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Brexit

Westminstenders: Prorogation

999 replies

RedToothBrush · 28/08/2019 11:10

Its come to this.

Boris Johnson is to ask the Queen for permission to suspend parliament.

There are several legal challenges in the system to prevent this from happening.

It is unlikely to be able to stopped and the Queen is unlikely to intervene either. To do so would expose the Monarchy directly to a political threat which could lead to the downfall of the Crown if the cards lined up. Johnson has deliberate set up the situations where if she does, he is on the 'side of the people' whilst she is on the 'side of the establishment'. If she does nothing, she might be exposed still but none action, can be spun as political neutrality.

As David Allen Green points out:
^David Allen Green @davidallengreen
This is now the realm of pure politics

No court is likely to intervene - and it is not obvious what remedy a court could even grant so as to satisfactorily resolve the matter

"Not justiciable" as judges sometimes say

As we have seen so far, the opposition have been completely outclassed when it comes to 'pure politics' partly because of tribalism, partly because they lacked the capacity to understand and imagine how bad this could get - they never thought Johnson would go this far (massive tactical mistake) and partly because they so far do not understand whats driving this and have not produced and alternative narrative and explaination to counter those social and political fractures. Indeed everything they are doing is only serving to reinforce and widen those rifts and their complete lack of self awareness has been to blame. Johnson not only sees these fractures, he understands them, knows how to exploit them and most importantly is willing to do anything to retain power.

Authoritarians are always driven by this lust for power and are won't stop for anything. Thats why they are so dangerous and why checks and balances were put into the system. The trouble is the opposition didn't read the signs and are flapping in the wind now its reached the point where they suddenly realise its too far gone to be able to do much. The runaway train is firmly off the rails.

This all comes a day after the opposition apparently have agree a strategy to oppose No Deal. Which seems to include a VoNC. Remember this will always require Tory Rebels as even working together the Opposition haven't got the numbers - especially considering there are a few Labour Brexiteers.

This is being framed as a coalition of anti-democrats (which is something of a contradiction on several levels) by the government and the Brexit Party.

They have signed a pledge to set up an alternative parliament if government does prorogue parliament. This is full on civil war era stuff aka as a full blown constitutional crisis. Its actively into dangerous terrority. And as such, we very much into talking about the very real possibility of civil unrest. This is no longer something that can be considered hyperbole.

The timetable of this would see parliament prorogued just a few days into September (next week), closed to prepare for a new Queen's Speech and returning around the 17th October remembering the crucial final EU sumit on the 17th October. A VoNC doesn't necessarily mean the government will go though. There is no legal requirement to force the government to stand down. We may yet end up with a situation of two governments claiming legitmacy at the same time in late October. Prime Ministers Corbyn and Johnson.

A GE might eventually be the result of such a constitutional crisis but we would be way past 31st October before that happens.

Would we end up with an extension in such circumstances? Well the Prime Minister has to ask for one formally from the EU and the EU have to agree to one.

The problem being, who do the EU recognise as our PM?

We also have things coming into legal effect on the 1st November which would otherwise need revoking by parliament.

Which Parliament?

Things are going to get very very messy indeed.

OP posts:
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MindyStClaire · 28/08/2019 14:13

We probably won't have a full on civil war, just the occasional riot and death plus Troubles in Ireland/NI. There will be more Eton educated smug fuckwits and more tea.

The Troubles never really happened in Ireland, just NI. And that definitely was a civil war in the UK. But people seem to forget that just cos it wasn't their part of the UK.

wheresmymojo · 28/08/2019 14:14

Would Remainers feel so strongly about the EU to become as violent??

I don't think so, certainly not starting it.

