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Brexit

Westminstenders: Promises, promises

962 replies

RedToothBrush · 05/08/2019 23:26

Today polling showed that there was a majority in Scotland who support Independence. The 'Boris Bounce' really isn't universal. And this is a firm sign all is not well.

There is talk tonight that Johnson is planning to stay on as PM even if he loses a vote of no confidence in order to force No Deal through and prevent a government of national unity. Instead he would call a 'people v politicians' general election to be held shortly after we'd left the EU.

Johnson's willingness to defy parliament should not be discounted and should be taken seriously. Its highly likely in one way or another. No deal is technically illegal, but its also the default. This does not seem to be fully recognised by remainers. But this is a man who lied and continued to lie. And there is every sign that he would be willing to cause some sort of constitutional crisis. Especially if he really is like Trump. This is what authoritarians do - defy convention and rip up the rule book - because the powers that are suppose to hold them to account are too weak to hold them to account. Something that Johnson has already proved time and again. He has no respect for others.

All the signs are Johnson is in fully into campaigning for a GE already. He's touring the country and ignoring Europe. He's offering money for the NHS - its open to debate whether this is new money - the optics on this are all down to what you want to believe. Those who want Johnson will believe the promise; those who don't won't.

The penny hasn't fully dropped in parliament. There is talk of a vote of no confidence being called by Labour 'at the earliest opportunity' in September. The reality is its too little too late and is unlikely to work to have the desired effect and inside will play right into Johnson's plan. The failure of the Opposition to spot what he was likely to do, has been the story of the last 3 years, where Remainers have been reactionary and unable to anticipate what would happen next. Their lack of imagination and inability to look beyond their own rhetoric has been their undoing and may cost us all in the long run.

Meanwhile in Brussels, the EU unlike our Parliament have recognised the inevitability of no deal and if Johnson wants no deal there is no way to stop it. And that he has no inclination whatsoever to negotiate.

The expectation is still that the EU will have the backstop and the Brexit Bill of £39 billion as the requirement for the opening of trade talks if we no deal.

Which leaves up shit creek.

At the same time the new trade minister Liz Truss is full on libertarian and talking to the US with this in mind.

That would mean a bonfire of rights and standards which will horrify many. That means goodbye to workers rights, food standards and data protection.

The tech giants have the ears of Washington so British ideas of a tax on them are being seen as a block on a US trade deal.

It comes as the UK has joined a US coalition to protect ships in the Gulf - something we were originally given a snub against, and led to Jeremy Hunt saying we would join a European led force. Its not clear what, who or how the US uturn has come about...

Meanwhile our summer holidays are all getting more expensive... and this is just the start of it.

This is real. This isn't a bluff.

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RedToothBrush · 10/08/2019 18:46

Big Choc, there is political will that there hasn't been for a couple of decades and space mining looks economically tempting, so I do think space travel is a sector for the next decade or two at least where there will be massive growth.

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BigChocFrenzy · 10/08/2019 19:05

Yep, red I think so too;
we have seen private US zillionaires investing and capability is building up in the required fields

However, I don't expect Cummings or his ilk to be the catalyst
Their dreams are🦄🦄

Space travel / exploitation of resources requires not just dreams, but the ability to plan coherently, forming multidisciplinary teams of experts (!) and the hard grind of many years work

placemats · 10/08/2019 19:05

Re Space and the moon landings:

How the astronauts pissed and pooed in space:

twitter.com/MaryRobinette/status/1152277166996017152?s=19

The amazing story of how handmade technology was instrumental in getting those men to the moon. Think playtex and cross your heart for the spacesuits.

www.history.com/news/moon-landing-technology-inventions-computers-heat-shield-rovers

BigChocFrenzy · 10/08/2019 19:09

Another example of when positive thinking doesn't relace planning & resources ...
but Farage blames the civil service instead of the responsible ministers

Lewis Goodall@lewisgoodall

Brexiters angry about our @SkyNews^ story on govt likely not being able to protect our fishing waters in a no deal.^

Of course it really isn’t the civil service at fault but their political masters. _
_
If we wanted to requisition new vessels it should have started a long time ago.


Nigel Farage@Nigel_Farage

Iceland can, Norway can but our gutless civil service won't. Pathetic.

