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Brexit

Westminstenders: Prorogation

999 replies

RedToothBrush · 28/08/2019 11:10

Its come to this.

Boris Johnson is to ask the Queen for permission to suspend parliament.

There are several legal challenges in the system to prevent this from happening.

It is unlikely to be able to stopped and the Queen is unlikely to intervene either. To do so would expose the Monarchy directly to a political threat which could lead to the downfall of the Crown if the cards lined up. Johnson has deliberate set up the situations where if she does, he is on the 'side of the people' whilst she is on the 'side of the establishment'. If she does nothing, she might be exposed still but none action, can be spun as political neutrality.

As David Allen Green points out:
^David Allen Green @davidallengreen
This is now the realm of pure politics

No court is likely to intervene - and it is not obvious what remedy a court could even grant so as to satisfactorily resolve the matter

"Not justiciable" as judges sometimes say

As we have seen so far, the opposition have been completely outclassed when it comes to 'pure politics' partly because of tribalism, partly because they lacked the capacity to understand and imagine how bad this could get - they never thought Johnson would go this far (massive tactical mistake) and partly because they so far do not understand whats driving this and have not produced and alternative narrative and explaination to counter those social and political fractures. Indeed everything they are doing is only serving to reinforce and widen those rifts and their complete lack of self awareness has been to blame. Johnson not only sees these fractures, he understands them, knows how to exploit them and most importantly is willing to do anything to retain power.

Authoritarians are always driven by this lust for power and are won't stop for anything. Thats why they are so dangerous and why checks and balances were put into the system. The trouble is the opposition didn't read the signs and are flapping in the wind now its reached the point where they suddenly realise its too far gone to be able to do much. The runaway train is firmly off the rails.

This all comes a day after the opposition apparently have agree a strategy to oppose No Deal. Which seems to include a VoNC. Remember this will always require Tory Rebels as even working together the Opposition haven't got the numbers - especially considering there are a few Labour Brexiteers.

This is being framed as a coalition of anti-democrats (which is something of a contradiction on several levels) by the government and the Brexit Party.

They have signed a pledge to set up an alternative parliament if government does prorogue parliament. This is full on civil war era stuff aka as a full blown constitutional crisis. Its actively into dangerous terrority. And as such, we very much into talking about the very real possibility of civil unrest. This is no longer something that can be considered hyperbole.

The timetable of this would see parliament prorogued just a few days into September (next week), closed to prepare for a new Queen's Speech and returning around the 17th October remembering the crucial final EU sumit on the 17th October. A VoNC doesn't necessarily mean the government will go though. There is no legal requirement to force the government to stand down. We may yet end up with a situation of two governments claiming legitmacy at the same time in late October. Prime Ministers Corbyn and Johnson.

A GE might eventually be the result of such a constitutional crisis but we would be way past 31st October before that happens.

Would we end up with an extension in such circumstances? Well the Prime Minister has to ask for one formally from the EU and the EU have to agree to one.

The problem being, who do the EU recognise as our PM?

We also have things coming into legal effect on the 1st November which would otherwise need revoking by parliament.

Which Parliament?

Things are going to get very very messy indeed.

OP posts:
Thread gallery
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wheresmymojo · 28/08/2019 19:45

Sorry - yes, ignore Snell!

  • Rory the Tory
  • Ken Clarke
  • Oliver Letwin
  • Antoinette Sandbach
  • Sam Gymiah
  • Justine Greening
  • Phillip Hammond
  • David Gauke
  • Stephen Hammond
  • Dominic Grieve

Possible - have shared tweets against the prorogation or about a PV but haven't explicitly said they'll get involved:

  • Guto Bebb
woman19 · 28/08/2019 19:46

You are a carer so you are a hero hazard Halo Have a good evening. Wine

tobee · 28/08/2019 19:51

That's quite a disappointingly small list of Tory MPs.

borntobequiet · 28/08/2019 19:53

I’m meeting a family member in the Midlands on Sat but think I will suggest we both go to London to protest.

tobee · 28/08/2019 19:53

Says a lot when you think about all the May cabinet members and Hunt supporters that got shafted by Johnson and where there priorities lie.

