Westministenders: Brexit Preppers Are Traitors Who Don't Believe Enough

[RedToothBrush]

Believe in Brexit. Brexit will be great. If only you believe.

So this is why the pound has tanked.
This is why the Treasury has opened the piggie bank for prep. This has sparked something of a backlash amongst moderates and remain MPs.
This will go towards managing that Channel Tunnel Congestion in Kent we weren't going to have.
And to stockpiling drugs which again was just hysteria.
This is why Gove, an MP who actually does have an eye for detail, has been drafted into the Cabinet Office.
This is why after his stint at DEFRA he is planning to buy tonnes of meat at a fixed price to keep farms in business.

Johnson has been to NI. But it wasn't a publicity stunt apparently. This is a man who posed for a photo when he resigned from the Foreign Office.

He was met with protests.

He also has a phonecall with the Leo Varadkar which was 'warm', before its been said by the DUP that Dublin must be a willing partner in a Brexit Deal.

Johnson is also still sticking to the line that technology can solve the border issue. Technology which will not be available until 2030 at the earliest by the government's own admission.

Johnson has refused to meet any European leaders until they drop the backstop (I note there are no EU meetings planned until mid October just a couple of weeks before the 31st anyway, so this kind of suits him and makes him look tough when really its been timetabled that way for a while. The EU themselves say that the 'next possible contact' with Johnson isn't until the G7 at the end of August anyway too).

However his 'Brexit Sherpa' David Frost - Olly Robbins successor HAS been meeting with EU officials still...

Dr Phillip Lee has confirmed today that he is actively considering his future as a Tory and defecting to the LDs. The rumour has been going for a while, and he is in the process of being deselected by his local party. To openly say it, is quite something though.

We also have the Brecon By Election today, which if the LD win as expected, would reduce the government's majority to just 1.

It is possible that Johnson will be leading a minority government very soon, if the cards fall the right way.

The speculation is rife that Johnson actively wants to force a GE. This hasn't been helped by Dominic Cummings has ordered the preparation of a Budget in the week starting Oct 7. Which would need to be voted for through parliament.

Votes on budget and other important issues are where not having a majority become crucial.

If a budget vote got stuck and provoked a GE it would perhaps land whilst Brexit Party Supporters had returned to the Tory party but perhaps before all the shit has start to hit the fan and people get really fed up.

And even if we do have no deal, when we DO have a deal, we will have to put a bill through parliament to implement it. Whilst everyone has focused on the backstop, no one has thought about this... which is pretty important.

It is remarkable that a No Deal Supporting Government are now seemingly planning for Project Fear.

And we were the crazy ones?

One result is no grounds for resignation

However

• He has been imposing his Lexitism on an overwhelmingly Remain party

• hence losing votes and demoralising many activists

• hence Labour have done badly in almost all tests by actual voters since the last GE

• and Labour have been mostly trailing the Tories in opinion polls since he became leader
  despite the most chaotically incompetent govt in about 200 years

As reference for expectations, Blair was soon ahead, up to 20-25% above a Major govt making far less serious mistakes

• and Corbyn's personal polling - "who would make the best PM ?" - has always been worse than Cameron, May and now Johnson

Meanwhile we are siring a generation that is just learning not to trust anyone and that it's every person for themselves.

I'll be honest, if the Boris' of this world aren't bothered by the law, I really can't hold Joe Bloggs down the road to a higher standard.

Remember the judge that specifically made that point in sentencing someone recently ?

If I were on a jury, taking my role as seriously as we all should, then I would have to leave it with a clear conscience.

@JustAnotherPoster00

Yes.... but did they get so bad they damn near lost their deposit? Against a government so extreme and right wing as to actively pursue a no-deal brexit?

Seriously... if Labour cannot win against the current Tories, what the fuck is their point? Really?

I am a former Labour member/voter. I now vote LibDem.

Good luck telling us we are all wrong, that Corbyn is great etc. when manifestly he is not

Can you tell me what their brexit stance is?

