Westministenders: Brexit Preppers Are Traitors Who Don't Believe Enough

[RedToothBrush]

Believe in Brexit. Brexit will be great. If only you believe.

So this is why the pound has tanked.
This is why the Treasury has opened the piggie bank for prep. This has sparked something of a backlash amongst moderates and remain MPs.
This will go towards managing that Channel Tunnel Congestion in Kent we weren't going to have.
And to stockpiling drugs which again was just hysteria.
This is why Gove, an MP who actually does have an eye for detail, has been drafted into the Cabinet Office.
This is why after his stint at DEFRA he is planning to buy tonnes of meat at a fixed price to keep farms in business.

Johnson has been to NI. But it wasn't a publicity stunt apparently. This is a man who posed for a photo when he resigned from the Foreign Office.

He was met with protests.

He also has a phonecall with the Leo Varadkar which was 'warm', before its been said by the DUP that Dublin must be a willing partner in a Brexit Deal.

Johnson is also still sticking to the line that technology can solve the border issue. Technology which will not be available until 2030 at the earliest by the government's own admission.

Johnson has refused to meet any European leaders until they drop the backstop (I note there are no EU meetings planned until mid October just a couple of weeks before the 31st anyway, so this kind of suits him and makes him look tough when really its been timetabled that way for a while. The EU themselves say that the 'next possible contact' with Johnson isn't until the G7 at the end of August anyway too).

However his 'Brexit Sherpa' David Frost - Olly Robbins successor HAS been meeting with EU officials still...

Dr Phillip Lee has confirmed today that he is actively considering his future as a Tory and defecting to the LDs. The rumour has been going for a while, and he is in the process of being deselected by his local party. To openly say it, is quite something though.

We also have the Brecon By Election today, which if the LD win as expected, would reduce the government's majority to just 1.

It is possible that Johnson will be leading a minority government very soon, if the cards fall the right way.

The speculation is rife that Johnson actively wants to force a GE. This hasn't been helped by Dominic Cummings has ordered the preparation of a Budget in the week starting Oct 7. Which would need to be voted for through parliament.

Votes on budget and other important issues are where not having a majority become crucial.

If a budget vote got stuck and provoked a GE it would perhaps land whilst Brexit Party Supporters had returned to the Tory party but perhaps before all the shit has start to hit the fan and people get really fed up.

And even if we do have no deal, when we DO have a deal, we will have to put a bill through parliament to implement it. Whilst everyone has focused on the backstop, no one has thought about this... which is pretty important.

It is remarkable that a No Deal Supporting Government are now seemingly planning for Project Fear.

And we were the crazy ones?

Mark Carney has his report on Brexit to come...

And Country less prepared for Brexit than it was in March....

Pmk.

Loving all the cute pet stories.

Faaaaaaarrrrrrkkkkkkk...

I keep compulsorily buying washing up liquid. I have about a year’s supply. I don’t even know why I think that will help.

PMK, just back from Ireland for work where the attitude was a very polite 'w t actual f are you all thinking?!'

I barely use any washing up liquid - less than a bottle a year . But I'm only a 1/3 of the way through my current bottle and I have a spare

More importantly, I also have over 3 months worth of dishwasher tablets (And will probably be getting another 3 months' worth shortly).

I will add my sleeping cat to the mix...

Pmk

Parking myself.

The Cayman Islands article makes it clear that the UK is about to become even more of a rogue state from the pov of financial regulation.
"Money launderer to the world!"

Is this how they do things in Singapore?

"The slide was prepared in the final weeks of then-prime minister Theresa May's time in office." - so not the current cabinet.

My posts keep appearing on the wrong thread - no idea why.

.

We nearly went to that place where the dam might burst on our canal boat holiday. We didn’t because of torrential rain.
I’m stocking up on hair dye.
Priorities you know.

I've bought a very random selection of things this evening in a 'must stock up' shop - birthday candles, pipe repair tape, water purification tablets, a 12 pack of wet wipes, a big bottle of 'nit' conditioner, cystitis tablets. I keep thinking of things. Have also started Christmas shopping. Wouldn't normally do that until the beginning of December!

twitter.com/britainelects/status/1157066549280350208?s=20

Hazel Grove (Stockport) result:

LDEM: 45.7% (+0.8)
CON: 38.9% (+1.2)
LAB: 10.7% (-3.2)
GRN: 4.6% (+1.3)

Liberal Democrat HOLD.

