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Brexit

Westminstenders: Promises, promises

962 replies

RedToothBrush · 05/08/2019 23:26

Today polling showed that there was a majority in Scotland who support Independence. The 'Boris Bounce' really isn't universal. And this is a firm sign all is not well.

There is talk tonight that Johnson is planning to stay on as PM even if he loses a vote of no confidence in order to force No Deal through and prevent a government of national unity. Instead he would call a 'people v politicians' general election to be held shortly after we'd left the EU.

Johnson's willingness to defy parliament should not be discounted and should be taken seriously. Its highly likely in one way or another. No deal is technically illegal, but its also the default. This does not seem to be fully recognised by remainers. But this is a man who lied and continued to lie. And there is every sign that he would be willing to cause some sort of constitutional crisis. Especially if he really is like Trump. This is what authoritarians do - defy convention and rip up the rule book - because the powers that are suppose to hold them to account are too weak to hold them to account. Something that Johnson has already proved time and again. He has no respect for others.

All the signs are Johnson is in fully into campaigning for a GE already. He's touring the country and ignoring Europe. He's offering money for the NHS - its open to debate whether this is new money - the optics on this are all down to what you want to believe. Those who want Johnson will believe the promise; those who don't won't.

The penny hasn't fully dropped in parliament. There is talk of a vote of no confidence being called by Labour 'at the earliest opportunity' in September. The reality is its too little too late and is unlikely to work to have the desired effect and inside will play right into Johnson's plan. The failure of the Opposition to spot what he was likely to do, has been the story of the last 3 years, where Remainers have been reactionary and unable to anticipate what would happen next. Their lack of imagination and inability to look beyond their own rhetoric has been their undoing and may cost us all in the long run.

Meanwhile in Brussels, the EU unlike our Parliament have recognised the inevitability of no deal and if Johnson wants no deal there is no way to stop it. And that he has no inclination whatsoever to negotiate.

The expectation is still that the EU will have the backstop and the Brexit Bill of £39 billion as the requirement for the opening of trade talks if we no deal.

Which leaves up shit creek.

At the same time the new trade minister Liz Truss is full on libertarian and talking to the US with this in mind.

That would mean a bonfire of rights and standards which will horrify many. That means goodbye to workers rights, food standards and data protection.

The tech giants have the ears of Washington so British ideas of a tax on them are being seen as a block on a US trade deal.

It comes as the UK has joined a US coalition to protect ships in the Gulf - something we were originally given a snub against, and led to Jeremy Hunt saying we would join a European led force. Its not clear what, who or how the US uturn has come about...

Meanwhile our summer holidays are all getting more expensive... and this is just the start of it.

This is real. This isn't a bluff.

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bellinisurge · 10/08/2019 21:52

@wheresmymojo , you will need a stiff drink or lots of tea and chocolate biscuits to stop shivering as you read it.

RedToothBrush · 10/08/2019 22:59

Before you get TOO excited at the headline...

...its referring to old comments that were made shortly after Cameron's resignation.

HOWEVER, for this now to surface does suggest that the Palace is really not happy with ANY of our politicians and is trying to give them all a big kick.

It says:
The monarch has remained scrupulously impartial thoughout the increasingly toxic battles over Brexit. But in a rare insight into the Queen's thinking, a senior royal source, who witnessed the exchange, told The Sunday Times: "She expressed her exasperation and frustration about the quality of our political leadership, and that frustration will only have grown."

This has come from a senior royal source in the same week as the Queen's Private Secretary and the Cabinet Secretary have had talks about the constitutional issue of what happens if Johnson is No Confidenced and refuses to quit.

This isn't a coindence or a casual leak. This is definitely making a big point about how pissed the Queen is.

It does confirm that the Queen has been pissed for a while too...

Westminstenders: Promises, promises
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RedToothBrush · 10/08/2019 23:02

Also on the front of the Sunday Times is the news that a certain A Banks is under investigation by the National Crime Agency for smuggling diamonds. And dealing with Russians. All from a file handed from South Africa's organised crime unit.

