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Brexit

Westminstenders: Prorogation

999 replies

RedToothBrush · 28/08/2019 11:10

Its come to this.

Boris Johnson is to ask the Queen for permission to suspend parliament.

There are several legal challenges in the system to prevent this from happening.

It is unlikely to be able to stopped and the Queen is unlikely to intervene either. To do so would expose the Monarchy directly to a political threat which could lead to the downfall of the Crown if the cards lined up. Johnson has deliberate set up the situations where if she does, he is on the 'side of the people' whilst she is on the 'side of the establishment'. If she does nothing, she might be exposed still but none action, can be spun as political neutrality.

As David Allen Green points out:
^David Allen Green @davidallengreen
This is now the realm of pure politics

No court is likely to intervene - and it is not obvious what remedy a court could even grant so as to satisfactorily resolve the matter

"Not justiciable" as judges sometimes say

As we have seen so far, the opposition have been completely outclassed when it comes to 'pure politics' partly because of tribalism, partly because they lacked the capacity to understand and imagine how bad this could get - they never thought Johnson would go this far (massive tactical mistake) and partly because they so far do not understand whats driving this and have not produced and alternative narrative and explaination to counter those social and political fractures. Indeed everything they are doing is only serving to reinforce and widen those rifts and their complete lack of self awareness has been to blame. Johnson not only sees these fractures, he understands them, knows how to exploit them and most importantly is willing to do anything to retain power.

Authoritarians are always driven by this lust for power and are won't stop for anything. Thats why they are so dangerous and why checks and balances were put into the system. The trouble is the opposition didn't read the signs and are flapping in the wind now its reached the point where they suddenly realise its too far gone to be able to do much. The runaway train is firmly off the rails.

This all comes a day after the opposition apparently have agree a strategy to oppose No Deal. Which seems to include a VoNC. Remember this will always require Tory Rebels as even working together the Opposition haven't got the numbers - especially considering there are a few Labour Brexiteers.

This is being framed as a coalition of anti-democrats (which is something of a contradiction on several levels) by the government and the Brexit Party.

They have signed a pledge to set up an alternative parliament if government does prorogue parliament. This is full on civil war era stuff aka as a full blown constitutional crisis. Its actively into dangerous terrority. And as such, we very much into talking about the very real possibility of civil unrest. This is no longer something that can be considered hyperbole.

The timetable of this would see parliament prorogued just a few days into September (next week), closed to prepare for a new Queen's Speech and returning around the 17th October remembering the crucial final EU sumit on the 17th October. A VoNC doesn't necessarily mean the government will go though. There is no legal requirement to force the government to stand down. We may yet end up with a situation of two governments claiming legitmacy at the same time in late October. Prime Ministers Corbyn and Johnson.

A GE might eventually be the result of such a constitutional crisis but we would be way past 31st October before that happens.

Would we end up with an extension in such circumstances? Well the Prime Minister has to ask for one formally from the EU and the EU have to agree to one.

The problem being, who do the EU recognise as our PM?

We also have things coming into legal effect on the 1st November which would otherwise need revoking by parliament.

Which Parliament?

Things are going to get very very messy indeed.

OP posts:
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BigChocFrenzy · 28/08/2019 20:41

Nearly 800,00 signatures already

Petition: Do not prorogue Parliament

https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/269157

RedToothBrush · 28/08/2019 20:41

Can Bercow stop Brexit?

No

Next question

OP posts:
BigChocFrenzy · 28/08/2019 20:43

Or can the eu?

No and they wouldn't if they could - it would be outrageous

borntobequiet · 28/08/2019 20:47

The petition map is quite interesting. Many signatures in unexpected areas.

RedToothBrush · 28/08/2019 20:48

Or can the eu?

Still no.

5. Democracy is broken and it will be a very, very long time before we get it back...if ever

What I've found remarkable today is the number of constitutional law experts and journalists for whom it's only just dawned on. Johnson was ALWAYS going to do something like this. I said from the beginning. I suspected May would try something at the last second but ultimately she never did. She just pushed the boundaries and softened it up for the next person to plough in and destroy convention.