Britain Elects
@britainelects
Brecon & Radnorshire turnout confirmed at 59.7%

The hot weather put me off stocking up on food. I'm worrying about the tinned fish, that must have hit 30 Deg Celsius.

Lewis Goodall@lewis_goodall
Lib Dem source: “We are seeing some big swings on 2017 to us from the Tories across a number of boxes.” #BreconByelection

Lib Dem source tells me Labour vote is in freefall: “Lab vote in deposit losing territory. We will have been massive beneficiaries of that. Lots bringing up Corbyn as a reason for switching to us on the doorsteps - more than just a tactical squeeze.”
#BreconByelection

Was there any doubt that it was going to go back to being Lib Dem? havent seen any differing opinions on it

The Tories have been saying that they think they're in with a good chance but perhaps that is just wishful thinking.

BBC is reporting that the BXP are looking to be 3rd so that would mean a split of traditional Tory voters (and UKIP ran too so another split but likely much smaller).

It would be great if UKIP got less votes than the Monster Raving Loony Party

Labour will come 4th in this 1 id have thought

This is the itv political editor for wales on going thread since earlier this evening as things have developed

Adrian Master @adrianmasters84
I'll start a thread here. This article explains why I think it'll be close tonight in the Brecon and Radnorshire by-election.

www.itv.com/news/wales/2019-08-01/polls-close-in-brecon-radnorshire-will-the-chickens-come-home-for-pm-johnson/
Polls close in Brecon & Radnorshire: will the chickens come home for PM Johnson?

While we wait for counting to begin, I'll share what people are telling me here at the count and via other means.

The Liberal Democrats are hopeful but don't believe they're in landslide territory. They report a sense that Boris Johnson taking over as Prime Minister has had an impact.

The Lib Dems say they've been getting a positive response from 'old supporters and new allies' but one Lib Dem tells me 'the percentages at the end of this could well resemble the referendum tally, hopefully in our favour.'

Labour sources are expecting a bad night. They may be happy if they hold onto their deposit. I understand that all the way through the campaign they've seen their vote 'draining away' to the Lib Dems.

Conservative after Conservative tell me it'll be close. Possibly even recount territory. 'Our vote is strong,' said one 'and going out to vote for Chris [Davies]'

There's a bit of annoyance at the party centrally. Some Conservatives were disappointed that Boris Johnson didn't make more of his campaign stop in Brecon on Tuesday. A lot of activists were ready and waiting for him but he didn't go walkabout.

Some have also reported similar annoyance that Alun Cairns didn't campaign more than a visit to the Royal Welsh show which one said is remarkable given that he's the Secretary of State.

One Conservative: 'the whole thing will depend on Labour switchers. If the Brexit party take them we're in with a shout. If Libs have them then they've won by a mile.'

A prediction from a Labour source: Lib Dems win, Cons 2nd, Brexit 3rd, Labour 4th. But keeping their deposit.

Labour did not stand aside in the 'Remain alliance' but unofficially hope it succeeded. 'We want Boris to be defeated,' one source says.

Sources in parliament have heard there could be up to five Tory MPs ready to defect if the Lib Dems win tonight.

Another Conservative who's been phone canvassing feels the vote for Chris Davies is holding up. They think they may have picked up a few new voters who like Boris Johnson. But still think Lib Dems will narrowly win.

A Lib Dem victory by 2,500 votes they reckon.

Some hints the turnout could be 40-50%

Re: criticism of Alun Cairns: I'm told that he went campaigning at least twice as well as the Royal Welsh Show.

Powys council tell me turnout is expected to be announced between 0100 - 0130

The Brexit party believe they've done enough to lure Labour leave voters to vote for them.

Conservatives seem to be doing well in the smaller towns of Brecon and Radnorshire.

Conservatives are cheered after seeing another batch of boxes which look good for them. They still think it's going to be tight though.