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woman19 · 10/08/2019 23:04

"Our politicians aren't fit to govern."

This, from the english defence minister/brincel a few hours ago.

Envy not envy

Westminstenders: Promises, promises
woman19 · 10/08/2019 23:08

WIth what happened to Epstein today, hot on the heels of the revelations about her son last night, my patience with 'the firm' has run out too.
It has for most of us, it's probably why the queen's employees are posting these stories.

RedToothBrush · 10/08/2019 23:10

Johnson, is trying to position himself as the people versus the elite and might stiff the queen in the process. So yeah, she's worried.

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Violetparis · 10/08/2019 23:12

It's beyond ridiculous that Boris Johnson can present himself as part of the non elite Angry

prettybird · 10/08/2019 23:12

I'm straight. I don't fancy Johnny Mercer.

Maybe I'm not a woman Confused - but having gone through childbirth nearly 19 years ago when I had ds, I'm pretty confident I am Wink

Freefrops · 10/08/2019 23:30

The Jmercer tweet has hit the headlines www.cornwalllive.com/news/cornwall-news/johnny-mercer-tweets-straight-women-3197937

Icantreachthepretzels · 11/08/2019 00:05

The queen may technically be more elite than Boris - but she is far less offensively elite than he is. Anyone stupid enough to belief Boris is of the people thoroughly deserves the kicking he will give them. Hopefully it will turn out such people are few and far between and he is not actually fooling anyone.

I also don't fancy Johnny Mercer - but in fairness I have never met him so am not in the demographic being tweeted about, it might not be a lie Hmm Funny how he's very clear its straight women - no word on how irresistible he is to gay and bi men? I wonder why ...

prettybird · 11/08/2019 00:12

True Icantreachthepretzels - I've never actually met Mercer, so it could be that he is sooooo irresistible to straight Wink women that I would immediately forget about dh and throw myself at him Grin

Hmm

Or maybe it's just that at 58, I haven't yet realised that I'm gay?! Wink Maybe the Mercer test is a new Gaydar! Grin

borntobequiet · 11/08/2019 06:42

I’m straight and fairly indiscriminate in whom I fancy, but as soon as Mercer opened his mouth on HIGNFY any appeal he might have had vanished instantly.

QueenOfThorns · 11/08/2019 06:49

I’ve just Googled Johnny Mercer - looks as though I might be gay as well. All the pictures have the same self-satisfied smirk, which doesn’t do much for me!

Regarding Her Maj, Bozo is way off there. The ‘people’ have too much affection for her and I thought it was the middle class ‘elites’ that are the enemy in his narrative? Could maybe have worked with Charles, everyone thinks he’s a bit odd.

WorriedMutha · 11/08/2019 07:33

mobile.twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status/1160419933563445248

Good news from the Good Law Project. Permission to proceed with the case to prevent the proroguing of Parliament.

RedToothBrush · 11/08/2019 07:34

Mercer was an arrogant twat on Celebrity Hunted. Felt sorry for his wife. He does have that thing going on where someone has pleasant enough packaging but as soon as he opens his mouth its like 'ugh' and he turns into an instant troll creature you would touch with a barge pole.

Anyway this is interesting. Some constituency level polling...

www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/general-election-boris-johnson-key-marginal-seats-conservative-liberal-democrats-brexit-a9051106.html
Boris Johnson could lose over half of 20 key marginal seats between Tories and Lib Dems at early election, analysis shows
‘Given the volatility of recent general election campaigns it’s hard to see Boris Johnson opting for an early election as anything other than a mad gamble’

The polling by YouGov for the People’s Vote campaign – covering 20 constituencies with the smallest Tory majorities where the Lib Dems came second in 2017 – shows 11 of them of could fall from Tory control.

It suggests 30 per cent of those who backed Theresa May at the 2017 snap election would no longer do so. Of these, 10 per cent said they would now back the Lib Dems while a further 18 per cent would vote for the Brexit Party under Nigel Farage’s stewardship.

