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Brexit

Westminstenders: Prorogation

999 replies

RedToothBrush · 28/08/2019 11:10

Its come to this.

Boris Johnson is to ask the Queen for permission to suspend parliament.

There are several legal challenges in the system to prevent this from happening.

It is unlikely to be able to stopped and the Queen is unlikely to intervene either. To do so would expose the Monarchy directly to a political threat which could lead to the downfall of the Crown if the cards lined up. Johnson has deliberate set up the situations where if she does, he is on the 'side of the people' whilst she is on the 'side of the establishment'. If she does nothing, she might be exposed still but none action, can be spun as political neutrality.

As David Allen Green points out:
^David Allen Green @davidallengreen
This is now the realm of pure politics

No court is likely to intervene - and it is not obvious what remedy a court could even grant so as to satisfactorily resolve the matter

"Not justiciable" as judges sometimes say

As we have seen so far, the opposition have been completely outclassed when it comes to 'pure politics' partly because of tribalism, partly because they lacked the capacity to understand and imagine how bad this could get - they never thought Johnson would go this far (massive tactical mistake) and partly because they so far do not understand whats driving this and have not produced and alternative narrative and explaination to counter those social and political fractures. Indeed everything they are doing is only serving to reinforce and widen those rifts and their complete lack of self awareness has been to blame. Johnson not only sees these fractures, he understands them, knows how to exploit them and most importantly is willing to do anything to retain power.

Authoritarians are always driven by this lust for power and are won't stop for anything. Thats why they are so dangerous and why checks and balances were put into the system. The trouble is the opposition didn't read the signs and are flapping in the wind now its reached the point where they suddenly realise its too far gone to be able to do much. The runaway train is firmly off the rails.

This all comes a day after the opposition apparently have agree a strategy to oppose No Deal. Which seems to include a VoNC. Remember this will always require Tory Rebels as even working together the Opposition haven't got the numbers - especially considering there are a few Labour Brexiteers.

This is being framed as a coalition of anti-democrats (which is something of a contradiction on several levels) by the government and the Brexit Party.

They have signed a pledge to set up an alternative parliament if government does prorogue parliament. This is full on civil war era stuff aka as a full blown constitutional crisis. Its actively into dangerous terrority. And as such, we very much into talking about the very real possibility of civil unrest. This is no longer something that can be considered hyperbole.

The timetable of this would see parliament prorogued just a few days into September (next week), closed to prepare for a new Queen's Speech and returning around the 17th October remembering the crucial final EU sumit on the 17th October. A VoNC doesn't necessarily mean the government will go though. There is no legal requirement to force the government to stand down. We may yet end up with a situation of two governments claiming legitmacy at the same time in late October. Prime Ministers Corbyn and Johnson.

A GE might eventually be the result of such a constitutional crisis but we would be way past 31st October before that happens.

Would we end up with an extension in such circumstances? Well the Prime Minister has to ask for one formally from the EU and the EU have to agree to one.

The problem being, who do the EU recognise as our PM?

We also have things coming into legal effect on the 1st November which would otherwise need revoking by parliament.

Which Parliament?

Things are going to get very very messy indeed.

OP posts:
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Camomila · 29/08/2019 11:21

'That goes against everything those men who waded onto those beaches fought & died for - and I will not have it'

Polticians need to say a lot more things like this IMO in the battle for 'hearts and minds' Appeal to people's sense of honour/pride etc. because logic doesn't seem to have worked so far.

DGRossetti · 29/08/2019 11:26

Musing yesterday, I was thinking a lot of avid Brexiteers will have a real shock when they get exposed up close and personal to the US way of doing things. Obviously US courts will take precedence, and a lot of things companies have gotten away with so far will cause a lot of issues.

Class action lawsuits being one area that springs to mind.

