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Brexit

Westminstenders: Prorogation

999 replies

RedToothBrush · 28/08/2019 11:10

Its come to this.

Boris Johnson is to ask the Queen for permission to suspend parliament.

There are several legal challenges in the system to prevent this from happening.

It is unlikely to be able to stopped and the Queen is unlikely to intervene either. To do so would expose the Monarchy directly to a political threat which could lead to the downfall of the Crown if the cards lined up. Johnson has deliberate set up the situations where if she does, he is on the 'side of the people' whilst she is on the 'side of the establishment'. If she does nothing, she might be exposed still but none action, can be spun as political neutrality.

As David Allen Green points out:
^David Allen Green @davidallengreen
This is now the realm of pure politics

No court is likely to intervene - and it is not obvious what remedy a court could even grant so as to satisfactorily resolve the matter

"Not justiciable" as judges sometimes say

As we have seen so far, the opposition have been completely outclassed when it comes to 'pure politics' partly because of tribalism, partly because they lacked the capacity to understand and imagine how bad this could get - they never thought Johnson would go this far (massive tactical mistake) and partly because they so far do not understand whats driving this and have not produced and alternative narrative and explaination to counter those social and political fractures. Indeed everything they are doing is only serving to reinforce and widen those rifts and their complete lack of self awareness has been to blame. Johnson not only sees these fractures, he understands them, knows how to exploit them and most importantly is willing to do anything to retain power.

Authoritarians are always driven by this lust for power and are won't stop for anything. Thats why they are so dangerous and why checks and balances were put into the system. The trouble is the opposition didn't read the signs and are flapping in the wind now its reached the point where they suddenly realise its too far gone to be able to do much. The runaway train is firmly off the rails.

This all comes a day after the opposition apparently have agree a strategy to oppose No Deal. Which seems to include a VoNC. Remember this will always require Tory Rebels as even working together the Opposition haven't got the numbers - especially considering there are a few Labour Brexiteers.

This is being framed as a coalition of anti-democrats (which is something of a contradiction on several levels) by the government and the Brexit Party.

They have signed a pledge to set up an alternative parliament if government does prorogue parliament. This is full on civil war era stuff aka as a full blown constitutional crisis. Its actively into dangerous terrority. And as such, we very much into talking about the very real possibility of civil unrest. This is no longer something that can be considered hyperbole.

The timetable of this would see parliament prorogued just a few days into September (next week), closed to prepare for a new Queen's Speech and returning around the 17th October remembering the crucial final EU sumit on the 17th October. A VoNC doesn't necessarily mean the government will go though. There is no legal requirement to force the government to stand down. We may yet end up with a situation of two governments claiming legitmacy at the same time in late October. Prime Ministers Corbyn and Johnson.

A GE might eventually be the result of such a constitutional crisis but we would be way past 31st October before that happens.

Would we end up with an extension in such circumstances? Well the Prime Minister has to ask for one formally from the EU and the EU have to agree to one.

The problem being, who do the EU recognise as our PM?

We also have things coming into legal effect on the 1st November which would otherwise need revoking by parliament.

Which Parliament?

Things are going to get very very messy indeed.

OP posts:
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TokyoSushi · 28/08/2019 16:19

The xylophone person has returned on Sky news to lighten the mood slightly!

RedToothBrush · 28/08/2019 16:19

People with jobs & houses & savings don't, unless their lives are threatened, not their livelihoods

Do can we rule this out in the cotswolds and round Waitrose with no deal?

When your kids can't get their insulin and your parents can't get their heart pills?

OP posts:
Camomila · 28/08/2019 16:21

I think Boris has lost the Tories a lot of home counties swing/moderate Tory voters. Various friends (who generally aren't overly political) have been messaging wtf type faces to me or posting on facebook today.

CatherineOfAragonsPrayerBook · 28/08/2019 16:23

JustAnotherPoster00

Remember the days of 'you'll have chaos under a Corbyn government'

GrinGrinGrin

I said it. So did a few others. I said BJ is not just a fucking bumbling clown. He's bloody clever. He's one of the shrewdest self-serving politicians of our modern age. People on MN constantly say shit like Nigel Farage is an idiot etc. Yeah right. None of these people are idiots. They are cunning, and now the totally ineffective opposition have totally underestimated who what they are dealing with.

This will keep happening until these people start listening to what people are saying on the ground, get with the undercurrent of thought. Too many people of privilege living in halls of power.

A Corbyn government now looks like a safe pair of hands! Fucking hilarious!!

As for the monarchy well pretty pointless now aren't they?

Violetparis · 28/08/2019 16:23

I disagree Hoo. I know plenty of 'traditional' Labour voters who were shop stewards, union reps etc and are clearly not 'closet' Tories. I disagree with their Brexit stance but to dismiss them as Tories is simplistic and wrong.

Hoooo · 28/08/2019 16:24

Well, they are pushing a tory policy to the detriment of their constituents.

That means closet tory to me.

smilethoyourheartisbreaking · 28/08/2019 16:26

This reply has been deleted

Message withdrawn at poster's request.

RedToothBrush · 28/08/2019 16:29

You don't have to be clever if you are self serving.

