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Brexit

Westminstenders: Prorogation

999 replies

RedToothBrush · 28/08/2019 11:10

Its come to this.

Boris Johnson is to ask the Queen for permission to suspend parliament.

There are several legal challenges in the system to prevent this from happening.

It is unlikely to be able to stopped and the Queen is unlikely to intervene either. To do so would expose the Monarchy directly to a political threat which could lead to the downfall of the Crown if the cards lined up. Johnson has deliberate set up the situations where if she does, he is on the 'side of the people' whilst she is on the 'side of the establishment'. If she does nothing, she might be exposed still but none action, can be spun as political neutrality.

As David Allen Green points out:
^David Allen Green @davidallengreen
This is now the realm of pure politics

No court is likely to intervene - and it is not obvious what remedy a court could even grant so as to satisfactorily resolve the matter

"Not justiciable" as judges sometimes say

As we have seen so far, the opposition have been completely outclassed when it comes to 'pure politics' partly because of tribalism, partly because they lacked the capacity to understand and imagine how bad this could get - they never thought Johnson would go this far (massive tactical mistake) and partly because they so far do not understand whats driving this and have not produced and alternative narrative and explaination to counter those social and political fractures. Indeed everything they are doing is only serving to reinforce and widen those rifts and their complete lack of self awareness has been to blame. Johnson not only sees these fractures, he understands them, knows how to exploit them and most importantly is willing to do anything to retain power.

Authoritarians are always driven by this lust for power and are won't stop for anything. Thats why they are so dangerous and why checks and balances were put into the system. The trouble is the opposition didn't read the signs and are flapping in the wind now its reached the point where they suddenly realise its too far gone to be able to do much. The runaway train is firmly off the rails.

This all comes a day after the opposition apparently have agree a strategy to oppose No Deal. Which seems to include a VoNC. Remember this will always require Tory Rebels as even working together the Opposition haven't got the numbers - especially considering there are a few Labour Brexiteers.

This is being framed as a coalition of anti-democrats (which is something of a contradiction on several levels) by the government and the Brexit Party.

They have signed a pledge to set up an alternative parliament if government does prorogue parliament. This is full on civil war era stuff aka as a full blown constitutional crisis. Its actively into dangerous terrority. And as such, we very much into talking about the very real possibility of civil unrest. This is no longer something that can be considered hyperbole.

The timetable of this would see parliament prorogued just a few days into September (next week), closed to prepare for a new Queen's Speech and returning around the 17th October remembering the crucial final EU sumit on the 17th October. A VoNC doesn't necessarily mean the government will go though. There is no legal requirement to force the government to stand down. We may yet end up with a situation of two governments claiming legitmacy at the same time in late October. Prime Ministers Corbyn and Johnson.

A GE might eventually be the result of such a constitutional crisis but we would be way past 31st October before that happens.

Would we end up with an extension in such circumstances? Well the Prime Minister has to ask for one formally from the EU and the EU have to agree to one.

The problem being, who do the EU recognise as our PM?

We also have things coming into legal effect on the 1st November which would otherwise need revoking by parliament.

Which Parliament?

Things are going to get very very messy indeed.

OP posts:
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BigChocFrenzy · 29/08/2019 09:54

German & Belgium media have the theme of a "very British coup"

German colleague, proud SPD 4th generation, warned of the comparisons to their Weimar republic collapsing

UK reputation down the toilet, but the protests are in the news too

Westminstenders: Prorogation
berlinbabylon · 29/08/2019 09:54

On facial recognition, there has recently been a case in Sweden fining a school for using it. It's not a peculiarly UK thing.

TheElementsSong · 29/08/2019 09:55

It feels completely useless, but I've written to my MP, and will be going to the flash protest in my city tonight.

berlinbabylon · 29/08/2019 09:55

Sorry it wasn't the school, it was the local authority for monitoring school attendance.

BigChocFrenzy · 29/08/2019 09:58

but a UK thing to make such things legal & more

and only the UK has such a fascination with beating their children - this part of the electorate doesn't seem to exist in significant numbers elsewhere

Myriade · 29/08/2019 09:58

@merrymouse, what I was trying to say is that BJ take over, his attitude etc... isnt a consequence of brexit. Its the follow on from a slow change over may many years that has made his acts possible iyswim.

the UK you decribe is the one I saw when I came here. Im struggling to see it now. But all this started much before we even started to talk about IndyRef and Brexit. (At the time I was told I was bonkers to be worried too)

JustAnotherPoster00 · 29/08/2019 10:00

In addition the people defending the proroguing have been taken in hook line and sinker by the repeated fallacy that it is only 4 days.

Can you imagine the collective shit that would be lost by the unbiased media if Corbyn prorogued parliament for half an hour let alone weeks

I hope Corbyn gets in so he can implement Leveson 2

BigChocFrenzy · 29/08/2019 10:00

Lewis Goodall@lewis_goodall

It’s disingenuous to claim Parliament is only losing four days

-Commons would probably have voted to sit in conf recess
-Queen’s Speech (and associated days of debate) will consume a lot of time
-we don’t know date of prorogation. Just that it’ll be “second week of September.”

