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Brexit

Westminstenders: Prorogation

999 replies

RedToothBrush · 28/08/2019 11:10

Its come to this.

Boris Johnson is to ask the Queen for permission to suspend parliament.

There are several legal challenges in the system to prevent this from happening.

It is unlikely to be able to stopped and the Queen is unlikely to intervene either. To do so would expose the Monarchy directly to a political threat which could lead to the downfall of the Crown if the cards lined up. Johnson has deliberate set up the situations where if she does, he is on the 'side of the people' whilst she is on the 'side of the establishment'. If she does nothing, she might be exposed still but none action, can be spun as political neutrality.

As David Allen Green points out:
^David Allen Green @davidallengreen
This is now the realm of pure politics

No court is likely to intervene - and it is not obvious what remedy a court could even grant so as to satisfactorily resolve the matter

"Not justiciable" as judges sometimes say

As we have seen so far, the opposition have been completely outclassed when it comes to 'pure politics' partly because of tribalism, partly because they lacked the capacity to understand and imagine how bad this could get - they never thought Johnson would go this far (massive tactical mistake) and partly because they so far do not understand whats driving this and have not produced and alternative narrative and explaination to counter those social and political fractures. Indeed everything they are doing is only serving to reinforce and widen those rifts and their complete lack of self awareness has been to blame. Johnson not only sees these fractures, he understands them, knows how to exploit them and most importantly is willing to do anything to retain power.

Authoritarians are always driven by this lust for power and are won't stop for anything. Thats why they are so dangerous and why checks and balances were put into the system. The trouble is the opposition didn't read the signs and are flapping in the wind now its reached the point where they suddenly realise its too far gone to be able to do much. The runaway train is firmly off the rails.

This all comes a day after the opposition apparently have agree a strategy to oppose No Deal. Which seems to include a VoNC. Remember this will always require Tory Rebels as even working together the Opposition haven't got the numbers - especially considering there are a few Labour Brexiteers.

This is being framed as a coalition of anti-democrats (which is something of a contradiction on several levels) by the government and the Brexit Party.

They have signed a pledge to set up an alternative parliament if government does prorogue parliament. This is full on civil war era stuff aka as a full blown constitutional crisis. Its actively into dangerous terrority. And as such, we very much into talking about the very real possibility of civil unrest. This is no longer something that can be considered hyperbole.

The timetable of this would see parliament prorogued just a few days into September (next week), closed to prepare for a new Queen's Speech and returning around the 17th October remembering the crucial final EU sumit on the 17th October. A VoNC doesn't necessarily mean the government will go though. There is no legal requirement to force the government to stand down. We may yet end up with a situation of two governments claiming legitmacy at the same time in late October. Prime Ministers Corbyn and Johnson.

A GE might eventually be the result of such a constitutional crisis but we would be way past 31st October before that happens.

Would we end up with an extension in such circumstances? Well the Prime Minister has to ask for one formally from the EU and the EU have to agree to one.

The problem being, who do the EU recognise as our PM?

We also have things coming into legal effect on the 1st November which would otherwise need revoking by parliament.

Which Parliament?

Things are going to get very very messy indeed.

OP posts:
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CordeliaWyndamPryce · 29/08/2019 01:12

I'm labour(ish) and I'd think it would be far, far better if a caretaker PM was someone from the back benches. Labour has, IMO, been just as bad for putting party before country as the Tories. My personal preference would actually be a moderate Tory leave-with-a-deal person.

BigChocFrenzy · 29/08/2019 01:15

Louise At most 20-30 Tories (optimistically) would vote to replace a Tory PM

Even with all the SNP + LDems + Remainer Independents, simple arithmatic means that getting a majority for another PM would require the votes of all Labour MPs who are not hard Brexiters

Constitutionally, it is the Leader of the Opposition who would be turned to first, as the alternative PM
That's why he has regular civil service briefings, to keep him ready to take over

BigChocFrenzy · 29/08/2019 01:21

The problem is the lack of time for 321+ MPs to coalesce around someone other than Corbyn.
Also ....

