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Brexit

Westminstenders: Prorogation

999 replies

RedToothBrush · 28/08/2019 11:10

Its come to this.

Boris Johnson is to ask the Queen for permission to suspend parliament.

There are several legal challenges in the system to prevent this from happening.

It is unlikely to be able to stopped and the Queen is unlikely to intervene either. To do so would expose the Monarchy directly to a political threat which could lead to the downfall of the Crown if the cards lined up. Johnson has deliberate set up the situations where if she does, he is on the 'side of the people' whilst she is on the 'side of the establishment'. If she does nothing, she might be exposed still but none action, can be spun as political neutrality.

As David Allen Green points out:
^David Allen Green @davidallengreen
This is now the realm of pure politics

No court is likely to intervene - and it is not obvious what remedy a court could even grant so as to satisfactorily resolve the matter

"Not justiciable" as judges sometimes say

As we have seen so far, the opposition have been completely outclassed when it comes to 'pure politics' partly because of tribalism, partly because they lacked the capacity to understand and imagine how bad this could get - they never thought Johnson would go this far (massive tactical mistake) and partly because they so far do not understand whats driving this and have not produced and alternative narrative and explaination to counter those social and political fractures. Indeed everything they are doing is only serving to reinforce and widen those rifts and their complete lack of self awareness has been to blame. Johnson not only sees these fractures, he understands them, knows how to exploit them and most importantly is willing to do anything to retain power.

Authoritarians are always driven by this lust for power and are won't stop for anything. Thats why they are so dangerous and why checks and balances were put into the system. The trouble is the opposition didn't read the signs and are flapping in the wind now its reached the point where they suddenly realise its too far gone to be able to do much. The runaway train is firmly off the rails.

This all comes a day after the opposition apparently have agree a strategy to oppose No Deal. Which seems to include a VoNC. Remember this will always require Tory Rebels as even working together the Opposition haven't got the numbers - especially considering there are a few Labour Brexiteers.

This is being framed as a coalition of anti-democrats (which is something of a contradiction on several levels) by the government and the Brexit Party.

They have signed a pledge to set up an alternative parliament if government does prorogue parliament. This is full on civil war era stuff aka as a full blown constitutional crisis. Its actively into dangerous terrority. And as such, we very much into talking about the very real possibility of civil unrest. This is no longer something that can be considered hyperbole.

The timetable of this would see parliament prorogued just a few days into September (next week), closed to prepare for a new Queen's Speech and returning around the 17th October remembering the crucial final EU sumit on the 17th October. A VoNC doesn't necessarily mean the government will go though. There is no legal requirement to force the government to stand down. We may yet end up with a situation of two governments claiming legitmacy at the same time in late October. Prime Ministers Corbyn and Johnson.

A GE might eventually be the result of such a constitutional crisis but we would be way past 31st October before that happens.

Would we end up with an extension in such circumstances? Well the Prime Minister has to ask for one formally from the EU and the EU have to agree to one.

The problem being, who do the EU recognise as our PM?

We also have things coming into legal effect on the 1st November which would otherwise need revoking by parliament.

Which Parliament?

Things are going to get very very messy indeed.

OP posts:
Thread gallery
18
tobee · 28/08/2019 15:05

Queen says yes.

TopBitchoftheWitches · 28/08/2019 15:05

The queen said yes to Boris. Ffs Hmm

ThereWillBeAdequateFood · 28/08/2019 15:05

Queen has approved request Sad

ThereWillBeAdequateFood · 28/08/2019 15:07

Unelected politician suspends Parliament. Brilliant.

Ffs

Hoooo · 28/08/2019 15:08

Never any doubt she would

wheresmymojo · 28/08/2019 15:08

There are a lot of moderate Tories who have henceforth towed the party line that are now speaking out.

Example on Twitter - Stephen Hammond, Wimbledon

"I have consistently opposed No Deal. I am disappointed and surprised at the decision to prorogue Parliament. I think that it is wrong, undemocratic and constitutionally outrageous for Parliament to be prevented from holding the Government to account at a time of national crisis."

BigChocFrenzy · 28/08/2019 15:11

red I agree a written Constitution would be helpless once a dictatorship has taken control, or a country is in total chaos and economic Armageddon as in the Weimar Republic

However, it would be very helpful in stopping events well before we get to that stage,
in a normally stable country, in which the judiciary is still functioning.