My view of the most likely scenes of violence would be:

  1. MPs either refuse to leave Westminster or sit in an alternative location -> hard right idiots turn up and commit violence alone or clash with people protecting the MPs
  1. Brexit is delayed with possible ugly riots - that being said, it didn't happen in March. Perhaps more likely if the right wingers feel all hope is gone (i.e. if there is a GE and Tories/BXP do not win)
  1. No deal happens - if the resulting shortages of food/meds/fuel happen this could result in some riots

At the moment the first one is my biggest concern. Riots are annoying (and terrible for the police involved) but the rest of us can just stay indoors out of the way, rioters get arrested.

The first one is the only situation where people like me (normal law abiding citizens) might feel it necessary to be involved. I couldn't stand by and see MPs be attacked and just watch until police arrived (though hopefully they would already be there and no need for bystanders to be involved). I can still see the clashing of pro/anti groups though in scenario 1 more than any others.

wheresmymojo · 28/08/2019 14:16

Boris has, so far, done one PMQT. One. That’s outrageous

Someone on Twitter pointed out that with the prorogation Parliament will have only sat for 4 days in the first 80 or so days BJ will have been PM (80 might not be exactly correct but it was in that ballpark).

DGRossetti · 28/08/2019 14:16

Today I learned

(nope, I tried giving up learning stuff. It's so not me)

Fucktangle

For some reason seems to fit the bill today.

DGRossetti · 28/08/2019 14:18

The Troubles never really happened in Ireland, just NI.

The people of London, Manchester, Guildford, and Birmingham don't count then ?

Socksontheradiator · 28/08/2019 14:18

A grateful for the explanation Pmk. I would struggle to understand need it need without these thoughtful threads Flowers

Socksontheradiator · 28/08/2019 14:20

Also I simply cannot get my head around the arrogance of politicians not being in parliament during such a crisis time Confused

DGRossetti · 28/08/2019 14:21

At the moment the first one is my biggest concern. Riots are annoying (and terrible for the police involved) but the rest of us can just stay indoors out of the way, rioters get arrested.

That's a tad patronising. Not everywhere is huge squares and parks.

I refer you to my comment about Southall previously. Thousands of innocent people had to hide in their own homes, and hope the police were able to prevent the thugs from spilling down side roads. Plus the death of Blair Peach (likely killed by police, as per usual).

Now that was 45 years ago - truly a different generation. Who knows what todays generation are capable of ?

Hoooo · 28/08/2019 14:21

...and Warrington....

DGRossetti · 28/08/2019 14:22

Also I simply cannot get my head around the arrogance of politicians not being in parliament during such a crisis time

tradition - plain and simple.

wheresmymojo · 28/08/2019 14:23

@MindyStClaire By full on civil war I meant...a war that sweeps the entire UK rather than focused in one area of the UK (albeit with bombs elsewhere).

I have a pretty decent understanding of the Troubles (for someone not involved or in that area) - have read up on it a lot. I wasn't very articulate with my terms but by 'full on' civil war I meant something akin to the Spanish civil war or American civil war. All encompassing.

DGRossetti · 28/08/2019 14:24

Hoooo

sorry - of course. I wanted to hit "post reply" before I started frothing at the insulting idea that England somehow swerved the violence of the Troubles. Just because the government didn't care about it, doesn't mean it didn't happen.

KangaAndRooAndOwl · 28/08/2019 14:24

PMK 😩

DGRossetti · 28/08/2019 14:27

Wars only become "all encompassing" when governments make them so.

There's been a definite shift back to the idea of private armies and less state intervention in wars since Vietnam. Really the states job is to add a veneer of justification while private armies thrash it out. Look at the US military reliance on "consultants".

It's how the British Empire was built, really. Private armies paid for by huge corporations ... the Dutch East India Company was the Google, or Apple of their day.

MindyStClaire · 28/08/2019 14:28

The people of London, Manchester, Guildford, and Birmingham don't count then ?

Well, there were bombs in Dublin and Monaghan too, so yes, more than just NI suffered losses in the Troubles. But I wouldn't say that was the Troubles happening there - it didn't have the constant threat level that NI endured. Every single county in NI other than Fermanagh (population 62K) suffered more deaths than GB, or ROI. While there were of course atrocities, it's disingenuous to compare that to living in a war zone - there used to be gates at the entrance to Royal Avenue (the main shopping street in Belfast) where every single person was searched.

