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Brexit

Westminstenders: Prorogation

999 replies

RedToothBrush · 28/08/2019 11:10

Its come to this.

Boris Johnson is to ask the Queen for permission to suspend parliament.

There are several legal challenges in the system to prevent this from happening.

It is unlikely to be able to stopped and the Queen is unlikely to intervene either. To do so would expose the Monarchy directly to a political threat which could lead to the downfall of the Crown if the cards lined up. Johnson has deliberate set up the situations where if she does, he is on the 'side of the people' whilst she is on the 'side of the establishment'. If she does nothing, she might be exposed still but none action, can be spun as political neutrality.

As David Allen Green points out:
^David Allen Green @davidallengreen
This is now the realm of pure politics

No court is likely to intervene - and it is not obvious what remedy a court could even grant so as to satisfactorily resolve the matter

"Not justiciable" as judges sometimes say

As we have seen so far, the opposition have been completely outclassed when it comes to 'pure politics' partly because of tribalism, partly because they lacked the capacity to understand and imagine how bad this could get - they never thought Johnson would go this far (massive tactical mistake) and partly because they so far do not understand whats driving this and have not produced and alternative narrative and explaination to counter those social and political fractures. Indeed everything they are doing is only serving to reinforce and widen those rifts and their complete lack of self awareness has been to blame. Johnson not only sees these fractures, he understands them, knows how to exploit them and most importantly is willing to do anything to retain power.

Authoritarians are always driven by this lust for power and are won't stop for anything. Thats why they are so dangerous and why checks and balances were put into the system. The trouble is the opposition didn't read the signs and are flapping in the wind now its reached the point where they suddenly realise its too far gone to be able to do much. The runaway train is firmly off the rails.

This all comes a day after the opposition apparently have agree a strategy to oppose No Deal. Which seems to include a VoNC. Remember this will always require Tory Rebels as even working together the Opposition haven't got the numbers - especially considering there are a few Labour Brexiteers.

This is being framed as a coalition of anti-democrats (which is something of a contradiction on several levels) by the government and the Brexit Party.

They have signed a pledge to set up an alternative parliament if government does prorogue parliament. This is full on civil war era stuff aka as a full blown constitutional crisis. Its actively into dangerous terrority. And as such, we very much into talking about the very real possibility of civil unrest. This is no longer something that can be considered hyperbole.

The timetable of this would see parliament prorogued just a few days into September (next week), closed to prepare for a new Queen's Speech and returning around the 17th October remembering the crucial final EU sumit on the 17th October. A VoNC doesn't necessarily mean the government will go though. There is no legal requirement to force the government to stand down. We may yet end up with a situation of two governments claiming legitmacy at the same time in late October. Prime Ministers Corbyn and Johnson.

A GE might eventually be the result of such a constitutional crisis but we would be way past 31st October before that happens.

Would we end up with an extension in such circumstances? Well the Prime Minister has to ask for one formally from the EU and the EU have to agree to one.

The problem being, who do the EU recognise as our PM?

We also have things coming into legal effect on the 1st November which would otherwise need revoking by parliament.

Which Parliament?

Things are going to get very very messy indeed.

OP posts:
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OhYouBadBadKitten · 28/08/2019 15:41

Anyone going up to London this evening? College Green 5:30.
Just have to decide whether I should be going, I'm supposed to be resting after a minor medical procedure.

Westminstenders: Prorogation
tobee · 28/08/2019 15:42

Whisperings about this being a way to get a deal???

Hazardtired · 28/08/2019 15:42

Every time I check the news it's worse news.

Fuck Boris Johnson. Fuck his cabinet. Fuck the Tory party. Fuck whoever voted for a far right government. Fuck whoever is not stocking DP's med and given us a substandard sub. Fuck. Fuck. Fuck. Fuck. Fuck.

Fuck.

DGRossetti · 28/08/2019 15:43

The really, really important issue, though is the fact that the Tories are currently polling very well - enough to win an outright majority at said election which would give them much more freedom for years

There is many a slip 'twixt cup and lip though. Polls now are not indicative of elections then. As was discovered in 2017. One (and it may yet be a blessing in disguise) feature of FPTP is it shits all over simple poll majorities. It's where the majorities are that is more important - and how they translate into seats.

For all the fury about "democracy", UK elections have always been decided by a few hundred people. Most of whom aren't aware who they are. Going back many years ago, if you tried to find out, you'd get a visit from some gentleman in matching shoes. But with the rise of Cambridge Analytica offshore, that's been impossible to control.

If the Tories want a majority, they'll need to appeal to Middle England. As always.

Myriade · 28/08/2019 15:43

I’m sure there won’t be riots in the cotswolds, or Home Counties [..]

But in the deprived inner cities?

Yes I can see that happening. What have they got to lose that austerity hasn’t already taken from them?

Tbh I agree with that. And Im wondering when this is likely to happn. Before the 31st october, after it?
I'm living in a very deprived area, one where peole had no issue rioting against Tatcher closing the mines. Its also a Leave area.
And Im not british (even my onw dcs who are born in the uk, have a british father, have a british passport and have lived all their life in the same town are not seen as properly british!).

Tbh, Im getting scared....

Hoooo · 28/08/2019 15:44

Yep.

Fuck em all, hazard

verticality · 28/08/2019 15:44

"It's where the majorities are that is more important - and how they translate into seats."

