Westministenders: Brexit Preppers Are Traitors Who Don't Believe Enough

[RedToothBrush]

Believe in Brexit. Brexit will be great. If only you believe.

So this is why the pound has tanked.
This is why the Treasury has opened the piggie bank for prep. This has sparked something of a backlash amongst moderates and remain MPs.
This will go towards managing that Channel Tunnel Congestion in Kent we weren't going to have.
And to stockpiling drugs which again was just hysteria.
This is why Gove, an MP who actually does have an eye for detail, has been drafted into the Cabinet Office.
This is why after his stint at DEFRA he is planning to buy tonnes of meat at a fixed price to keep farms in business.

Johnson has been to NI. But it wasn't a publicity stunt apparently. This is a man who posed for a photo when he resigned from the Foreign Office.

He was met with protests.

He also has a phonecall with the Leo Varadkar which was 'warm', before its been said by the DUP that Dublin must be a willing partner in a Brexit Deal.

Johnson is also still sticking to the line that technology can solve the border issue. Technology which will not be available until 2030 at the earliest by the government's own admission.

Johnson has refused to meet any European leaders until they drop the backstop (I note there are no EU meetings planned until mid October just a couple of weeks before the 31st anyway, so this kind of suits him and makes him look tough when really its been timetabled that way for a while. The EU themselves say that the 'next possible contact' with Johnson isn't until the G7 at the end of August anyway too).

However his 'Brexit Sherpa' David Frost - Olly Robbins successor HAS been meeting with EU officials still...

Dr Phillip Lee has confirmed today that he is actively considering his future as a Tory and defecting to the LDs. The rumour has been going for a while, and he is in the process of being deselected by his local party. To openly say it, is quite something though.

We also have the Brecon By Election today, which if the LD win as expected, would reduce the government's majority to just 1.

It is possible that Johnson will be leading a minority government very soon, if the cards fall the right way.

The speculation is rife that Johnson actively wants to force a GE. This hasn't been helped by Dominic Cummings has ordered the preparation of a Budget in the week starting Oct 7. Which would need to be voted for through parliament.

Votes on budget and other important issues are where not having a majority become crucial.

If a budget vote got stuck and provoked a GE it would perhaps land whilst Brexit Party Supporters had returned to the Tory party but perhaps before all the shit has start to hit the fan and people get really fed up.

And even if we do have no deal, when we DO have a deal, we will have to put a bill through parliament to implement it. Whilst everyone has focused on the backstop, no one has thought about this... which is pretty important.

It is remarkable that a No Deal Supporting Government are now seemingly planning for Project Fear.

And we were the crazy ones?

the 2015 election was swung by a few rather shortsighted and puffed up people deciding that rather than being grown up and using their brains, it was far easier to give the LDs a kicking (bet that felt good) than understand why they had to abandon their pledge on tuition fees. Encouraged greatly by the Tory press which made them feel good about it.

And while we are obsessed with trying to find people who have regretted voting Leave, there's a much more interesting question about whether those voters regret it now ?

I do try to stay chipper and zen, but there is a part of me which thinks overall the UK is getting what it deserves after years of a vast majority of people (starting with the perma-non-voting 35%) haven't paid attention to the world around them.

...and as someone who didn't closely follow politics I don't think(?) I even knew the Tories winning meant there was going to be a referendum on the EU.

I suspect Labour didn't push that point too hard for not wanting to put off their own Euro-sceptic voters? I don't remember it being a big point...

It's easy once you get in to following politics to assume others have much more knowledge than they do. I would have said at the time I was more conscientious than any of my fellow professionals because I'd at least read key point summaries of the manifesto on the BBC site and do quizzes that take you through policies and then tell you which party you actually think is correct. Most people I know of my age (late 20s/early 30s) weren't even doing that much.

That was me

In my mid 20s I had an amazing opportunity as I was picked as one of 50 people in the UK under 30 to meet with 50 people from Germany under 30 to spend a week at Wilton Park engaging in debates and Q&A sessions, drinks reception at the German Ambassadors, tour of the HoL's, etc.

At the time I thought politics were 'boring' and that there was 'hardly any difference between the parties'. I enjoyed the week but was nowhere near as engaged with it as I could have been and now I kick myself - a) because I'd love to do this programme now! and b) because I wasn't paying enough attention when the start of the current shitshow was forming.

www.wiltonpark.org.uk/events/british-german-forum/

@wheresmymojo - the in-out referendum on the EU was in every manifesto in 2015 except the Lib Dem's - even the Greens. I don't think anyone realises how much the hard leavers would influence the terms though (or that Cameron would be such a limp jellyfish)

At the time I thought politics were 'boring' and that there was 'hardly any difference between the parties'.

because you have been conditioned so. Notice how Boris, Cameron and the like have much more awareness.

remember, in England "knowing your rights" is an insult - specifically used to paint people as troublemakers (we had an industry turning out sitcoms based on it).

Only in England could the characterisation of people actually voting be "anti-democratic".

Perhaps I knew then but just didn't foresee how awful it would be. I wish I could remember what on earth I was thinking!

Unfortunately I think my generation had been lulled into a false sense of security by coming of age at a time of reasonably centrist leadership in both major parties.

