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Brexit

Westminstenders: Promises, promises

962 replies

RedToothBrush · 05/08/2019 23:26

Today polling showed that there was a majority in Scotland who support Independence. The 'Boris Bounce' really isn't universal. And this is a firm sign all is not well.

There is talk tonight that Johnson is planning to stay on as PM even if he loses a vote of no confidence in order to force No Deal through and prevent a government of national unity. Instead he would call a 'people v politicians' general election to be held shortly after we'd left the EU.

Johnson's willingness to defy parliament should not be discounted and should be taken seriously. Its highly likely in one way or another. No deal is technically illegal, but its also the default. This does not seem to be fully recognised by remainers. But this is a man who lied and continued to lie. And there is every sign that he would be willing to cause some sort of constitutional crisis. Especially if he really is like Trump. This is what authoritarians do - defy convention and rip up the rule book - because the powers that are suppose to hold them to account are too weak to hold them to account. Something that Johnson has already proved time and again. He has no respect for others.

All the signs are Johnson is in fully into campaigning for a GE already. He's touring the country and ignoring Europe. He's offering money for the NHS - its open to debate whether this is new money - the optics on this are all down to what you want to believe. Those who want Johnson will believe the promise; those who don't won't.

The penny hasn't fully dropped in parliament. There is talk of a vote of no confidence being called by Labour 'at the earliest opportunity' in September. The reality is its too little too late and is unlikely to work to have the desired effect and inside will play right into Johnson's plan. The failure of the Opposition to spot what he was likely to do, has been the story of the last 3 years, where Remainers have been reactionary and unable to anticipate what would happen next. Their lack of imagination and inability to look beyond their own rhetoric has been their undoing and may cost us all in the long run.

Meanwhile in Brussels, the EU unlike our Parliament have recognised the inevitability of no deal and if Johnson wants no deal there is no way to stop it. And that he has no inclination whatsoever to negotiate.

The expectation is still that the EU will have the backstop and the Brexit Bill of £39 billion as the requirement for the opening of trade talks if we no deal.

Which leaves up shit creek.

At the same time the new trade minister Liz Truss is full on libertarian and talking to the US with this in mind.

That would mean a bonfire of rights and standards which will horrify many. That means goodbye to workers rights, food standards and data protection.

The tech giants have the ears of Washington so British ideas of a tax on them are being seen as a block on a US trade deal.

It comes as the UK has joined a US coalition to protect ships in the Gulf - something we were originally given a snub against, and led to Jeremy Hunt saying we would join a European led force. Its not clear what, who or how the US uturn has come about...

Meanwhile our summer holidays are all getting more expensive... and this is just the start of it.

This is real. This isn't a bluff.

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Hazardtired · 10/08/2019 15:04

I'M only halfway through reading - I've seen this referenced elsewhere before, maybe here, I thought it was a piss take....it wasn't a piss take???? Really???

O....kaaay...

Here are two beliefs Dominic Cummings holds about Brexit. One: he believes it will help us to phone up Jeff Bezos and partner with him on creating a base on the moon, which will in turn enable us to industrialise space.

Two: he believes it can be delivered by using the same models of government that will inevitably be required to avoid an apocalypse brought on by either nuclear war or an artificial intelligence (AI) that decides to destroy the human race.

www.buzzfeed.com/alanwhite/dominic-cummings-brexit-plan?origin=shp

Supposedly there's threads of good ideas but he leaves it to the reader to fill in the blanks on how the good ideas link into practicalities.

Icantreachthepretzels · 10/08/2019 15:08

I thought Jo Swinson ruled out specifically working with Corbyn? not labour, likewise would work with Con remain MPs (precious few)

There is not excuse for anyone refusing to work with anyone in the bid to stop to no deal brexit. That includes Corbyn, Jo Swinson and any Tories she may be trying to attract. It's a team effort and the the team is 'team stop nod deal brexit' - nothing else, no other beliefs nmatters for this one thing. The ghost of Thatcher herself could rise up and join the remain alliance and I would be cheering her on and cursing any numpty that refused to work with her.

would no deal be an option ?
It would seem very foolish for them to change the way politics has been done for a hundred years, go against hings they've always believed in, cross red lines that their party has held as sacred tenets for decades in order to stop no deal ... to then offer no deal on a platter to a radicalised and under educated public.... so probably yes it will Hmm

tobee · 10/08/2019 15:10

So thanks guys, after yesterday's discussions, the doorbell just went and my camping stove and two wind up torches arrived. They are cheap but I hope will do the job. Gas canisters and wind up radio/flashlight to come! Smile

QueenOfThorns · 10/08/2019 15:16

That is exactly what Lexiters are cynically counting on

So, vote Labour and reward the cynical Lexiters or vote someone else and reward the even more cynical, evil Tories who are the ones who are actually doing Brexit.