Just prepared to do more and go further than anyone expected you to and be far more ruthless about the impact on the public.

The failure to understand just how far Johnson is prepared to shit on others to retain power is the miscalculation.

Don't mistake callous disregard for the lives of those more vulnerable than you for intelligence.

If you don't have to think about things like that too much, then you have lots more options open to you after all...

OP posts:
Hoooo · 28/08/2019 16:30

I'm pretty sure tony benn would be sickened by what's happening.

BigChocFrenzy · 28/08/2019 16:31

It long ago stopped being about benefits or downside of Brexit:

It's about winning the culture war and beating the other side, grinding them into the dirt, causing them pain

howabout · 28/08/2019 16:32

Peston blames Cameron (and by extension Clegg) for the subversion of the Constitutional settlement via the FTPA and Referendums. He points out that Parliament was acquiescent in all of this.

www.itv.com/news/2019-08-28/mps-have-themselves-to-blame-for-how-johnson-is-marginalising-them-writes-robert-peston/

BigChocFrenzy · 28/08/2019 16:32

red "People with jobs & houses & savings don't, unless their lives are threatened, not their livelihoods"

I include the lives of loved ones

FractalChaos · 28/08/2019 16:32

Lots of protests popping up. Anywhere have coverage?

Also, can someone explain the alternative government pact and how that would work please? And how we know they have done it/are making moves to do it?

Violetparis · 28/08/2019 16:33

No wonder the Remain campaign has utterly failed to win over Leave voters in traditional Labour areas.

DGRossetti · 28/08/2019 16:33

I said it. So did a few others. I said BJ is not just a fucking bumbling clown. He's bloody clever. He's one of the shrewdest self-serving politicians of our modern age. People on MN constantly say shit like Nigel Farage is an idiot etc. Yeah right. None of these people are idiots. They are cunning, and now the totally ineffective opposition have totally underestimated who what they are dealing with

The are clever enough to know who to take advice from, and when. As long as they can serve their purpose, they'll be given the tools they need to do the job they're being put in place to do. If they get any weird ideas, or no longer serve that purpose, they're toast.

One thing I would credit Boris with, is an intimate - and working knowledge of the fall of the Roman republic. Just as valid today, as it was when Caesar crossed the Rubicon.

Alea iacta est as they say in Rome.

Of course, ultimately Caesar won, and Rome lost. If we want a preview of how it went, Boris will be toppled by moderates afraid of what they have unleashed/is happening. We'll get a "benign" August dictator (you really couldn't make this shit up) followed by a colossal pervert, and then a madman. By which time the latter day equivalent of the Praetorian guard will have twigged which side their bread is buttered and make it their business to deliver emperor Prime Minster after Prime Minister.

I'm guessing Netflix have already commissioned it.

BigChocFrenzy · 28/08/2019 16:34

"Don't mistake callous disregard for the lives of those more vulnerable than you for intelligence."

definitely not intelligence; this ruthlessness is typical of sociopaths, psychopaths, also narcissists

prettybird · 28/08/2019 16:34

This article, from 8 August, suggests that the Parliamentarians still had the opportunity to vote on whether the Party Conference recess should happen.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-politics-party-conference-autumn-recess-cancel-mps-a9046671.html

Dominin Grieve today definitely said that there were plans for it not to happen and Joanne Cherry said the same thing - and while I might not believe Corbyn - I do believe that Grieve wouldn't lie.

On the phone at the moment so not going to check Hansard to see what recess they voted on just before they went off. My recollection is that they only voted on their summer recess at the last minute.

smilethoyourheartisbreaking · 28/08/2019 16:36

This reply has been deleted

Message withdrawn at poster's request.

Violetparis · 28/08/2019 16:38

I love Kathy Burke Grin

pumkinspicetime · 28/08/2019 16:38

No smile he doesn't have the warmth or the depth to be one of those.

prettybird · 28/08/2019 16:38

Dh is saying that BoZo is more Trump than Trump SadAngry

DGRossetti · 28/08/2019 16:38

Peston blames Cameron (and by extension Clegg) for the subversion of the Constitutional settlement via the FTPA and Referendums. He points out that Parliament was acquiescent in all of this.

I can't backtrack enough on this. At the time I supported it, and decried the naysayers. But they were right, and I was wrong.

returning (briefly) to the intelligence debate ... ironically I'm also an IQ test sceptic. All IQ tests do, is tell you how good someone is at doing IQ tests. A simple way to confirm how painfully fucking correct I am, is to put one in front of any of these "AI" thingies that are all the rage these days, and tell me the score. Just to be fair, they can have all year. If they get more than zero I'd be amazed.

Anyway, I'm going to assert one factor in assessing, determining and accepting intelligence is the ability to admit a mistake, and thus divert precious resources to finding a better way.

Just leave that there, really ....

MockersthefeMANist · 28/08/2019 16:39

It's a long-term strategy for the Tory right to move away from the suburban middle-class and get back to Disraeli's unlikely alliance of the wealthy property-owners and the patriotic salt-of-the-earth white van types who can be co-opted in their own subservience with a bit of flag and xenophobia.

So paging Amber Rudd and Nicky Morgan. You've gone very quiet.

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