Several Conservatives have now told me this has been a nasty campaign. 'The dirtiest campaign I've ever known,' said one. Including personal abuse.

Several Conservatives have now told me this has been a nasty campaign. 'The dirtiest campaign I've ever known,' said one. Including personal abuse.

Another Conservative: the boxes are looking better than we thought.

Labour source says early boxes are looking better for Conservatives than expected and worse for Brexit party than expected.

That seems to back up theory tactical voting has happened: Brexit party supporters going to Conservative, Labour to Lib Dems.

I should point out that's not what the Brexit party think has happened.

Conservatives feel they’ve won in Hay and Rhayader. Some think it’s ‘tight but ok... the towns will be the decider’

The acting returning office confirms that the final ballot box from the 93rd polling station in Brecon and Radnorshire has now arrived at the count.

Reports keep coming back that for every box that the Conservatives win there's another that the Lib Dems win. Neck and neck.

Brexit party sources acknowledge they’re likely to come third. Have supporters drifted back to the Tories? ‘We’re only three months old. These parties have big campaign machines.’

Post-watershed language: Lib Dems say Conservative claim they've won Hay is 'bollocks...they definitely haven't won Hay.'

Lib Dems say all sorts of boxes are showing big swings compared to their 2017 results. 'All the signs are pointing to a close result.'

Brexit party sources who've surveyed ballot boxes being verified think Lib Dems have won the by-election with half of the vote. Conservatives with a third. Brexit party 1 in 10 and Labour below that.

Ok everyone. I think I'm about to report the turning point. Bear in mind counting hasn't even begun yet but based on what the parties are telling me after surveying the ballot papers as they've been verified....

The crucial town of Ystradgynlais seems to have gone to the Lib Dems. 'We've lost Ystradgynlais,' says one Tory. 'That's us done.'

They go on: 'the Labour vote seems to have collapsed and gone to the Lib Dems. What we didn't want.'

Verification complete. Counting about to begin.

Lib Dem: 'I'm much more cheerful now than earlier on.'

Turnout: 59.72%

Lib Dems say Labour votes going to them

Tories say the likely result in Ystradgynlais is a big blow.

Tories: still tight, doesn't mean it's lost yet. But they're much less optimistic now.

Labour reckons it was voters in the lower part of the Swansea Valley helping the Lib Dems. 'What swung it for the Lib Dems was Labour votes in Ystradgynlais and Ystalyfera

Total number of verified votes in Brecon and Radnorshire by-election: 31,887, a turnout of 59.72%

. @roger_scully tells me it's the highest turnout in a parliamentary by-election this parliament

Conservative: it's too tight to call.

I have no idea about betting so I pass this on unaltered and without any explanation: ‘massive move on betfair conservatives just back in from 17-1 to 8-1 proper money changing hands.’

Also passing on this unaltered: ‘just to give some context to the crucial areas; the region of Ystalyfera that is within B&R is composed of just two housing estates. slim margins indeed’

I’m told they’re ‘pure Labour strongholds’ so showing how Labour votes have gone to Lib Dems in this by-election

Brecon and Radnorshire state of play at 0050: Counting is underway. Too close to call between Lib Dems and Tories but the Lib Dems look they have momentum behind them. Brexit party 3rd. Labour hoping to keep deposit.

Brexit party are happy with their likely 3rd place and not worried about 'splitting Brexit vote' - their aim is to remind Tories they're there and willing to 'take them apart' if they don't deliver Brexit.

The noticeable thing here is turnout. It was predicted to be 40 - 50%. It was 59%. Some places aren't that high for a General!

Adrian Masters @adrianmasters84
The counting is ahead of schedule but that doesn't necessarily mean the declaration will be much earlier than the predicted 0245, particularly if there are recounts.

Great turnout.

Fingers crossed for a Lib Dem win.

After years of being a floating voter and having spent time with all three parties online and doing a lot of research and thinking I have finally opted to join the Lib Dems now that the leadership vote is over and I can cancel my Tory membership.

I'm going to train on campaigning with them in November and will be campaigning in any by-elections that happen within a reasonable distance.

The party policies are shaped and voted on by members so at least their is an opportunity to influence the whole TWAW thing.