We were just young children when Thatcher was PM and had never seen anything harder left than Blair/Brown so not very left at all!

The last five years have been a shock to our systems...

"If any of these are true then I cannot see how a centre Labour Remain strategy works"

In 2010 & 2015, Brext was not the a big issue for left or center voters
Now it is the chasm that divides the country in 2

Why do Lexiters assume that the 70%+ Remainers will be more loyal to Labour than the 30%- Leavers ?

Polls show Lexiters are much less keen on No Deal than Tory Brexiters
Where are the polls analysis re the number of Leavers lost vs the number of Remainers ?

Brexit has been a Tory project, from the start
So those who prioritise Brexit will vote for them - they are votes Labour won't get

.... but their clumsy attempts to do so, risk losing over 70% of those who do normally vote Labour

And risks the Remain anger lasting for many more years

• the LDems have still not recovered from decisions made in 2010; Brexit will likely piss of Remainers for far longer than that

Labour need to choose a side:
Sitting on their fence gives them arse splinters and loses both Remain & Leave votes
If they choose Leave, then fine - their vote can go down the toilet and stay there

A third strand to the thought experiment. What position should Labour have if Boris does indeed deliver Brexit?

via twitter:

Neil Harding
@NeilHarding
·
16h
Labour needs Boris to get us properly out of the EU.

Once we are out, the 2016 result becomes academic.

The conversation will then become who is best to rebuild Britain & make the most of being outside the EU.

Corbyn's Labour are best placed to win this argument.

In answer to BCF, once we have left why would a Remainer desert Labour?

Many of the most ardent Brexit opponents argue once we have left it would be virtually impossible to argue to rejoin - thus why they don't want to risk our current half in / half out and would settle for having it locked in via WA. The ultra-Remainers who want to join the Euro and Schengen are very much a minority.

Labour could dump Corbyn and then they might get more votes.

The LibDems should be asking themselves why anyone would vote for them after we have Brexited? No-one has forgiven them for the coalition or the duplicity of the 2010 manifesto. Even the Tories are trying to distance themselves from failed Osbornomics and starting to work out how to reverse tuition fees etc etc etc.

But why would Labour want to get more votes?

No-one has forgiven them for the coalition or the duplicity of the 2010 manifesto.

Then why did they do so well in the Local and European Elections?

Further to the question of what do the LibDems do if Brexit happens. Where do their Remain lent votes return to?

If Labour is offering a "steady the boat" return to as close as possible to pre-2016, despite Brexit, it will indeed be in trouble.

Email from local Lib Dem’s, they are starting canvassing in anticipation of next election ‘whenever that may be’. Our current Tory MP has been preparing fir an election in the autumn. Labour don’t feature here and we were Lib Dem until 2015.

peregrina zero cost Rmain protest. On that basis I could ask why they did so badly in the Euros? Why didn't they poll 40%+?

Labour could dump Corbyn and then they might get more votes.

The membership are still happy with him for the most part tbh

What worries me is the fact that the Tories got 39% of the vote in the Brecon by-election, wtaf he's an actual criminal but they still voted for him I think that the 'anything in a blue rosette' still applies to a lot of people and I think post Brexit thats going to still be thing, so the end of 2 party politics Im not so sure

That's what my point was suggesting. Labour are only bothered about gaining members. Gaining voters does not seem to be a priority.

Members are the ones on the 'coal' face when it comes to elections though, they're the ones that help people to vote, keep them informed of the manifestos, theyre the ones that keep the lights on for most of the CLP's

"Andrew Neil
@afneil
·
13m
Yield on German bunds now negative up to 30 years. So will Berlin borrow to invest? Olaf Scholz, Germany’s SPD fin min: it is “not a wise idea” to spend more; it would lead to rising prices, not faster economic growth. Who will tell him inflation is the last thing to worry about?"

Andrew Neil arguing for a good old bit of Keynesianism - who'd have thunk it as he would say.

Well as an ex Labour member and activist for many years I'm well aware of that. Gaining members and keeping them happy is one thing if we're talking about, say, a model railway club. But if you're a serious political party, which has a long history and periods of government, where, you know, you actually achieve things, rather than vaguely posturing on the sidelines, what is the actual point?

Only half the question is being answered by Corbyn supporters.

Corbyn supporters and momentum members are just as much a cult as No Dealers. But less popular.

The LibDems should be asking themselves why anyone would vote for them after we have Brexited? No-one has forgiven them for the coalition or the duplicity of the 2010 manifesto.

I think you are crediting people with far too much investment and memory. I think a lot of the LDs dismal 2015/2017 showing was caused by a pro-Tory press goading people into "giving them a kicking" with the promise (they kept) of headline humiliation - lingering slow-mo clips of misery porn as Nick Clegg lost his seat.

I think the EU elections have rebooted the LDs to a certain extent and they're not to be lightly written off.

I think there is a golden hour for Labour and LibDems to redefine themselves without reference to Brexit, but with reference to the sort of country England is going to become. Thus leap-frogging a Brexit obsessed Tory/BXP navel gazing right wing that is harking backwards. And I have chosen every single word in that paragraph with surgical precision .....