ListeningQuietly · 29/08/2019 11:28

nikita
Nope, I think Ruth will take this opportunity to steer clear of the Tory name for couple of years - she is not in Westminster after all

a bit like some of the Labour big beasts who found other places to be when JC came in

BigChocFrenzy · 29/08/2019 11:29

BJ won't, but the WA is maybe the only way that an interim PM could stop No Deal,
since the Tories would win a GE and then just continue with ND

i.e. Corbyn or whoever is chosen as interim PM and then puts the WA to a vote,
if they think the votes are there, this time

That Brexits, which fulfills the ref, but stops No Deal and gives time to sort out next steps

  • and the EU might also agree to changing the dates in the WA, since we have used up several months of what would have been transition
JustHereWithMyPopcorn · 29/08/2019 11:32

I want to email my MP about how furious I am regarding this but I'm really bad at expressing myself when I'm angry. Anyone got any hints and tips of what to write??

DGRossetti · 29/08/2019 11:34

www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/brexit-backlash-begins-as-scottish-tory-leader-quits/ar-AAGtixN

Boris Johnson is facing a Brexit backlash after suspending parliament - and the fightback is starting with the Tories' Scottish leader Ruth Davidson poised to explain her shock resignation.

Her decision to quit emerged just hours after the prime minister's big announcement. It is a huge blow for Mr Johnson and could cost him up to a dozen seats in Scotland in a general election.

Senior Tories are citing two reasons for Ms Davidson's resignation: "family and Boris". She recently returned to work from maternity leave after becoming the mother of a son, Finn, with her partner, Jen Wilson

But she is a passionate Remainer and in the 2016 EU referendum campaign clashed with Mr Johnson in a TV debate. She is also a fierce opponent of a no-deal Brexit.

In the Tory leadership contest this summer she backed Sajid Javid and then Jeremy Hunt. And when she had a tense and awkward meeting with Mr Johnson after his victory she told him bluntly she could not support no deal.

Her resignation will be a massive worry for the Tories. She is credited with the Conservatives' comeback in Scotland in the 2017 general election, when they won 13 seats which helped Theresa May cling to power.

In the House of Commons, the anti no-deal fightback against Mr Johnson's suspension of parliament will now be accelerated, according to the former Chancellor, Philip Hammond, cheerleader of a cross-party bid to derail a no-deal Brexit.

"A number of my colleagues would have preferred to wait and move in late September," said Mr Hammond. "That will now not be possible. We will have to try to do something when parliament returns next week."

CatherineOfAragonsPrayerBook · 29/08/2019 11:39

I was disapointed with Ruth Davidson resignation speech. Not impressed by her 'for my son/family' line, really? You have 1 child. Plus her insistance that everybody just get behind any deal thats brought next to parliament.

prettybird · 29/08/2019 11:41

Ruth Davison is leaving now so she can return later

I agree - when she can do so without the yoke of BloJob Wink Having said that, re her stated belief that BloJob wants a deal: she is no fool, so that means she's a liar Hmm

With any luck Having said that she won't campaign for the next GE or the next Holyrood election, it's possible that her "come back" will have to be as the leader of a new & rejuvenated purely Scottish Conservative Party in an independent Scotland Grin And I think she would would be quite successful at that (but not enough to win Wink).

She's fortunate/unfortunate (depending on her perspective Wink) that she was parachuted into a Constituency MSP seat rather than a List one. If it was a List seat, she could step down and the next Conservative on the list would become the MSP. As a constituency MSP, resignation would trigger a by-election, which the SNP would just love to contest! Grin

GeistohneGrenzen · 29/08/2019 11:43

Camomila I believe that poster was referring to something posted by you earlier today - can't find the whole post just now.
'By Camomila : Oh thank goodness Sequenedslippers I wander ho..."

howabout · 29/08/2019 11:45

I wonder if Ruth is considering a move to Westminster as an MP in the future.

FWIW her resignation doesn't surprise me. She really didn't look like she was champing at the bit to be back after mat leave.

wheresmymojo · 29/08/2019 11:49

I think people are still in a lot of denial (talking general public, not this thread) about where our politics is now.

People have spent the past couple of years thinking Trumpism 'can't happen here' despite evidence it already was. Just with a posh voice and its own hair.

Lots of people have been in denial because our Trumps are a British 'version of'...and because their lies are less ridiculously obvious.

