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Brexit

Westminstenders: Prorogation

999 replies

RedToothBrush · 28/08/2019 11:10

Its come to this.

Boris Johnson is to ask the Queen for permission to suspend parliament.

There are several legal challenges in the system to prevent this from happening.

It is unlikely to be able to stopped and the Queen is unlikely to intervene either. To do so would expose the Monarchy directly to a political threat which could lead to the downfall of the Crown if the cards lined up. Johnson has deliberate set up the situations where if she does, he is on the 'side of the people' whilst she is on the 'side of the establishment'. If she does nothing, she might be exposed still but none action, can be spun as political neutrality.

As David Allen Green points out:
^David Allen Green @davidallengreen
This is now the realm of pure politics

No court is likely to intervene - and it is not obvious what remedy a court could even grant so as to satisfactorily resolve the matter

"Not justiciable" as judges sometimes say

As we have seen so far, the opposition have been completely outclassed when it comes to 'pure politics' partly because of tribalism, partly because they lacked the capacity to understand and imagine how bad this could get - they never thought Johnson would go this far (massive tactical mistake) and partly because they so far do not understand whats driving this and have not produced and alternative narrative and explaination to counter those social and political fractures. Indeed everything they are doing is only serving to reinforce and widen those rifts and their complete lack of self awareness has been to blame. Johnson not only sees these fractures, he understands them, knows how to exploit them and most importantly is willing to do anything to retain power.

Authoritarians are always driven by this lust for power and are won't stop for anything. Thats why they are so dangerous and why checks and balances were put into the system. The trouble is the opposition didn't read the signs and are flapping in the wind now its reached the point where they suddenly realise its too far gone to be able to do much. The runaway train is firmly off the rails.

This all comes a day after the opposition apparently have agree a strategy to oppose No Deal. Which seems to include a VoNC. Remember this will always require Tory Rebels as even working together the Opposition haven't got the numbers - especially considering there are a few Labour Brexiteers.

This is being framed as a coalition of anti-democrats (which is something of a contradiction on several levels) by the government and the Brexit Party.

They have signed a pledge to set up an alternative parliament if government does prorogue parliament. This is full on civil war era stuff aka as a full blown constitutional crisis. Its actively into dangerous terrority. And as such, we very much into talking about the very real possibility of civil unrest. This is no longer something that can be considered hyperbole.

The timetable of this would see parliament prorogued just a few days into September (next week), closed to prepare for a new Queen's Speech and returning around the 17th October remembering the crucial final EU sumit on the 17th October. A VoNC doesn't necessarily mean the government will go though. There is no legal requirement to force the government to stand down. We may yet end up with a situation of two governments claiming legitmacy at the same time in late October. Prime Ministers Corbyn and Johnson.

A GE might eventually be the result of such a constitutional crisis but we would be way past 31st October before that happens.

Would we end up with an extension in such circumstances? Well the Prime Minister has to ask for one formally from the EU and the EU have to agree to one.

The problem being, who do the EU recognise as our PM?

We also have things coming into legal effect on the 1st November which would otherwise need revoking by parliament.

Which Parliament?

Things are going to get very very messy indeed.

OP posts:
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Camomila · 29/08/2019 08:03

Oh thank goodness Sequenedslippers I wander how long it will last.

Motheroffourdragons · 29/08/2019 08:05

This reply has been withdrawn

This has been withdrawn by MNHQ on behalf of the poster.

Motheroffourdragons · 29/08/2019 08:08

This reply has been withdrawn

This has been withdrawn by MNHQ on behalf of the poster.

RedToothBrush · 29/08/2019 08:12

Daniel Hannan @danieljhannan
I have had constituency cases of EU nationals being denied settled status despite living here for years. This is a breach of the assurances I and other Leavers gave during the referendum. Please help sort this out @patel4witham before we end up with another Windrush scandal.

Interesting...

OP posts:
RedToothBrush · 29/08/2019 08:14

David Allen Green@davidallengreen
Some are claiming this prorogation is acceptable

But:

  1. Prorogation is different from recess: prorogation shuts down all parliamentary activity
  1. Recess, and its length, is voted for by MPs, and not by PM fiat
  1. These six weeks are crucial in short time left before 31/10

The UK is on the verge of one of the significant events in modern British history - departure from EU without any deal

Nobody in good faith can say it is acceptable for Parliament to be shut down completely for six of the few weeks left

There is no good reason for this

Put simply

Boris Johnson is not a politician who needs a reason to close down all parliamentary scrutiny for as long as possible

He just needs an excuse

He is that sort of politician, and he has shown this in one of his very first acts

This hateful prorogation defines him

OP posts:
woman19 · 29/08/2019 08:17

Whatever it may be out of the above, it's certainly not ABH or GBH. You clearly have no idea how bad a beating has to be to reach those levels of charge. It may be assault, but it's exceptionally unlikely to reach the quoted levels

On the contrary. OAP 1861

Assault causing actual bodily harm (ABH) is a criminal offence under Section 47 of the Offences Against the Person Act. ABH involves assault or battery causing actual physical harm to the victim. The harm does not have to be serious, but must involve more than a shove to sustain a charge of ABH. Harm such as bruises, scratches and bite marks is sufficient

ABH only requires an intention to apply unlawful force to someone, not an intention to cause actual bodily harm. For instance, if someone pushes the victim who then hits his head against a wall, he will have intended to apply unlawful force and could be charged with ABH – even if he did not intend the victim to hurt their head

Assault causing grievous bodily harm (GBH) is a criminal offence under Sections 18 and 20 of the Offences Against the Person Act. There must be “really serious harm” caused to the victim as a result of the assault or battery. If there was an intention to cause some pain or harm but not to inflict the “really serious harm”, a Section 20 offence of “wounding with intent” will have been committed

Adults attacking children is wrong. In schools it is unforgiveable.