And

The People’s Vote campaign said Tories at risk include the Richmond Park MP Zac Goldsmith, who regained his seat from the Liberal Democrats at the election called by Theresa May in 2017.

Others constituencies such as St Ives, Cheltenham, North Devon, Cheadle, Lewes, St Albans and Hazel Grove could also fall to Jo Swinson’s party.

I cavet this heavily. It appears to be based on a GE pre 31st Oct, and none of these are particularly surprising.

Also Johnson is campaigning in other areas - he's going for the equivalent of the American Rust Belt - Trump's victory was unexpected as the Democrats campaigned in the wrong areas and lost in battle grounds they weren't expecting to.

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TheABC · 11/08/2019 07:44

@redtoothbrush, like you I read the report with scepticism. Having said that, there are genuine talks in place to limit Tory/BP parties chances of success and Johnson is off the starting blocks as the incumbent government with years of austerity behind them. Given the fact we are one quarter away from recession and they are talking about a bank holiday on 1st November to limit the immediate financial damage to the banks, I can't see Johnson wanting to campaign after the Brexit date.

He wants to be forced into calling an election now.

BigChocFrenzy · 11/08/2019 08:16

A govt with a majority of only 1 - including 10 DUPs - won't last a year, anyway

The question for BJ is whether he chooses the best date, or lets Corbyn force it at a later time when the full efffects of No Deal have become apparent

He would lose votes to Farage is the GE is before Brexit, possibly even if held on 3 October, given how paranoid some Brexiters are at the "elite robbing" them of Brexit in the final hour

So imo still looks like 7 November is his best chance:

  • he'd have achieved Brexit and hence neutralised the most danger from Farage

  • No Deal effects would be very minor, because imports would be flowing and most people won't notice / care that exports have been held back to enable this

Does he have the nerve to choose 7 Nov ?

Or would he be quite happy to play at PM for a year or so, until Corbyn pulls the plug
and then go whistling off into a prosperous retirement, like Cameron ?

Remember, he doesn't give a shit about Brexit, country, even party - it's all about himself

This whole Brexit thing was and probably still is just a big jape to enjoy for a while and increase his future pay as a TV / media "personality"

Hoooo · 11/08/2019 08:40

Johnny Mercer has the look of a second hand car salesman.

Sniff.

NoWordForFluffy · 11/08/2019 08:42

JM isn't my type. Bit too smooth / slippery looking!

ThereWillBeAdequateFood · 11/08/2019 09:31

I fancy JM but I also fancy Ramsey from Game of Thrones.
For some reason I’m attracted to total bastards if they are on the telly.

prettybird · 11/08/2019 09:44

You've apparently confirmed that you are a straight woman then Adequate Grin

There rest of us are on more dodgy ground! Wink

....now Steve Backshall on the other hand...... WinkGrin and he seems a nice person too Smile

Hazardtired · 11/08/2019 09:47

JM looks like on a first date he'd tell you about his protein shakes and then his car.

HeatedRollers · 11/08/2019 09:50

JM looks like he would eat himself if he could, that's not an attractive trait.

howabout · 11/08/2019 09:53

Interesting approach to polling from Yougov and the PV campaign red. I wonder what the predicted outcome is if the 18% transfer to the Brexit Party doesn't materialise? I do think, Brexit aside, it is highly likely that the LibDems will start to climb back towards their normal 10-15% level of support. This will definitely help them in Conservative / LibDem marginals which are pro-Remain. Their SW ones are pro-Brexit though. The other implication is that, as discussed in pp, a vote for the LibDems is very likely to split the Remain vote and help the Conservatives, in Conservative / Labour seats.

In summary it very much likes the PV, YouGov and the Independent are hoping to maximise LibDem support with primary objective of hurting Labour as per.

HesterThrale · 11/08/2019 09:55

Good points, BCF.
I bet secretly Cummings doesn’t think much of BJ at all.

Can this ridiculous house of cards hold up long enough to actually do some damage?