Peregrina · 29/08/2019 10:02

At a time too when Parliament should be recalled....

Please some Tory MPs - those who still have integrity - jump ship to being Independent and destroy Johnson's majority.

BigChocFrenzy · 29/08/2019 10:02

Poster As you know, I can't stand Corbyn

However, if he gets in a year or so, after a prolonged No Deal economic crash,
I would have ZERO sympathy for Tory whinges if he shut down Parliament while he nationalises everything up to the royal corgis

BigChocFrenzy · 29/08/2019 10:03

and brings in 100% IHT !

Myriade · 29/08/2019 10:03

berlinbabylon the difference is that tere is a legal system to protect people there (hence the fine). In the UK, there is NOTHING about facial recognition, which is why the Met has decided to stop using it until it is given 'some guidance' but anyone can still do it legally. There is no boundaries or rules to ensure the population is protected.
Its very different that in other countries where the rules of what, where, when and for how long are clearly stated and enforced.

I suppose that when you have lived through the WWII and seeing people next to you being labelled, registers being used to find Jews etc... then people are more careful to put things in place so it never happens again.

Myriade · 29/08/2019 10:04

Btw we now know why BJ hasnt asked Parliament to stop their holidays and come back early to work on the difficult subject that Brexit is....

JustAnotherPoster00 · 29/08/2019 10:05

BCF

Nationalised Royal Corgi's Grin Grin Grin

Peregrina · 29/08/2019 10:07

I suppose that when you have lived through the WWII and seeing people next to you being labelled, registers being used to find Jews etc... then people are more careful to put things in place so it never happens again.

Absolutely, and I am sick and tired of people saying "It couldn't happen here". It can and it is doing.

NigellasGuest · 29/08/2019 10:18

Dominic Greive is on LBC. He’s not prepared to tell the presenter his plans as he doesn’t want to forewarn Bozo. He’s up to something though

This. I heard that interview too. They must be planning something, they must be

merrymouse · 29/08/2019 10:20

the UK you decribe is the one I saw when I came here. Im struggling to see it now.

I think you have to remember that until 2015 the Conservatives hadn't won a majority since the early 90's and Cameron only won his short lived majority in the after glow of coalition with the more liberal Lib Dems.

In theory we should be approaching the 2020 general election after 5 years of Cameron, but it looks as though, having whittled their working majority down to 1 and dependent on the DUP, the Conservatives won't even make it that far before having to shore up support with another election.

Thatcher and Blair had mass support, but this government really doesn't.

Peregrina · 29/08/2019 10:24

I assume that if Johnson gets away with his proroguing stunt and introduces new legislation via the Queen's speech, it could still get voted down? He's not got a majority, and when that is the case I believe the normal conventions don't apply.

As an aside, I am loving how the Leavers are very quiet, or making excuses. Excuses that they wouldn't make for a Corbyn Government.

BigChocFrenzy · 29/08/2019 10:25

Let's hope Grieve & co are finally planning something effective - which means something legally binding and bringing 321+ MPs on board

The only faint encouragement atm:

Would even BJ's govt prorogue Parliament unless they thought it could possibly thwart their plans ? Hmm

  • All this flak, if they only needed to sit on their hands until 11 pm 31 October
merrymouse · 29/08/2019 10:26

Myriade France has its fair share of right wing nut jobs.

merrymouse · 29/08/2019 10:30

He's not got a majority, and when that is the case I believe the normal conventions don't apply.

Exactly - arguing that this is all normal for a new government is ridiculous when he doesn't have a majority.

Also ridiculous to pretend that anything is more pressing than sorting out Brexit, or that following 'No Deal' he'd be busy dealing with education policy, not scrambling for support to sort out the mess.

BigChocFrenzy · 29/08/2019 10:34

merrymouse What is really worrying is the indication of a huge Tory surge, which would mean voters in a crisis turning en masse to rightwing authoritarianism

  • and voting that way in the next GE, which can't be that long away when the govt only has a majority of 1

The problem is that even if Corbyn takes over for a couple of weeks, gets an extension and calls a GE,
the Tories could get in with a large, or at least working, majority on a manifesto for No Deal

There is no effective way for the HoC to force BJ to genuinely ask for an extension - he only has to tell the EU the UK would be deliberately disruptive and they'd refuse.

ListeningQuietly · 29/08/2019 10:35

PMK to say

I had planned not to go to the 19th October March as I could not see the point.
Now I know I have to go.
And between now and then I will go to every local event I can.

If we tolerate this, we are culpable for what will happen.

fedup21 · 29/08/2019 10:35

Cabinet minister Michael Gove added the suspension, which was approved by the Queen on Wednesday, was "certainly not" a political move to obstruct opposition to the UK leaving the EU without a deal.

Quite from BBC news article.

If it’s not to obstruct, why are they doing it??

bellinisurge · 29/08/2019 10:40

Labour guy on Sky News has just said "Johnson is not being a dictator, he's just being a dick". Love it!