I just am not shocked when everyone is up in arms. I find myself just sitting watching everything unfolding as if a slow motion car crash which you know is going to be horrific but it is still in progress.

I'm struggling with saying much of any real value. It all just sounds hollow and rather meaningless.

OP posts:
Hazardtired · 28/08/2019 20:48

This brummie is cautious of claiming Phillips. She was good on charity bake off but the jury is still out on her as an MP. She can be a bit woke and she's quite posh.

AutumnCrow · 28/08/2019 20:50

I've thought for a while it can't be stopped. MPs are too scared of the voters who tend to e.g. vote Leave / will turn out to vote for xenophobic shit they can't even articulate properly.

Hazardtired · 28/08/2019 20:53

Can bercrow, MEPs and MPs stop brexit? Or no deal?

DGRossetti · 28/08/2019 20:55

In France there is a plaque commemorating the National Assembly
which says "Wherever the National Assembly meets that is the National
Assembly." ...

flouncyfanny · 28/08/2019 20:55

This reply has been deleted

Message withdrawn at poster's request.

Outsomnia · 28/08/2019 20:56

Sorry now, but UK will just accept this.

Some will gloat and be delighted. Others will be horrified, but just prep or wring their hands.

The opposition are those who need to be challenged regarding their lack of opposition really. But I reckon LP under Corbyn wanted to leave anyway.

So here we are now.

wheresmymojo · 28/08/2019 20:56

Handy graph to watch the numbers signing the petition climbing without adding to the traffic on the website

splasho.com/petitions/index.php?petition=269157

816k currently

Lonelycrab · 28/08/2019 20:56

Petition to stop progogue is rising by several thousand a minute.

Other than that getting pissed seems like about the best option. Thanks Red and everyone.

AutumnCrow · 28/08/2019 21:00

823k

tobee · 28/08/2019 21:01

Petitions and demonstrations are not going to change anything but I think you have to fight as much as you can.

DGRossetti · 28/08/2019 21:01

Has anyone suggested a general strike ? Admittedly 7 years too early, but that's inflation for you ....

BigChocFrenzy · 28/08/2019 21:01

red BJ and the ERG just doing what it says on their tin:
Brexit & Bust

Another failure point: Tory MPs not filtering out the ERG

So many points of failure along the line, so many ways this situation could have been avoided, so many people didn't do their job
Why ?
Arrogance / refusal to recognise a crisis / relying on someone else to stop it - imo mostly the last of these

Myriade · 28/08/2019 21:01

. Democracy is broken and it will be a very, very long time before we get it back...if ever

But what will replace it??

Outsomnia · 28/08/2019 21:03

Block off the motorways. Peacefully. Would be my approach now.

Just lie down in the road.

Lonelycrab · 28/08/2019 21:03

But what will replace it??

Some grown ups would be a start.

tobee · 28/08/2019 21:04

93 years since the last General Strike!

CordeliaWyndamPryce · 28/08/2019 21:07

Been reading various threads/twitter and listening to the radio all day. I'm quite shocked - I didn't realise a PM could simply shut down parliament for however long they want, whenever they want.

However, can't HoC simply legislate next week to put a time limit on prorogation?

Outsomnia · 28/08/2019 21:10

Petitions do not work sadly, no one takes any notice. Nor do they take any notice of the gatherings in Parliament Square either. No bother, no one is inconvenienced really.

Direct (peaceful) action might. No need for violence or anything. Just stop movement of people (how ironic) and we shall see.

Stopping movement on the motorways is something to be considered. Safely and pre organised with the police etc. and peacefully too. It can be done.

Where do I lie down on the M25 please. Others will know where to do this too.

Desperate times call for desperate measures. Maximum disruption peacefully.

I suppose I am delusional though.

Myriade · 28/08/2019 21:11

Thats the issue with a constitution tht isnt written. All those pesky holes never come out as an issue the way they would be when you have to write everything down. And of course, there is no scurtiny either.

tobee · 28/08/2019 21:12

What's the best way to unite protesters Outsomnia? How to get the word out? Is Twitter co ordinated enough?