To quote my 5-year-old DD after she’d been sent to her room for misbehaving the other day: ‘Why is living so tricky?’ Sad

BigChocFrenzy · 10/08/2019 15:35

Queen The Tories are doing what they and over 70% of their voters believe in, although batshit & incompetent

Labour know how bad No Deal will be,
but are deliberately betraying over 70% of their voters because of a minority clique within their party and because of Corbyn's ego.

I find wilful betrayal of your own voters more unforgiveable than stupidly doing what your voters demand
but never mind, we may have to agree to disagree on that

Crucial difference is probably that I have always been a floating voter, with no loyalty or animus wrt any mainstream (i.e. non-fascist) party

QueenOfThorns · 10/08/2019 15:56

Yes, let’s agree to disagree! I was brought up to believe that the Tories are the evilest of the evil and it’s pretty much ingrained. (They’re not exactly proving this idea wrong at the moment to be honest.)

Do bear in mind, though, that the reason the Tory voters believe in Brexit is because they were lied to and manipulated by Johnson, Gove et al in the first place...

BigChocFrenzy · 10/08/2019 16:04

They were lied to about the price of Brexit

However, the nationalist, anti-immigrant, authoritarian, anti-welfare state views many Tories hold would cause them to want Brexit,
but probably not to have voted for it at its real price

Now of course, same as the much smaller number of Lexiters, they can't bear to think they were conned about the price / consequences
So most Brexiters have turned completely fanatical about it

BigChocFrenzy · 10/08/2019 16:32

Meanwhile ...

Spring 2019 Standard Eurobarometer: Europeans upbeat about the state of the European Union – best results in 5 years

Separate surveys across the 28 (including UK) members
UK drags down the average a bit

https://europa.eu/rapid/press-releaseIP-19-49699_en.htm

Trust in the EU is at its highest level since 2014 and* remains higher than trust in national governments or parliaments*
< that last bit is significant >
....
Europeans are optimistic about the future of the EU (average 61%)
....
Europeans say they are satisfied with the way democracy works in the EU (55%)
.....
A majority of Europeans agree that “their voice counts in the EU" (56%)
....
Support for the Economic and Monetary Union and for the euro reaches a new record high (76%)
.....
In all 28 Member States, more than half of respondents feel that they are citizens of the EU (average 73%)
...
A large majority of EU citizens support “the free movement of EU citizens who can live, work, study and do business anywhere in the EU” (81%, down to 68% in UK)

prettybird · 10/08/2019 16:38

Working link to the latest Eurobarometer

europa.eu/rapid/press-release_IP-19-4969_en.htm

Icantreachthepretzels · 10/08/2019 16:43

I find wilful betrayal of your own voters more unforgiveable than stupidly doing what your voters demand

This might be true - but the result of a post brexit election will be the deciding factor on what ultimately happens trade wise with Europe and the rest of the world. And therefore it is important to decide who you want to be in charge of that - labour may have acted appallingly, but life will be worse for ordinary people if it is the conservatives that are given the whip hand - and we have to vote for the future we want, not to settle grievances of the past (even if it is the very recent past). The new government will also have non-brexit related policies that will touch our everyday lives in every aspect. The tories have crippled us with austerity (how many needless deaths to date?), squeezed the public sector, run down the nhs, food banks are now the norm - this will only continue on steroids if they win another election.

Voting for the remain alliance in a labour/ tory marginal seat so as not to reward labour's cynicism means allowing more tory mps - allowing a tory government. That means Atlantic bridge, chlorinated chicken, Singapore on Thames, bonfire of health and safety regulation, reduced workers rights and the complete destruction of the nhs.
For those of us living in this country, who will have to deal first hand with the fall out of a reelected tory government for many many years to come - refusing to vote labour in a tory/ labour marginal because they were slow on the uptake of a PV (which is now their policy!) is a fucking stupid thing to do. It is not worth risking getting a tory reelected by voting remain alliance to make a point. That means a vote for remain alliance is allowing a chance for a tory majority - and handing them the opportunity to fuck us over for another five years in pursuit of their hard right/ low regulation brexit dream.

Labour might be being cynical in realising that some remainers will still be forced to vote for them - but it's like I said about no one should be ruling out working with anybody to stop this, nobody should be ruling out voting for anybody to stop the ERG getting five more years to destroy us completely. Tactical voting - as it was in 2017 - will have to be very much in force. Stopping the tories getting a majority is what matters above all else in a post brexit (even a pre brexit) election.

I don't want an election because I don't want to vote labour at the moment. I agree, they have betrayed voters, they have been cloth eared, they haven't done the job of opposition well enough and they are too wrapped up in their own ideology. But their ideology is less harmful than the ideology of my current MP - and that is what affects my life and what I have to live with. Removing the harmful toad who currently takes my constituencies seat - who is a landlord who voted against rented accommodation having to be fit for human habitation, who voted for no deal in the indicative votes - is far more important, and better for the country, than sending Corbyn a message that I think he's a twat (I do). So I will vote for them.