(link: https://news.sky.com/story/britain-may-be-unable-to-stop-illegal-eu-fishing-in-no-deal-brexit-11781438)
news.sky.com/story/britain-…

HesterThrale · 10/08/2019 19:12

Marcus J Ball isn’t giving up with the case against BJ. He’s appealing.

Eye-opening video evidence?

www.crowdfunder.co.uk/ballvjohnson

m.youtube.com/watch?v=lch6IbF279U

BigChocFrenzy · 10/08/2019 19:14

I hated the FTPA from the minute that fool Clegg proposed the idea

Interesting - Tugendhat is a young Tory "Big Beast":

Tom Tugendhat@TomTugendhat

As if it were needed,
here’s a reminder of why the FTPA is the biggest constitutional pigs’ breakfast in generations.

A cretinous piece of legislation that weakens Parliament, the government and the country causing massive uncertainty and removing accountability.
What a cluster.

And no, this isn’t about leaving the EU, it’s about how we got here and what the act says.

It doesn’t allow a govt to bully through a vote by tacking on a confidence motion
and it doesn’t allow Parliament to bring down a govt that’s failing.

Both are weakened.
How stupid is that?

RedToothBrush · 10/08/2019 19:14

Farage doesn't know about the cod wars.

Or this rather crucial thing.

The Third Cod War concluded in 1976, with a highly favourable agreement for Iceland; the United Kingdom conceded to a 200-nautical-mile (370-kilometre) Icelandic exclusive fishery zone after threats that Iceland would withdraw from NATO, which would have forfeited NATO's access to most of the GIUK gap, a critical anti-submarine warfare chokepoint during the Cold War.

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woman19 · 10/08/2019 19:18

That's the fun thing about the fascism. It makes a lot of sense. To the insensible.

he has no more realistic plans to actually do something than that dreaming 12-year-old

Have you read The Tin Drum? Film is not bad.

A metaphor for Nazism. Fascism is patently arrested development. The book uses a physical metaphor to show this.

Many troubled souls stay trapped at the age when a big life trauma happens when they were kiddies. Current resident of no 10's parents' separated while he was at a violent english private boarding school; he was a little boy.

Then he wanted to be 'King of the World'. One can understand why.

I partly blame Stanley Johnson for what we are going through.

MPs would first have to choose a PM to replace BJ

We're living through the constitutional, and soon economic wild west. Previous precedent is from the olden days. There will be no logic to what is about to happen. That's from the olden days too.

They will do what they want. When they want. How they want.

www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2019/08/10/an-unconventional-carry-on/

@JohnRentoul
Main point: motion of no confidence will be carried against Johnson only if election leading to no-deal Brexit certain to be avoided

On the space stuff/ fish fights and more: the Freudian allusions of the dreams of these 'brexit' incels of the left and right is so rich, it is embarrassing.

BigChocFrenzy · 10/08/2019 19:21

I remember how embarassing the Cod Wars were at the time:

two little Icelandic gunboats running rings around our fearsome RN frigates who were sent there
The world laughing at us and nearly all sympathising with little Iceland, pop about 300k, taking on the UK

and then the US - as always - putting its interests before ours and ordering the UK govt to give in

The RN would dread a repeat
They would probably get holed frigates again and / or they again look like bullies getting their comeuppance

I hope the govt doesn't reinforce those 12 patrol boats with warships, but they don't seem to draw sensible conclusions from history

BigChocFrenzy · 10/08/2019 19:26

No, I haven't read it, woman Synopsis is unusual
Although an incorrigable bookworm, I'm afraid 99.9% of what I read is scifi Blush

woman19 · 10/08/2019 19:28

Wish I could read Sci Fi Bigchoc I can't get the hang of it, and so much is so useful for what we're going through now.