"If Labour members are so committed to averting no deal"

I may be cynical about their committment,
but once the effects of No Deal really bite, after a year or so, this could wreck the Tory party for a generation.
No Deal could be Labour's best ever chance for decades of power

So, I suspect Labour won't go any further than Corbyn's proposal

CordeliaWyndamPryce · 29/08/2019 01:22

Not beyond the wit of the brexist to research more deeply, oh wait a minute

I'm not a brexit supporter and insulting my intelligence is unnecessary. If you have the source saying it is to be used as punishment, please link it.

woman19 · 29/08/2019 01:42

No. We've done enough work trying to fix this mess the brexists have made. Have a look yourself; it's tory/ukip policy. Reasonable force as 'discipline'. Punishment in other words.
Child abuse.

SequinnedSlippers · 29/08/2019 01:43

In Italy, the Five Star Movement and the Democratic Party have formed an alliance in order to keep the far right out of power:
New Government Takes Shape in Italy, Sidelining Salvini and the Hard Right

Hazardtired · 29/08/2019 02:00

There's good teachers, okay teachers and bad teachers. The latter will always find an excuse. The former would never hurt a child even if it's legal.

This was 20 years ago but I was "restrained" repeatedly as in nearly daily for 6 months by teachers in the 90s. The teacher informed me she was a believer in corporal punishment but she wasn't allowed to hit me these days Hmm

Oddly it stopped when I kicked off and she had a justifiable reason to restrain me but couldn't because I was violently attacking her.

Her reputation remained unscathed, mine not so much but I was left alone after that and was very popular.

So not a fan of restraining children.

Loletta · 29/08/2019 03:09

PMK from Japan. Finally on free WiFi. Planning to catch up with this thread while you're all sleeping.

borntobequiet · 29/08/2019 05:43

I’m going to a protest near my work this evening and to London on Sat. Happy to meet up with anyone else going to London.

NoWordForFluffy · 29/08/2019 06:32

It's G/ABH, child abuse, illegal and in breach of ECHR.

Whatever it may be out of the above, it's certainly not ABH or GBH. You clearly have no idea how bad a beating has to be to reach those levels of charge. It may be assault, but it's exceptionally unlikely to reach the quoted levels.

Using hyperbole to make a point somewhat devalues the point. As does insulting people who are discussing it with you. (Before you accuse me of supporting the alleged moves - I've not read it and don't have time right now - I don't, I'm simply correcting your use of legal terminology, which is incorrect. I have small children, so of course I don't agree with punishment by reasonable force in schools.)

With regards the VoNC and temp PM, I've a feeling that yesterday's move by BoJo will be hardening some of his own MPs against him and they would a) now vote against him in a VoNC and b) now realise that JC as temp isn't as bad as all that, given what we've got!

We've not heard much from them, as they don't want to reveal what they're doing. But I'm pretty sure that there will be moves afoot and we shouldn't be writing them off until we see what their new plan is next week.

I was sure we'd get a second extension, but was told in no uncertain terms by some on here that we absolutely wouldn't without something (like a GE) in the offing, as the EU27 wouldn't go for it. Well, my more optimistic view (based on my experience of courts / litigation) won out there. I'm not saying I'm hung-ho optimistic now, but until we see what those against no deal are actually planning NOW after yesterday, we can't condemn them as still thinking the same as they did the other week.

I'm carrying on carrying on: planning for the worst but hoping (dear god, I'm hoping) for the best.

I spent yesterday investigating emigration to NZ. I'm not deluded, I just want to retain some hope!

Piggywaspushed · 29/08/2019 06:44

The guidelines on 'reasonable force* were published in 2013

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/444051/Use_of_reasonable_force_advice_Reviewed_July_2015.pdf

are clearly state force cannot be used a s a punishment.

The government just likes to bring this up every so often to please part of the electorate and to get 'the blob' to shut up when they comment on lack of support from the government in education and specifically on behaviour.

A tiny minority of teachers (tiny!) want corporal punishment reinstated and that is not at all on the table.

DGRossetti · 29/08/2019 06:54

For all it's mythic status, I have a vague recollection the UK managed to sideline the ECHR in private companies - wasn't there a ruling thaty private care companies did not have to abide by it ?

(Someone sued a council for breaching the ECHR in a care home, but because the council had subcontracted to a private company, SCOTUK ruled they weren't bound by it ?)