James Patrick has a spot on Tweet today...will go dig it out (it has a very Mumsnetty hand drawn diagram!)

wheresmymojo · 29/08/2019 11:52

FWIW her resignation doesn't surprise me. She really didn't look like she was champing at the bit to be back after mat leave.

She's the kind of Tory a centrist like me could actually vote for. A proper leader IMO - principled and with integrity.

I hope our politics doesn't go so far as to prevent people like her being able to run in the future. Principles, ethics and integrity can also be a practical weakness when you're up against arseholes completely devoid of those things who don't play by any form of fair play rules.

Apileofballyhoo · 29/08/2019 11:54

In general, it's much cheaper, and also more powerful, to feed your supporters on a culture war than to do things which actually benefit them economically and might cut into your own economic advantage.

I wonder who's been reading up on Chairman Mao lately.

Camomila · 29/08/2019 11:56

Aah I get it Geisto :)

CrunchyCarrot · 29/08/2019 11:57

I don't know how Johnson can bring back the WA as it is anyway, because he's said he wants to get rid of the backstop. Perhaps that's just smoke and mirrors. Honestly the man is so slippery!

Also apparently if there's any legislation re an No Deal put into the works in the 4 days that Parliament will have to get it through, once Parliament is prorogued anything that hasn't been passed is basically thrown out. So they've got to get legislation passed in just 4 days, and that means through the HoL as well, where they may try to filibuster it so it doesn't make it.

DarlingNikita · 29/08/2019 12:02

ListeningQuietly, after Johnson has gone, you mean? Sensible woman if so.

Crunchy, I think pretty much everything Johnson does is smoke and mirrors. I've given up trying to second-guess him.

DGRossetti · 29/08/2019 12:06

I hope our politics doesn't go so far as to prevent people like her being able to run in the future.

Already there, I'm afraid. No one is allowed rehabilitation in the Brave New World. Wait until the generation that had their infancy published on Facebook try and get into politics ...

How can we trust a person who wasn't toilet trained until 4 ?

(I tried to make that up, but I have a vague Veep bell in my head)

OublietteBravo · 29/08/2019 12:09

Hello! I dropped off these threads a while back. Too much going on at work to keep up. I’m currently on holiday (I always seem to be out of the country when significant Brexit events happen), and joining in again. Or at least PMK with that in mind...

verticality · 29/08/2019 12:09

"I don't know how Johnson can bring back the WA as it is anyway, because he's said he wants to get rid of the backstop."

This is an option he could theoretically follow if the legislative efforts to prevent no deal succeed. The route would be to try to revert to the backstop in its original form (i.e. to follow EU customs rules at the NI border), which the EU would agree to, but which would enrage the nutjob DUP, who forced Theresa May to agree that there had to be the same rules for the whole of the UK.

I can't see it being all that politically likely for, though. In almost every scenario - including this one - we face a general election in the next 3 months. He enters that election in a stronger position if he has not done this than if he has. Even though it would represent a more responsible course of action, I can't see him putting country over power.

wheresmymojo · 29/08/2019 12:11

Apologies if already posted, catching up on today - referenced James Patrick tweet in pics.

Westminstenders: Prorogation
Westminstenders: Prorogation
Hazardtired · 29/08/2019 12:16

Eh. Fuck.

MotherOfSoupDragons · 29/08/2019 12:20

I feel the same, CatherineofAragon.

Sarahlou63 · 29/08/2019 12:21

Interesting that since announcing running for PM, Johnson's minders (Cummings and others, I guess?) are keeping him on a very, very tight leash. Only one PMQ, no press other than the short prerecorded interview, no interview with Ch4. Presumably he will face PMQ on Wednesday?

PerkingFaintly · 29/08/2019 12:21

Here's that James Patrick tweet, (sorry, sans diagram):
twitter.com/J_amesp/status/1166965322752167936?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

@J_amesp
Follow Follow @J_amesp
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People are still operating under the assumption there is a defined connection between what the government message is and what it does, interplay.

The reality is that messaging is only for reaction while the action itself is played out separately and held away. As doodled:

TemporaryPermanent · 29/08/2019 12:23

Surely Ruth Davidson is going for a Westminster seat and ultimately for leadership?

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