BigChocFrenzy · 10/08/2019 19:29

"only if election leading to no-deal Brexit certain to be avoided"

i.e. only if the Whips calculate that the other Opposition parties plus sufficient Tory rebels support Corbyn as PM

I wonder if he'll discipline any dissenting Lexiters over this rather more strongly than he did over earlier Brexit votes Hmm

BigChocFrenzy · 10/08/2019 19:30

My late dad liked scifi too and I started reading his books from age 9, hence the early addiction

BigChocFrenzy · 10/08/2019 19:37

Might be good if I could really enjoy other books, woman, but apart from a very occasional thriller, I don't

With my choice of books, I am completely transported into the world of that book, whether an actual other fictional world, or the fictional world of the thriller

Although of course I read many classics at school, they didn't provide the same entrancement

Films are no comparison, because they use the imagination of the script writer / director instead of mine

BigChocFrenzy · 10/08/2019 19:43

I occasionally enjoy reading science books too or Naomi Klein etc, plus but that is because of the new knowledge or viewpoints

Klein's "Shock doctrine: the rise of disaster capitalism" gives an insight into what is going on in the West

Have you read that yet, woman ?
red you had that book on your shelf too

Hoooo · 10/08/2019 19:45

I've got that one on my shelf bcf

I'm still feeling a bit raw after watching the final series of oitnb.

Hazardtired · 10/08/2019 19:50

Hooo Just finished Oitnb yesterday. DP cried. The ICE camp and court process Shock and you know it's worse in real life.

Hoooo · 10/08/2019 19:59

I sobbed for two hours:(

woman19 · 10/08/2019 20:07

I'll check it out BCF. I am actually reading Mrs Merkel's book club choice now. WinkThe Tyrants. So funny to see the similarities between Elizabethan 1st then and now........ I enjoyed The Silk Roads, last month, which Peregrina recommended ages ago. My men family love the sci fi........I'll have another go. Smile Doris Lessing was a great advocate.

Hoooo · 10/08/2019 20:10

Liked the silk road.
Just finished a book about the 1st crusade, a book about the Oedipus myth and Rob Lowe's autobiography.

BigChocFrenzy · 10/08/2019 20:22

I heard about Merkel's holiday reading Grin
She may have a different idea of hols to mine

Did you find Klein gave pointers to what is happening, Hooo, or is it on your shelf awaiting a Merkel-type hols ?

re ICE - ever grimmer and ratchetting up .....

www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/jun/22/texas-tornillo-detention-camp-migrant-children-separations

Texas town denounces 'twisted and shameful' camp for migrant children

www.theguardian.com/us-news/2019/jul/01/us-immigrant-children-health-insurance-public-charge-rule

8.3m children of immigrant families risk losing health insurance under new rule

www.theguardian.com/us-news/2019/aug/10/ice-raids-us-immigration-workplaces

White House ordered Ice agents to identify targets across the US, report says, with focus on workplaces

www.theguardian.com/us-news/2019/aug/10/day-ice-came-to-mississippi-immigration-raids

Crying children and broken families: huge raids break immigrant communities

Hoooo · 10/08/2019 20:24

It's on the shelf.

I'm not feeling mentally strong enough for it atm tbh

BigChocFrenzy · 10/08/2019 20:33

The most inappropriately named Braine is the new Kipper-in-chief
UKIP likely to stay dead & buried , unless Farage gets bored with BXP

Despite only 25k membership, they are badly split with the national executive - until it is probably replaced - struggling against the far right takeover

They may however be some of the Brexiter street thugs that stripey and others have come across

Peter Walker@peterwalker99

Ukip leadership news: for all the hope among senior members about a change to the Gerard Batten/far right era, Batten’s chosen candidate, Richard Braine, has won.
Expect more infighting and/or a confirmation of Ukip as a fringe, far-right, Tommy Robinson party.

Remember, Ukip’s national executive had barred Batten from standing again in an attempt to move the party on from his anti-Islam obsession.
That seems to have been foiled.

Braine won 53% of the vote in a four-candidate field, so an easy win.
Turnout was fairly low, about a quarter of Ukip’s 25,000 or so membership.

< so he was elected, but not much over 3,000 members chose him ! >

wheresmymojo · 10/08/2019 20:56

I've just started Travellers in the Third Reich after recommendations here...

BigChocFrenzy · 10/08/2019 21:44

On to poetry ...

A German colleague said yesterday that the mess BJ is in reminds him of Goethe's "Der Zauberlehrling"

I blinked a moment and then translated this as the "Sorcerer's Apprentice"

I see the frantic attempts of the incompetent apprentice BJ to regain control of the Brexit events he started
- but I don't see who the expert sorcerer is supposed to be Confused
< NO, it can't be Cameron >

However, I learned that "Die Geister, die ich rief" ("The spirits that I called") from this poem, are often used when discussing German political history,
to describe someone who starts events that they then cannot control
but also without an obvious master sorcerer