I know the US has the exact opposite approach, and you can't do an end-run around the constitution by hiring companies to do state business.

flouncyfanny · 29/08/2019 07:17

This reply has been deleted

Message withdrawn at poster's request.

flouncyfanny · 29/08/2019 07:21

This reply has been deleted

Message withdrawn at poster's request.

verticality · 29/08/2019 07:27

Jolyon Maugham QC is a very interesting follow on Twitter right now. They have a legal challenge to the proroguing of Parliament which should be heard very soon.

The real problem here is that there are really two sets of issues, a constitutional/legal set, and a political set.

Because Parliament will be sitting for a few days (again, for legal reasons according to Maugham) there's still time for opponents of no deal a legislative route to block no deal if they get their act together, and for a VoNC. Both routes end up with a General Election in the end.

The real problem is that General Election. Depending on which electoral calculus model you use, the last four opinion polls have either revealed that the Tories would win a majority in every case, or that they would win a majority in three cases out of four. All of those polls were taken before the proroguing of parliament, and I anticipate that there will be a further bounce for Johnson after yesterday. If there is a far right Tory majority at the next election, we will be in very deep trouble. It's one thing to no deal Brexit - to have negotiations in the hands of people who will basically burn workers' rights, human rights, environmental regulation, will be catastrophic.

verticality · 29/08/2019 07:29

Actually, it probably makes sense to see it as a three-way split, with each element having a slightly different timescale:

  1. A legal set of issues/challenges using the principles already won in Miller/Wightman
  2. A constitutional set of challenges - parliamentary legislation to block no deal, VoNC/caretaker administration
  3. A political set of issues - since all roads currently seem to lead to a General Election.
mathanxiety · 29/08/2019 07:32

It wasn't the weakness of the opposition parties who let hitler in(they in fact performed rather well), it was the lazy daft entitled populace who allowed it.

It was people who were more afraid of Communism than of the Right who let Hitler in.

Anyone else see parallels?

mathanxiety · 29/08/2019 07:36

People stoking the anti-Corbyn fires need to be very careful that they are not in fact opening gates that will be very hard to shut.

verticality · 29/08/2019 07:40

Yes, exactly, people publicly stoking the anti-Corbyn fire right now are basically giving Boris a big helping hand.

We may well find ourselves in a few weeks in a situation where people in some seats either have to accept a no deal Brexit on the most neoliberal terms, or vote Corbyn (even if they have to hold their noses to do that).

Hoooo · 29/08/2019 07:45

So it wasn't a dream...?
😔🤬

Myriade · 29/08/2019 07:46

People won’t vote for Corbyn though. Many years of smearing and saying he is a communist has seen to that.

verticality · 29/08/2019 07:55

Then the simple consequences is that the Tories will win a majority, and will be in charge of negotiating Brexit without much in the way of effective opposition.

This needs to be faced NOW. We are going to need people to be hard-headed and pragmatic in the coming weeks.

The media narratives CAN be challenged (we saw that at the last GE), particularly at a time when the media themselves are highly confused about what is going on. (Coverage yesterday was an absolute joke and speaks to the lack of grasp that many of our political journalists have over the fundamentals of our system).

I'm not saying "Don't be critical!" Every party should be scrutinised. It's the braindead, kneejerk, ill-informed way in which that is done that needs to stop. (Not aimed at you, btw, your comment was on the money).

CatherineOfAragonsPrayerBook · 29/08/2019 07:56

People stoking the anti-Corbyn fires need to be very careful that they are not in fact opening gates that will be very hard to shut.

People won’t vote for Corbyn though. Many years of smearing and saying he is a communist has seen to that.

Yep.Sad

bellinisurge · 29/08/2019 07:57

In case you haven't spotted it The Brexit Arms has opened again on MN. I'm sure they are selling to everyone.

Peregrina · 29/08/2019 08:03

and I anticipate that there will be a further bounce for Johnson after yesterday.

This could go either way. Moderate Tories will probably be appalled. It's very much not what they stand for.

People won’t vote for Corbyn though. Many years of smearing and saying he is a communist has seen to that.

Last time he got a much better vote than the Tory rags expected. Enough to deny May her majority. I have no idea what will happen this time.

I never went in the Brexit Arms - I put my head round the door once by mistake. They are a bunch of fools if they think that Boris Johnson will give them anything to celebrate.

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