it's OK to continue not building houses - thus maintaining the status quo and profits of the likes of Barrett, Redrow et al, it's hardly an honest broker.

Even the Tony Blair Institute can get it right sometimes.

Hardly a seal of approval ...

I'll refine my assertion a tad, with the observation of the asymmetric/geographic nature of UK housing. If people woke up one day, and decided they had had enough of London (which would be richly ironic under a PM called Johnson ) and upped sticks and moved to the North, there would be a massive correction in house prices. Which is precisely why for all the bollocks of the past 30 years, we'll never see it happen. Certainly by political means.

Now geology, and a shrinking water table and water infrastructure could do it.

If he can revive the zombie WA, they can also re-present the Cherry amendment, then it's not WA vs No Deal, it's WA vs Revoke.

On house prices I am in an area economically heavily dependent on the financial sector and particularly the City. It is very evident here that companies in the City are already implementing post Brexit strategies. Jobs have gone abroad, prospects are more limited. As far as the housing market is concerned Brexit has already started.

However the result in the housing market is that the aspirational properties, the four bedroom + house you would have moved to when you were financially secure enough to have the access to the £1.5m for a bigger home for your family has come to a halt, people who have lost jobs or are moving abroad are trying to sell and nobody is buying. The only way to shift a bigger house is to come down to the price of smaller family houses. However there is still tremendous pressure at the bottom of the market, couples and families are still buying , and you are seeing properties that would previously have been for young couples pre family with bikes on balconies. So it is still just as hard to get into the market for first family homes, those prices are still on the rise, even if the average is falling.

Whose time? His ( I use the word reluctantly) sherpa is still meeting the eu so no time wasted there. It forces them to Vonc early so ge can still be before 31st - also crafty. What would they have done with those days that they couldn’t have done over the last three years? Totally out manoevered.