BJ - or his advisers more likely - have been very careful not to do anything illegal

Even though MPs can't agree, activists like Gina Miller or Jo Maugham obtain a court order forbidding prorogue if it were actually illegal

As it is, they and the courts are helpless to top legal but immoral govt actions

I'm probably influenced by the German Constitution, which had many safeguards written into it by the allies.
e.g. it forbids referenda !!

wheresmymojo · 28/08/2019 15:11

The Queen was always going to agree...that's basically in line with normal constitutional practice...

Next week is going to be crazy.

flouncyfanny · 28/08/2019 15:13

This reply has been deleted

Message withdrawn at poster's request.

DGRossetti · 28/08/2019 15:16

And we should include DGRs excellent "Benito Jonsolini"

I came from here:

forums.theregister.co.uk/forum/1/2019/08/28/pm_johnson_shuts_parliament/

Well worth spending a few minutes on ... the up/downvote function helps keep it bot free, and the posters aren't shy about calling out bullshit.

BigChocFrenzy · 28/08/2019 15:17

Mojo I'm damn sure PM Ted Heath didn't order Bloody Sunday, or any other massacre
He volunteered in Spain to fight fascism and most of his Cabinet served in WW2
Neither would Home Sec Reginald Maudling, who was responsible for NI then, order murders

At that time in NI, some senior army officers, particularly in the Paras, decided to take the law into their own hands and start a Dirty War,
learning from how Chile and Argentina / the CIA brutally squashed popular rebellions

However, with this govt, I can imagine Cabinet ministers choosing and egging on certain senior officers.

Or indeed, troops on the ground feeling overwhelmed, protecting vital installations or supplies.
It only takes one to shoot and then most of his mates will join in.

Sostenueto · 28/08/2019 15:17

The Queen has to do what current PM wants. She has no real power. If I had no real power and had to do what she does I'd say bye bye lol!

tobee · 28/08/2019 15:18

Stephen Hammond is my MP.

Hoooo · 28/08/2019 15:18

I'm sat here with tears in my eyes.

I feel ridiculous.

BigChocFrenzy · 28/08/2019 15:22

If our Constitution outlawed proroguing, then I'm sure the Queen would have refused
However, she is helpkess to stop legal govot actions

GeistohneGrenzen · 28/08/2019 15:24

.

FoldyRoll · 28/08/2019 15:25

Fucksake. I want to riot. We need a general strike at the very least.

HappyDinosaur · 28/08/2019 15:26

Wow, things are really getting scary now.

DGRossetti · 28/08/2019 15:26

The Queen has to do what current PM wants. She has no real power.

So what's the point then ? We may as well have one of the cats PMKed here to do the job.

I suspect Republic will see a surge in inquiries, if not outright sign-ups.

Poor Charles - he's waited so long, so patiently, and it's all turning to shit. Even if he does become King, he may well be the last.

tobee · 28/08/2019 15:27

God JRM must have loved his part at Balmoral.

*loved not my first choice of wording

OhYouBadBadKitten · 28/08/2019 15:27

I hadn't realised everyone had jumped thread!

Will they be able to debate the petition given Parliament will barely have time to sharpen their pencils before they are prorogued?

woman19 · 28/08/2019 15:28

a written Constitution would be helpless once a dictatorship has taken control

The only things that stops a dictatorship are self education, organisation, cross partisan unity and courage.

We've had all of those in this struggle but not necessarily in the right order or quanities.

tobee · 28/08/2019 15:33

Adam Boulton being far too reasonable to Johnson on Sky News.

TokyoSushi · 28/08/2019 15:36

Christ, as this day is going on its just getting grimmer and grimmer, news channels becoming more pessimistic that it's likely to be no deal by the minute.

I really can't see what the opposition can do.

verticality · 28/08/2019 15:36

"Will they be able to debate the petition given Parliament will barely have time to sharpen their pencils before they are prorogued?"

I think they will be busy with more important things. The few days they have may be enough to pass legislation blocking a no deal if they can get their act together, and they're definitely enough to have a vote of no confidence, followed by a caretaker government to stop no deal up to the next election.

The really, really important issue, though is the fact that the Tories are currently polling very well - enough to win an outright majority at said election which would give them much more freedom for years. This is potentially a huge, looming problem.

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