The Columnist @sime0nstylites
1. Brexit has taken another strange turn with the announcement (again) of the end of FoM on October 31, the government’s rejection of the previous government’s interim approach to FoM, and the promise of an as yet unspecified approach.
So what’s going on?
2. You would be forgiven for thinking this approach was the work of people hell-bent on making their lives as difficult as possible.
3. Not only is it unworkable but it will galvanise opposition from moderate Conservatives, business and a host of other impacted parties. It also further damages Team Johnson’s shop-worn reputation for being a liberal.
4. Sadly, I detect a plan that has no rationale other than politics.
If Team Johnson’s Plan A was to persuade the Europeans to drop the backstop, it hasn’t worked.
If Plan B was to persuade Conservative MPs that resistance is futile, it hasn’t worked.
5. So on to Plan C - preparing for a general election.
The only sense in this new immigration approach is to try to increase the Conservatives’ polling numbers.
6. The similarity of the current onslaught to the referendum campaign is not an accident - NHS, immigration, NHS, immigration, rinse and repeat forever.
But there is one important difference.
No Deal changes the dynamics materially.
7. The percentage of No Deal supporters is much less than 50% - let’s call it 35%. In a sense that’s fine because Team Johnson is not trying to win a referendum - ie get over 50% of the vote.
8. Johnson is trying to win a plurality, which, in our fragmented state, is perhaps somewhere around 35%.
And he is not there yet.
9. Johnson needs every single one of the No Deal votes, most of which can only come from the Brexit Party.
As a result, the government is posturing very hard on immigration.
10. For the avoidance of doubt, Plan C has little to do with what’s right or wrong for the country unless of course you think there is nothing better than a Team Johnson overall majority.
11. Will it work?
The bet, if you will, is that the 35% No Deal bloc is more unified (and gettable) than any other bloc or coalition.
12. But the strategy has three major flaws.
1. The more radical the position, the greater the opposition is galvanised to react in unusual ways (eg electoral cooperation)
2. If anyone thinks the Brexit Party will march happily off the field, I have a bus to sell them.
13. Thirdly, No Deal is actually a real problem.
How solid is that 35% if people get worried? I have my doubts.
Hence the government’s fury at the Yellowhammer leak because it subverts the election campaign narrative.
14. An election is coming, and very soon.
Why wait to be humiliated by a No Deal Brexit being stopped by the HoC or, worse, losing a VONC?
Fasten your seatbelts for September.
/ends
PS Watch carefully for any histrionics post the meetings with Macron and Merkel.
PPS ht @JamesKanag for the plurality / majority insight.
(RTB: this twitter thread is worth reading)
As I keep saying, and I'm going to bore you about - Johnson isn't doing policy atm. He's doing photoshoots.
All of this is - the Facebook addresses to the 'nation' (the leave echo chamber), the dogwhistle politics, suddenly trying to appear reasonable and asking if the EU will be reasonable - isn't about Brexit. It's about Johnson staying in power and a possible GE. It's all about optics to anyone who might possibly vote for him.
It's the bloody bus again. Except no one is seeing it. Again.
And the journalists are flapping and not calling it out.