Hoooo · 28/08/2019 19:55

I'll try and find a number haz...

Sostenueto · 28/08/2019 19:56

There's protestors gathering outside Parliament! Yay!

bellinisurge · 28/08/2019 19:57

Listening to the latest Brexitcast "we're going to need a bigger Klaxon "

jasjas1973 · 28/08/2019 19:58

I know i got a little flamed for suggesting that any EU citizens still here should head back but after today? we are making exactly the

What a terrible country we live in? i am soooo glad my DD has Aussie citizenship and i an EU passport, the country both grandparents, an uncle fought for in 2 world wars and another uncle who was killed in Burma, is truly dead to me.

wheresmymojo · 28/08/2019 20:00

There are a sprinkling that have voted against no deal previously but naively believe that BJ is doing this whole stunt to get a WA through at the last minute (I.e. because it's a new Parliamentary session, the WA can be brought back).

Does anyone think this is what is happening?

It's been mooted a couple of times on Twitter but I'm not convinced that BJ will switch to an agreement at the last minute.

None of the ERG would vote for it because they'd be so close to a No Deal they'd be able to smell it.

So he'd be reliant on scaring opposition into it.

I just don't see it as his style and I'm pretty sure Cummings is an advocate of no deal isn't he?

mama345 · 28/08/2019 20:01

Biggest crisis in British history since WWII and all the leader of the main opposition party can think of is to demand a meeting with the queen. I despair.

smilethoyourheartisbreaking · 28/08/2019 20:05

This reply has been deleted

Message withdrawn at poster's request.

wheresmymojo · 28/08/2019 20:07

Antoinne Sandbach MP re-shared a copy of the letter BJ sent to One Nation Tories to get them onside which says:

"Boris Johnson, June 26, 2019:

"I am not attracted to archaic devices like proroguing (Parliament). Let's get this thing done as a proud representative democracy....."

BigChocFrenzy · 28/08/2019 20:09

"Isn't he taking a huge gamble that 'No Deal' would have so little impact that people would remain indifferent?"

Not if he goes for a November GE, especially an early Nov one.

There will be effects by then, but - barring a massive cockup - they will be minor, at least for almost everyone
Just enough for people to make themselves feel good with virtual "Blitz spirit" - without real discomfort

Myriade · 28/08/2019 20:10

@jasjas1973 moving back 'home' is certainly one possibility.
Atm Im still binding my time because leaving in a year's time will things much easier for me (all to do with work) but im getting ready.
And yes i would suggest the same to all other EU citizens.

Hope for the best but prepare for the worst....

woman19 · 28/08/2019 20:11

It's been mooted a couple of times on Twitter
read back to what red said earlier.
You know when something very violent or shocking happens?
Normal reaction is denial/ dissociation.
That.

BigChocFrenzy · 28/08/2019 20:14

"So the entire post-war rehabilitation of Germany has been a crock, and the people were to blame ?"

DG "All that is necessary for evil to triumph ..... "

but the indifferent people then weren't guilty of any crime, or "evil," just looking the other way / busy surviving economic disaster / too scared / bored / ....

RedToothBrush · 28/08/2019 20:14

Wheresmymojo I bet there are a few remain Tory MPs who backed Johnson thinking he would go soft who are seriously pissed off. I can't remember which it was who said he would get a deal and wouldn't go for no deal but there certainly was at least a couple under the impression he'd go liberal.

Fuck knows why.

Paul Brand @paulbranditv
LATEST: Anti-Brexit campaigner Gina Miller has applied for a judicial review of PM's decision to prorogue Parliament

facepalm

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wheresmymojo · 28/08/2019 20:14

Even some in the Torygraph aren't happy. Thread by Alan Renwick...

