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Brexit

Westminstenders: Prorogation

999 replies

RedToothBrush · 28/08/2019 11:10

Its come to this.

Boris Johnson is to ask the Queen for permission to suspend parliament.

There are several legal challenges in the system to prevent this from happening.

It is unlikely to be able to stopped and the Queen is unlikely to intervene either. To do so would expose the Monarchy directly to a political threat which could lead to the downfall of the Crown if the cards lined up. Johnson has deliberate set up the situations where if she does, he is on the 'side of the people' whilst she is on the 'side of the establishment'. If she does nothing, she might be exposed still but none action, can be spun as political neutrality.

As David Allen Green points out:
^David Allen Green @davidallengreen
This is now the realm of pure politics

No court is likely to intervene - and it is not obvious what remedy a court could even grant so as to satisfactorily resolve the matter

"Not justiciable" as judges sometimes say

As we have seen so far, the opposition have been completely outclassed when it comes to 'pure politics' partly because of tribalism, partly because they lacked the capacity to understand and imagine how bad this could get - they never thought Johnson would go this far (massive tactical mistake) and partly because they so far do not understand whats driving this and have not produced and alternative narrative and explaination to counter those social and political fractures. Indeed everything they are doing is only serving to reinforce and widen those rifts and their complete lack of self awareness has been to blame. Johnson not only sees these fractures, he understands them, knows how to exploit them and most importantly is willing to do anything to retain power.

Authoritarians are always driven by this lust for power and are won't stop for anything. Thats why they are so dangerous and why checks and balances were put into the system. The trouble is the opposition didn't read the signs and are flapping in the wind now its reached the point where they suddenly realise its too far gone to be able to do much. The runaway train is firmly off the rails.

This all comes a day after the opposition apparently have agree a strategy to oppose No Deal. Which seems to include a VoNC. Remember this will always require Tory Rebels as even working together the Opposition haven't got the numbers - especially considering there are a few Labour Brexiteers.

This is being framed as a coalition of anti-democrats (which is something of a contradiction on several levels) by the government and the Brexit Party.

They have signed a pledge to set up an alternative parliament if government does prorogue parliament. This is full on civil war era stuff aka as a full blown constitutional crisis. Its actively into dangerous terrority. And as such, we very much into talking about the very real possibility of civil unrest. This is no longer something that can be considered hyperbole.

The timetable of this would see parliament prorogued just a few days into September (next week), closed to prepare for a new Queen's Speech and returning around the 17th October remembering the crucial final EU sumit on the 17th October. A VoNC doesn't necessarily mean the government will go though. There is no legal requirement to force the government to stand down. We may yet end up with a situation of two governments claiming legitmacy at the same time in late October. Prime Ministers Corbyn and Johnson.

A GE might eventually be the result of such a constitutional crisis but we would be way past 31st October before that happens.

Would we end up with an extension in such circumstances? Well the Prime Minister has to ask for one formally from the EU and the EU have to agree to one.

The problem being, who do the EU recognise as our PM?

We also have things coming into legal effect on the 1st November which would otherwise need revoking by parliament.

Which Parliament?

Things are going to get very very messy indeed.

OP posts:
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woodpigeons · 28/08/2019 16:05

Fuck and fuck and fuck.
What’s happening in the world isn’t about bojo or trump but about those who are pulling their strings.
I’ve lived in several dictatorships in Africa but never believed until recently it could happen here.
David Lammy was talking recently about civil unrest and saying he’d be taking part.

JustAnotherPoster00 · 28/08/2019 16:06

Remember the days of 'you'll have chaos under a Corbyn government'

Grin Grin

What the fuck happened to our politicians? Smh

RedToothBrush · 28/08/2019 16:07

I’m sure there won’t be riots in the cotswolds, or Home Counties [..]

But in the deprived inner cities?

Go to Waitrose when everyone is panic buying for the apolocalyse after 25th October and tell me that again with the same degree of confidence as you just did.

A few empty shelves and shortages and all bets on where and when riots might happen are off.

OP posts:
prettybird · 28/08/2019 16:08

Graham Brady follows the apologists' line that it's been a double session and that there was going to be a parliamentary recess - ignoring the fact that the parliamentary recess had not been voted for yet and was unlikely to be passed and that such a long prorogation is definitely not normal Angry

He tries to put the responsibility back on to the "opposition, implying that they have plenty of time to do something if they want and avoiding the elephant in the room that the Government is supposed to govern with the consent of Parliament rather than deliberately trying to avoid its oversight Angry

smilethoyourheartisbreaking · 28/08/2019 16:08

This reply has been deleted

Message withdrawn at poster's request.

Hoooo · 28/08/2019 16:09

I rather thought that Scottish tory voters handed TM the seats she needed to form a minority govt with the unholy alliance with the DUP...?

Hoooo · 28/08/2019 16:09

Apparently ruth davidson has gone to ground....