Those of us who didn't live in NI simply didn't experience that, and society in GB and ROI doesn't carry the scars that NI does. I was at a conference recently discussing the mental health impact on the NI population today and it was a sobering experience.

But my point was that when people say "there won't be civil war, maybe just the Troubles in Ireland/NI" a) the Troubles didn't happen in Ireland, they happened almost entirely within the UK, they weren't a foreign thing and b) it was a civil war in the UK.

The current environment is just making a return to that more likely and people brushing it off like it's some inconvenience in another country to be mentioned but not stressed about absolutely incense me.

bellinisurge · 28/08/2019 14:28

"The Troubles never really happened in Ireland, just NI. And that definitely was a civil war in the UK. But people seem to forget that just cos it wasn't their part of the UK."
Tell me that's a sick joke.

Hoooo · 28/08/2019 14:29

I’m sure there won’t be riots in the cotswolds, or Home Counties and if there were the rich residents could just bugger off to their home in France (or wherever) til it blows over and the plebs learn their place.

But in the deprived inner cities?

Yes I can see that happening. What have they got to lose that austerity hasn’t already taken from them?

Why do you think bojo and Tory govt have been trying to make it illegal to prosecute serving soldiers or policemen who have committed atrocities??

Why after years of underfunding suddenly finding that magic money tree and 20,000 more officers?

Come on...you aren’t paying attention.

MitziK · 28/08/2019 14:33

@dgrosetti I was luckier - we had punks squaring up to the NF pricks and football firms down here.

MarshaBradyo · 28/08/2019 14:35

Interesting op

‘They have signed a pledge to set up an alternative parliament if government does prorogue parliament.’ - is this possible?

wheresmymojo · 28/08/2019 14:36

I'm paying attention however I'd be surprised if even 1 of the 20,000 police are in place by 31st October.

I genuinely think policing has changed since the 1980s. I know a fair few police officers and they're just a different breed - very community minded, assertive but basically in the role to do their best for the public.

Plus I've only ever had similar experiences with Police Officers I've met in their professional capacity on marches.

In the 80s Thatcher had them in her pocket. There may be the odd bad apple now (as with all walks of life) but overall I have pretty high confidence in the Police Force.

MindyStClaire · 28/08/2019 14:38

bellini I've expanded my point further down. But I think we've conversed on enough threads about Brexit and the impact on NI to know where I'm coming from.

DGRossetti · 28/08/2019 14:41

Who needs police ? Just sub contract G4S and chums to run the gig and leave it at that. We already know they aren't bound by the ECHR anyway.

woman19 · 28/08/2019 14:45

@sharonodea
@IanDunt

It’s telling that even people on a forum I use to talk about lipstick and skincare are seething and asking about protests

@benirishhome
The Mumsnet forum are apparently very Brexit no deal prepper right now. Threads on stockpiling etc. #TakingBackControl

@GuyMandrell
Probably the most depressing thing I have read all week

@sharonodea
Yup. Maybe 20% of the Mumsnet forum is people talking about stocking up on beans. Middle England is now Quite Cross.

@benirishhome
Sadly doesn’t mean they’re all against it bizarrely. My Leave voting mum thinks we should have left on 29th March as if it was just so easy, but is stockpiling nonetheless

@GuyMandrell
I’m sure you’ve told her she’s just plain wrong. I’ve had similar conversations with other family members on similar points

DGRossetti · 28/08/2019 14:48

I can take no credit, but it seemed apt:

Benito Jonsolini

(from a forum elsewhere, where they don't discuss lipstick ...)

tobee · 28/08/2019 15:03

Just caught Peter Bone MP lying on Sky News. It's all perfectly normal. AngryAngryAngryAngryAngryAngryAngryAngryAngryAngry