It's not about rewarding them - it's not about them at all. It's about trying to limit the damage to the country as far as possible by not allowing the people who caused the damage in the first place a further opportunity to fuck us all over whilst they make themselves richer. It's a tragedy and a terrible flaw in our politics that we don't really have anything to vote for - just things we want to vote against and prevent ... but it is the current state. It is what it is - and that's the reality we have to deal with. Rejecting that reality because you're angry with labour will ultimately only harm ordinary people more than it harms labour - and definitely more than it harms the tories.

Not that I want labour to get a majority - I would much prefer a hung parliament and a coalition that excludes the ERG. If I were in a seat where the lib dems/ green stood a chance of winning I would vote for them. If I were in a lab/lib marginal I'd vote for the liberal democrats. But if I vote for them where I am now I might as well just spoil my ballot and hold the door open for my current mp to sweep back into his seat - where he can continue fucking us over as he has since 2010. Fuck that.

prettybird · 10/08/2019 16:50

I'm just glad I live in Scotland so don't have the angst as to who to vote for Wink

TheElementsSong · 10/08/2019 16:58

In the past couple of elections, plenty of otherwise fervent Remainers weren't going to vote LibDem because they couldn't forgive them for the coalition and (in 2017) chose to believe their preferred side of Labour's Schrödinger position. Fair enough and understandable that the bigger picture was pushed into the background (because everybody has different hair-on-fire), even though in part their votes contributed to the triumph of Jared O'Mara over Betrayer Clegg, and the never-allowed-to-be-forgotten "80% of voters voted for Brexit-supporting parties" and took us all further down the murky path to where are are now.

So forgive me if I find it a teensy bit hypocritical to pre-emptively berate others who perhaps might not be able to forgive Labour for being fucking useless over Brexit and the ensuing shitshow, for not otherwise being able to see the bigger picture when it comes to subsequent elections.

(Note: I'm a floating voter, always have been, so am not saying that I will be an unforgiving Labour-non-voter when the time comes - just, well, maybe might need some new specs to see that new big picture).

TheElementsSong · 10/08/2019 17:05

On reflection, "berate" is not the right verb, perhaps "chide" 🤔 would be better. With adverbs like "mildly" or "regretfully."

BigChocFrenzy · 10/08/2019 17:08

Lucky pretty

If we No Deal, it'll be many years before I give a fuck which bunch of shits is in govt
(excluding Farage - he's dangerous and I'd vote tactically to exclude him)

No Deal will be because of gross stupidity tied in with nationalism;
however not just by the politicians, but by voters too
If polls showed that a significant number of voters had changed their minds, then politics would have stopped Brexit
However, the public is mostly confident plucky Britain will beat the EU or indifferent

Neither Labour nor Brexiters gave a fuck about me; I don't give a fuck about them
I won't vote against my principles to save people from what they chose to do to themselves - and Ireland

I don't think it good to continually try to protect people from the bad choices they make, whether as individuals or as a country

H.L. Mencken:

"Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want and deserve to get it good and hard"

BigChocFrenzy · 10/08/2019 17:10

Also, imo, the only way to survive No Deal Brexit in the longterm will be total ruthlessness and single-mindedness
Tories would be better at that than Labour

BigChocFrenzy · 10/08/2019 17:17

If Labour take over after No Deal Brexit, then Brexiters will feel more betrayed than ever that their dream of Britannia Unchained leading world etc hasn't happened

They'll never believe that the problems weren't caused by Labour, either deliberately, or a a consequen ce of Labour policy

So, they'll turn to Farage.
Or somone even worse. Yaxley-Lennon ?

imo, After No Deal, the Tories need to stay in power for at least a few years,

long enough to prove to even the most stubborn Brexiter that any and all disadvantages came from Brexit itself,
not from betrayal by Remainers in the civil service or elsewhere

prettybird · 10/08/2019 17:44

That's where Scotland becoming independent could be useful as a contrast Wink as it shows a different approach is indeed possible Grin

Hoooo · 10/08/2019 17:48

Ds1 is getting my vote so I don't have to worry about the venal lot of the motherfuckers.

I'll just vote the way he wants me to.

It's his future.

There is NO ONE I can vote for.

I wonder how many other remainers feel the same?

RedToothBrush · 10/08/2019 17:49

Re Cummings and those comments, I don't think they are quite as outlandish as they might seem.