That's why this was outlawed thanks to the EU in 1986.

But it's probably hugely popular with the brexist demographic; should be good for several % points.

merrymouse · 29/08/2019 08:18

Depending on which electoral calculus model you use, the last four opinion polls have either revealed that the Tories would win a majority in every case

Looking at the result of 2017, I understand that May was unpopular for many reasons, but when she called the election it looked like she had everything to gain and nothing to lose.

Corbyn is more unpopular now than he was in 2017 but it's difficult to see how Johnson can increase his support to the left, or why people who voted Labour in the last GE would switch their vote if they thought that would increase the likelihood of a Tory win. I think Corbyn's lacklustre support for Remain has lost him a lot of his 'Glastonbury' support, but I don't think those followers are less politically engaged and it's not clear who else they would vote for.

If the next election is going to be about magic money trees for all, why assume Johnson is more likely to deliver than Corbyn?

I think any single party political majority would depend on getting the support of 2017 non-voters - but how easy is it to get polling data from those people?

prettybird · 29/08/2019 08:20

What was it that Tusk said when the 6 month extension to 31 October was agreed? Please don't waste it ???? Hmm

I recall that there was resistance at the time amongst some in the E27 about giving the UK is such a long extension (May was only asking to end of June, iirc). The EU Parliament elections were one of the contributory complications.

The other more important reason was that it gave the EU more time to prepare Smile Just as the much derided Neville Chamberlin's "Peace in our time" bought the UK more time to prepare for the coming storm.

The EU hasn't waste the time Sad

More parallels Angry

woman19 · 29/08/2019 08:32

I think Corbyn's lacklustre support for Remain has lost him a lot of his 'Glastonbury' support
That may well have changed since last night. Many prominent Labour MPs and media speakers present with OFOC and other people at the Westminster event: Owen Jones (who have a stirring speech), Abbott, Mc Donnell, Starmer.

The prorogation is uniting many previously disparate groups. Almost definitely too late, but useful for future reference.

prettybird · 29/08/2019 08:32

Listening to a political commentator on BBC Breakfast who uses the justification for prorogation that "If we are in the biggest crisis [since WW2] then it takes a big thing to deal with it"

So....... shutting down our parliamentary democracy is "the big thing" for how to
deal with the "crisis" Confused - which has been brought about by pesky Parliamentarians questioning a government without a working majority. Angry

Riiiiiiight Hmm

Peregrina · 29/08/2019 08:34

They have to get moderate Tories on board. We need more Tories speaking out against Johnson's actions. Ideally a more moderate Leaver.

BigChocFrenzy · 29/08/2019 08:36

Sample of the highly critical reaction from German media:

Helene von Bismarck@HeleneBismarck

From top journalist at Germany’s most influential (centre-right) tabloid:

“This is insane:

Johnson wants to make himself the sole embodiment of the will of the people by silencing the people’s representatives and suspending Parliament.”

Nikolaus Blomee@NikolausBlome*

Irre: Weil er sich zum alleinigen Vollstrecker von Volkes Wille erheben will, macht Boris #Johnson die Vertreter des Volkes mundtot und vertagt das Parlament

BigChocFrenzy · 29/08/2019 08:38

Though I expect the hard right across Europe are noting down for future reference BJ's way of shutting down opposition

BigChocFrenzy · 29/08/2019 08:39

Lewis Goodall@lewis_goodall

Most European countries have much more history than us of democracy/politics going completely wrong.

They don’t like the echoes.

SistemaAddict · 29/08/2019 08:40

Who is ms stripey shirt on bbc news talking to Ian Blackford? She's rude!

InMySpareTime · 29/08/2019 08:40

If it's a new parliamentary session after the proroguing, does that mean that the Cherry amendment could be re-presented (perhaps with a different name on the top)?
Giving parliament the choice between WA/No Deal is not the same as the choice between WA/Revoke. The default position does not have to be No Deal.

Peregrina · 29/08/2019 08:40

So....... shutting down our parliamentary democracy is "the big thing" for how to deal with the "crisis"

So change the narrative and assume that Corbyn had won a GE. Would his proroguing Parliament have been lauded in the same way?

prettybird · 29/08/2019 08:40

Surprisingly, Daniel Hannan is tweeting about problems that EU citizens in his constituency are having with getting their Settled Status.

It's a start Wink

prettybird · 29/08/2019 08:42

I said the same thing to dh this morning Peregrina Sad

Can you imagine the outrage? Shock

SistemaAddict · 29/08/2019 08:42

Morning. Just catching up and drinking tea. Sending virtual Valium to all Gin

BigChocFrenzy · 29/08/2019 08:42

Yannis of London@iGlinavos

1967 in Greece a group of mid ranking army officers succeeded in suspending democratic processes to 'save the nation'.

They were incompetent fanatics.

They lasted 7 years during which they rained destruction on the very nation they supposedly worshipped

bellinisurge · 29/08/2019 08:44

@Bercows , that's Naga Munchetty. I saw that. The BBC is trying really hard to avoid claims of journalistic bias. So being a bit shirty is part of that.

PerkingFaintly · 29/08/2019 08:44

Yeah, my jaw hangeth open at Hannan's tweet.

merrymouse · 29/08/2019 08:50

Surprisingly, Daniel Hannan is tweeting about problems that EU citizens in his constituency are having with getting their Settled Status.

Good luck with that Daniel - Johnson has no administrative ability (see parking tickets on his car, the bridge debacle) and in an effort to surround himself with loyalists has a cabinet stuffed with people promoted beyond their ability.

Another Windrush type scandal is inevitable.

BigChocFrenzy · 29/08/2019 08:54

A few people will be preparing their alibis "it wasn't me"
Like Hannan is doing