Absolutely. Electoral calculus suggests that the margin for a majority is about 6pts. They're currently well over 10 clear in many recent polls.

Myriade · 28/08/2019 15:47

The reason why they are polling very well s becasue BJ is finally looking oike someone who is decisive and is sorting the mess out. So yes it is a bit dictatorial but then I suspect it appeals to Tory voters.

One of the big issues with TM was that she looked weak and at the mercy of the EU, unable to tale any decision of give a clear path.

The big advantage of BJ position is that its clear and people know where we are all going, fibally seeing an end to the 3 years of mess and uncertainty.
The fact that actually No Dea; ist a plan and leaves just as much uncertainty as to what will happen is lost on most people.

verticality · 28/08/2019 15:50

That @Myriade, and the fact that the Remain vote is split between two parties, which is a huge problem.

ThereWillBeAdequateFood · 28/08/2019 15:50

I don’t think we will see riots before Brexit (lots of protests but no riots).

I’m guessing people most concerned with Brexit tend to be long term planners. They will stop and think through their actions before they riot.
Could be wrong though, wouldn’t be the first time.

Lonelycrab · 28/08/2019 15:51

Arrrgh I can barely contain my anger. Wtf is happening?

Johnson and cronies: bunch of fucking **s

TopBitchoftheWitches · 28/08/2019 15:51

What can the opposition do? They can made a stand! They can issue a press release, they can say they do not agree with this.
Oh and call a vote of no confidence.

tinytemper66 · 28/08/2019 15:51

I fear democracy as we know it is dead.

smilethoyourheartisbreaking · 28/08/2019 15:53

This reply has been deleted

Message withdrawn at poster's request.

Hazardtired · 28/08/2019 15:55

Has BXP released it's potential MPs names yet?

Hoooo · 28/08/2019 15:56

One of them is an ex bucks fizz singer

Myriade · 28/08/2019 15:56

I don’t think we will see riots before Brexit (lots of protests but no riots).

I thnk the several marches for Remain or a new vote (or all the previous marcjes before Brexit) have proven that they dont really have an effect on politicians. The tend to igmnore and carry on. And the attitude is similar from the newspapers.

So that means that .... there will be no opposition and BJ will be able to do what the heck he wants unless we have some politicians who have suddenly grown a back bone and actually do something to stop him.....

prettybird · 28/08/2019 15:56

Conservatives aren't polling well in Scotland - in fact it looks like it might be another near SNP sweep Grin

....not that that makes a difference to what WM chooses to do Angry

verticality · 28/08/2019 15:57

Wikipedia has a helpful collation of all the major recent polls:

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election

TokyoSushi · 28/08/2019 15:58

I really don't know how politics can go back to 'normal' after this Sad

smilethoyourheartisbreaking · 28/08/2019 15:59

This reply has been deleted

Message withdrawn at poster's request.

Hazardtired · 28/08/2019 16:00

hooo Hmm they pick interesting candidates don't they...

Fuckers.

InMySpareTime · 28/08/2019 16:00

I emailed Graham Brady, this is his reply:
"Thank you for your communication about the Prime Minister ’s request for the prorogation of Parliament. I am enclosing the PM ’s letter to colleagues which explains his reasons. Normally a session of Parliament would last around a year, this one is heading for two and a half years. Prorogation will result in a loss of only three or four sitting days - we would have come back on 7th or 8th Octoberr after the conferences and will now resume for a Queen ’s Speech on 14th Octoberr. It remains open to Parliament to hold a confidence vote in the government either in the two sitting weeks in September or the two sitting weeks between the Queen ’s Speech and the end of October. For those of us who are keen to see the UK leave the EU with a ‘deal ’, there is an important benefit that arises from this course of action: if the EU agrees to sensible compromise on the ‘backstop ’ at the EU Council 17-18 Octoberr_, the Speaker will be unable to prevent a vote from being held to approve the Withdrawal Agreement because it will be during a new session of Parliament.

This course of action ensures that Parliament will have opportunities in September and October to debate and to vote on matters including the EU. It also increases the chances of a ‘deal ’ being put before Parliament. Finally, I do not believe that the Palace would have agreed any course of action that was constitutionally improper."

verticality · 28/08/2019 16:01

All is not lost, folks. There's still a lot that can be done to challenge a no deal scenario. Check out the Jon Worth flowchart I just posted.

RedToothBrush · 28/08/2019 16:05

Whisperings about this being a way to get a deal???

You know that ship has sailed right?

Johnson doing a deal, will now not look like a victory for him with his core target voters.

This is Remainer mindset going on. All the time it's been 'He wouldn't do that. That's crazy! He wouldn't dare go that far'.

This is 'be nice and play together' thinking. Which has fizzled out in UK politics for anyone paying attention.

Of course he would and fully intends to.

Spot the authoritarian tendencies...
...and reflect on how many dictators are renowned for their concern for human rights and looking after the lives of their citizens and for their balanced and calm well adjusted personalities.

Honestly sometimes I think it's as if there is no listening going on.

It's just remain thinking of believing what they want that it can't be that bad and 'it'll all sort itself out'.

No it fucking won't. There is a mess here that needed tackling months ago, but no one saw the danger... Instead they have all exposed us to no deal because they didn't have the imagination that we'd get to this stage.

They certainly thought proroguing wasn't realistic and Johnson wouldnt really do that.

Why wouldn't he?

What's stopping him?

Jo fucking Swinson and Jeremy bloody Corbyn?

Seriously?

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