I argue in the @Telegraph that Boris Johnson's prorogation of parliament violates both basic constitutional principles and fundamental tenets of conservatism. Key points for those of you frustrated by the paywall:

THREAD (1/12)

The centrepiece of the UK's constitutional system is our democratically elected parliament. It has an essential role in scrutinizing government. Without it, we risk getting demagoguery, not democracy. (2/12)

A referendum, especially one that leaves the detail to be worked out later, doesn't change that. Proper democratic accountability is needed throughout the process. In the absence of another election or referendum, only parliament can provide it. (3/12)

Further, our constitution is uncodified, and in parts unwritten: many of the rules reside in tradition, not fixed legal text. That allows those rules to adapt organically to changing times. But it also requires those in power to abide by the basic, unwritten principles. (4/12)

Government is proroguing parliament to avoid normal parliamentary scrutiny of its actions. The Prime Minister is seeking to circumvent the possible parliamentary majority against his chosen course of action. (5/12)

Quick digression: I've had a few comments suggesting today's decision is trivial, as parliament was going off for the conference recess anyway. This is wrong. (1) Recess is not prorogation. Lots of parliamentary business goes on in recess. Everything stops in prorogation. (6/12)

(2) Parliament gets to vote on whether to go into recess. It looked increasingly likely that parliament might vote against it. So, no, today's decision does make a big difference.) (7/12)

In proroguing parliament, Johnson is not only undermining our democratic process by silencing parliament, but also abusing the basic character of the uncodified constitution. (8/12)

There's no modern UK precedent for proroguing to block parliament's will, or for so long, or at such a fraught time, when a functioning parliament is essential. And all this when the PM has been subject to parliamentary scrutiny for just one of his first 40 days in office. (9/12)

Most remarkably, this is being done by a Conservative PM. Conservatives generally laud our uncodified constitution and celebrate that our elected representatives are reasonable enough to make it work. (10/12)

But if norms and traditions aren't respected, they cease to exist. Future governments of different hues may be similarly cavalier, or write down new rules that shift the country from its organic constitutional tradition. (11/12)

So there's nothing normal - or trivial - about Johnson's move. It has profound implications for our constitution and democracy. Progressives may seize the opportunity to cast our democratic system afresh. It's astonishing that more Conservatives are not deeply perturbed. (12/12)

RedToothBrush · 28/08/2019 20:16

Matt Chorley @mattchorley
Takeaway from today: Remainers have finally woken up to the fact that the government is being run by the guy who won the EU referendum and not the guy who lost his seat in Croydon.

Team May gave her opponents all the time in the world (and they still didn't really know what to do with it). Team Johnson is not going to give them that luxury.

You might not like it, but as someone else tweeted earlier: you don't bring a rulebook to a gunfight

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Myriade · 28/08/2019 20:18

Have you seen this one?

www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/boris-johnson-parliament-suspended-eu-rule-law-investigation-latest-a9082606.html

MEPs plan to trigger EU rule of law investigation into Boris Johnson's government over suspension of parliament
treating the UK and Boris Johnson the same thatthey have yreated Hungary and its far right government.
Antony Hook, a British Liberal Democrat MEP who is coordinating the bid said: “Suspending the UK’s parliament for political convenience is clearly against the fundamental principles of the European Union and the basic principles that any parliamentary democracy should uphold.
Yep and this needs to be shouted to everyone.

mama345 · 28/08/2019 20:20

@myriade But has the EU been able to stop Victor Orban in Hungary?

tobee · 28/08/2019 20:21

As I said upthread in reply to Red's reply to me mentioning about a deal being Johnson's real desire, it's not just people on Twitter " it's Lewis Goodall on sky News online.

Doesn't mean it's not all pie in the sky though:

news.sky.com/story/boris-johnsons-suspension-of-parliament-shows-downing-street-wants-a-brexit-deal-11796109

Myriade · 28/08/2019 20:22

So there's nothing normal - or trivial - about Johnson's move.

Its a coup. Not a military coup but a soft coup. Nevertherles, still a coup.

Watch out for the unrest after the 31st October if food/medication get short or needs rationing. And the NEED to govern wo Parliament, proroging Parliament again for the good cause.

wheresmymojo · 28/08/2019 20:22

Jess Phillips has sent a good letter to BJ. Can't post a copy as over my photo allowance but it's on her Twitter.

Good old fashioned Northern bollocking.

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