DGRossetti · 28/08/2019 16:11

I’ve lived in several dictatorships in Africa but never believed until recently it could happen here.

Ever since I can remember, my DM used to say that, and my DF just said "how do you know ?" - to which the answer was "Because we are British". But then DF was born under Mussolini ....

smilethoyourheartisbreaking · 28/08/2019 16:11

This reply has been deleted

Message withdrawn at poster's request.

Hazardtired · 28/08/2019 16:11

Clive Lewis (I think) labour MP had some strong words about police needing to drag him and other MPs out.

Just watched Johnson clip about suspension. He sounds believable but looks like a fucking shifty lying piece of shit. His eyes are not nice...who has not nice eyes?! He on coke?

Corbyn looked very solid and strong...I think they've stuck shoulder pads in his jacket.

BigChocFrenzy · 28/08/2019 16:12

I totally agree, red
No last minute reprieve coming from BJ, no cunning plan, no last minute deal

BJ and especially the ERG want No Deal

They hate the WA,
not just because of the backstop but because it requires the UK to keep minium standards and reduces their control

There is nothing the EU could offer them, even if there were time before 31 October - and BJ won't accept an extension

Hoooo · 28/08/2019 16:12

So is dennis skinner and the other labour closet tories....

woman19 · 28/08/2019 16:13

He wouldn't do that. That's crazy! He wouldn't dare go that far

This is 'be nice and play together' thinking. Which has fizzled out in UK politics for anyone paying attention

Yup.

'Out of stock' stickers seem to be getting more common in Tesco's.

Democracy went 'out of stock' at least 2 years ago.

It was our job, to replenish stocks.

We didn't.

Myriade · 28/08/2019 16:14

RTB, tbh I was more focused on the idea that there WILL be rioting in the deprived areas because this is what is going to affect me.

But the panic buying at Waitrose? nope that doesnt scare me when i compare that to the attitude of people in the deprived areas surrounding me. These peole might be doing marches but they wont riots. They might strike but i would be surprised if they were involved in anything physical. They are likely to hide with their stash until it calms down, in the knowledge that they can buy stuff even if its 10x more expensive, they can 'go and see xx family member' in an eu country/Australia etc...

Rioting is much too distasteful to them.

BigChocFrenzy · 28/08/2019 16:14

Would be encouraging, but a lot of DKs

Still shows the split / chasm in the country:
Remainers & Labour opposed to protogue, Leavers & Tories in favour:

YouGov@YouGov

SNAP POLL:
By 47% to 27% Brits say it is unacceptable for the government to suspend Parliament in the run up to Brexit

https://yougov.co.uk/opi/surveys/results?

Westminstenders: Prorogation
Violetparis · 28/08/2019 16:14

Dennis Skinner is pro Brexit but is no closet Tory.

Hoooo · 28/08/2019 16:15

If you are pro Brexit you are a closet tory.

RedToothBrush · 28/08/2019 16:15

I would strongly recommend you plan to have your stockpiles more or less full by 17th October.

Panic will set in then when the penny drops.

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DGRossetti · 28/08/2019 16:16

Democracy went 'out of stock' at least 2 years ago. It was our job, to replenish stocks. We didn't.

We should have taken a leaf out of the Royal Navies books, and offed a few Prime Ministers pour encourager les autres

If I was going to bump anyone off, it would be Cameron - for pretty much that exact reason.

BigChocFrenzy · 28/08/2019 16:16

People with nothing to lose, few assets, riot

People with jobs & houses & savings don't, unless their lives are threatened, not their livelihoods

prettybird · 28/08/2019 16:16

Hoooo - they did, but it is extremely rare for the Scottish MPs ever to make a difference to the colour of the WM Government, at least not a stable one.

Oh wait.......HmmWink

smilethoyourheartisbreaking · 28/08/2019 16:17

This reply has been deleted

Message withdrawn at poster's request.

DGRossetti · 28/08/2019 16:17

Dennis Skinner is pro Brexit but is no closet Tory.

Well he and Hoey need to look in the mirror (not the Mirror) and realise they've helped grease the tracks for this.

Hoooo · 28/08/2019 16:18

And what - exactly - are the quantifiable improvements no deal brexit will make to the lives of the people of Bolsover?

Can you tell me? Or dennis? Or the voters of Bolsover who gave labour a kicking at the local elections?

howabout · 28/08/2019 16:19

Actually the Parliamentary recess for the Party Conferences was voted on before Parliament broke up for the summer (Kate Hoey tweeted this earlier and I checked HoC) The Queen's speech just adds a couple of days on at the end. Of course it does completely alter the dynamic by forcing Parliament to VNC explicitly in Her Maj's Govt just after she had presented their legislative agenda. Also all her pomp and ceremony cuts into debating time and changes the optics. This assumes it all gets that far. Laura K and co seem to be assuming Opposition will prefer to force the issue before the recess and then Red's post comes into play - always assuming they actually have the numbers.