Re some sort of big disaster, being so dependent on the rest of the world and having lots of long supply chains, especially when you live on an island, is leaving yourself mightly exposed and vulnerable. We should be looking to be more self sufficient in feeding ourselves and in terms of resources to protect against that. The idea is that a harsh Brexit will force huge lifestyle changes out of need whilst minimising the potential damage (dealing with the same when we are less prepared and in the middle of a world crisis) even if risks lives, it potentially saves lives in the longer term because we're too comfortable to otherwise make those kind of changes by forethought and planning as we don't want to. There's an argument that Russia is much better prepared than we are because they've had to deal with sanctions.

It's about improving food security. Except its going to destroy the food security of a lot of people currently already on the breadline.

I personally think there is some merit to this as an argument though I don't necessarily agree with it, I can see where it comes from.

Climate change and a destabilising world were chemical attacks or dirty bombs are possible which threatens international security compounded with humans become obselete and surplus to employment requirements does potentially point towards some sort of apocalyse scenario emerging.

As for the moonlanding stuff I think he comes from a place of seeing necessity being the mother of invention, in the sense that in order to survive we'll have to take bigger risks in science and find new avenues to channel our ideas and ability into. Space exploration is the most natural candidate for that. Human progression comes in leaps in certain areas (the list I forget but its something like exploration, science, culture and yeah I forget) and exploration is the one we are over due a new leap in.

Do I think this will happen? It depends. Its interesting that Macron has recently announced the space corps branch of the French airforce. The thing is it relies on visionaries and investment. I find it questionable as to whether we will have either.

The idea isn't necessarily wrong, but it's a huge gamble that could just as easily backfire.

His basic problem is that government and more in particular the civil service lack 'foresight' - forgetting that their job is risk management not risk taking. They are by nature risk averse and reactionary, rather than proactive visionaries. They therefore massively dislike change, whereas he believes in enforcing change by 'burning the place down' arguing that for example, the end of WWII triggered a huge period of large scale projects and social improvements (conveniently forgetting Marshall Aid).

I think he is looking at things in an interesting way, which isn't as out there as it might seem. He does, undoubtedly have a way of phrasing it badly and coming out sounding like a nut bar, and omitting important problems and concerns.

I don't walk away from reading what he's said thinking he's mad. But I don't think he's a genius either and his thinking is disjointed and pretty incoherent at times (he's not an easy read). It's like he's got 56447 ideas running around his head at the same time but can't quite articulate them.

On this though...

The article also says:
Cummings is intrigued with the concept of which stories our policymakers believe — at one point, he claims “The better educated think that psychological manipulation is something that happens to ‘the uneducated masses’ but they are extremely deluded,” and he may well be right.

There is no may well be right about it. He absolutely is right. Everyone is susceptible to propaganda. Advertising is in essence a form of propaganda. It has all the same features just a different name. And yes I do think there are lots of educated people who think they are immune to propaganda but will happily buy something because of good branding or marketing.

I don't dismiss him. Just take him with a pinch if salt.

OP posts:
RedToothBrush · 10/08/2019 18:17

Ukip have a new leader.

Richard Brain.

(I wonder if he has any nicknames)

OP posts:
placemats · 10/08/2019 18:26
Grin

For a microsecond I thought UKIP? who are they? Then I engaged my brain.

woman19 · 10/08/2019 18:29

Autarky is an old fascist economic model.

Autarky means self-sufficiency. That is when a country provides all its important economic needs and is thus not dependent on imports from other nations

Hitler considered autarky to be a crucial element in Germany's return to economic, political and military glory and for a country geared towards war. Such a nation would be able to limit the impact and damage inflicted by economic blockade
www.gcsehistory.org.uk/modernworld/germany/autarky.htm

It's just weaponising starvation. An age old trick.

RedToothBrush · 10/08/2019 18:37

Indeed.

But the idea looks attractive to some quarters...

...i get the logic that's being pushed.

But I fundamentally disagree with no deal precisely because of this type of weaponisation.

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BigChocFrenzy · 10/08/2019 18:42

I watched the 1st moonlanding.

As a 12-year-old, I went outside that evening, gazed at the moon in wonder and dreamed how far space travel could go before I was as ancient as today in my lifetime

I never thought there would be such a hiatus in developing space, setting up colonies with the solar system, exploiting the resources of the asteroid belt

So that's maybe the one topic where I agree enthusiastically with Cummings

However, going by his track record, he has no more realistic plans to actually do something than that dreaming 12-year-old

BigChocFrenzy · 10/08/2019 18:45

As discussed on earlier threads re what can HMQEII do:

MPs would first have to choose a PM to replace BJ

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/aug/07/could-the-queen-sack-boris-johnson-the-experts-are-divided

“Short answer:
the Queen could dismiss Boris Johnson if he lost a vote of no confidence and refused to resign,”
said Robert Hazell,, professor of government and constitution at University College London.^

“But she would only do so if the House of Commonss* indicated clearly who should be appointed as prime minister in his place.”