Yep, all deals whether its a Labour or a Tory deal is subject to a PV, if its a No Deal Brexit or a Brexit without custom union and single market alignment they will campaign for Remain, hypothetically if Labour one the GE (I know I know but hear me out) it wouldnt have to be a devisive PV campaing it could just be 'this is what weve managed to secure were now giving it back to the people to either back our deal or remain'

As critical as I am of how slow there Brexit response has been and they deserve to lose some votes for it absolutely but I could live with that because throughout all of this Corbyn has tried to keep the focus on domestic policy

Good luck telling us we are all wrong, that Corbyn is great etc. when manifestly he is not

Anyone on this thread will tell you I can be happily admit when Corbyn isnt doing what I think is right as far as Brexit is concerned

Not a confirmatory referendum on No Deal, just a PV, Remain vs No Deal

i.e. not endorsing No Deal, since even most Lexiters, like Corbyn, oppose No Deal because of the harm it would do to ordinary working people

when I say one a GE I meant won but my brin and hands arent friends today lol

brain* FML with all the typos sorry everyone

If Labour win a GE - OR gain power after a VoNC without a GE -

then a PV on their deal vs Remain would be a winner, imo

However, Corbyn would have to make 100% clear promises in the manifesto, or in promising to MPs if it comes to a "post-VoNC" govt
No ifs, no buts

Even then, the "Corbyn factor" means many Labour 2015 voters still won't vote Labour,
even if they gladly vote in the PV

No ifs, no buts

I agree BCF and lets be honest if its in the manifesto you know he'll stick with it because he's been banging the same drum on some things since the 70's

And lets not forget while it was a LibDem that got Brecon would the result have been as good had the greens and plaid stood? Labour voters will happily vote tactically to get rid of a Tory I'm hoping the Lib Dems do the same in any Lab/Con marginal

I think No Deal vs Remain is a better position because no-one wants another 3 years of protracted negotiations to come up with the end point of May's WA as rebranded by Labour.

Lexiters may not want No Deal but they don't want the WA plus a reversal back to BRINO minus either. My guess is some would vote "Revoke and reform" and others would choose "No Deal is better than a Bad Deal" but at least there would be a clear outcome which neither the UK nor the EU negotiators could equivocate from. Ironically this could be the best route to secure a sensible Deal or an acceptance of Remain as least worst option imho.

imo, more likely serious of events:

• No Deal Brexit happens

• BJ calls a GE soon afterwards
  Maybe calls it in late Sept / October to happen right after Brexit, while No Deal effects are expected to be still minor

• Hung Parliament, no Tory majority even with DUP c&s
  Labour & LDems decide against VoNC, to give Tories enough rope, since the public would punish anyone causing another GE immediately afterwards

• 6 months later, economy crashing, No Deal effects hurting many people,
  but BJ won't budge on backstop or exit bill.

• Labour & LDems call a VoNC, which BJ can't put off for long

• THEN, Corbyn (or his successor !) campaigns on the basis of negotiating an SM deal - and win

• Labour agree to backstop & Exit bill, so negotiations start - and hence EU agree GATT 24 can be applied immediately - RELIEF !

• Several years negotiations, but enjoying similar conditions to what would have been the WA transition

i.e. pay, no say, but trade back to (the new) normal - some business lost forever though

I think No Deal vs Remain is a better position

Thankfully Labour would never adopt that No Deal fucks everything a custom union/single market deal doesnt allthough Id prefer to Remain personally

The thing about No Deal is that it means no negotiations

The UK keeps using it as a negotiating tool to make the EU blink and suddenly drop the backstop, the exit bill and everything else the ERG don't like
Brexiters keep relying on this though, because they haven't any other hope

It hasn't worked so far
because the EU know that giving in would be exchanging short term pain for medium term ruin
They won't offer anything more than cosmetic changes, which will not affect the legally binding terms

The Tories are pressuring / bullying Ireland to blink, since the EU won't dump Ireland
So far, domestic pressure on Varadkar has been NOT to blink
However, Ireland is the key to Tory doom or salvation.

mother has just posted what I was going to:

Brexit is a process, not a single event

No Deal means months of economic turmoil, then giving in to the main WA terms, then many years of negotiations

No Deal would be drawing out Brexit longer than any other option
and with the maximum pain & humiliation for Britain

In fact, the only option without years of negotiations under chaos is Revoke !

howabout how does your thought experiment play out. As I understand that situation Labour would be voting for No Deal Brexit with a second referendum during which the party would publicly back Remain.

So, Labour would be advocating exposing everyone to the risk of "No Deal" Brexit, even though the party would, after voting for "No deal", publically campaign for "No Brexit" at all. I'm guessing the thinking here is they would allow to go to a second public vote the least likely type of Brexit be approved, in the hope of defeating it.

There are 2 fundamental problems as I see it , one, there is a huge gap between what lots of people who are Labour Party Members want and what lots of people who are Labour voters want.

Second, how does this deal with the issue of public trust? A fundamental tenet of a democratic society is that if a majority of voters vote for something, it must happen. If the outcome of 2016 has not been delivered how can any voter have any confidence whatever that the outcome of any subsequent plebiscite will be?

The Labour party has been campaigning against Brexit for the last 3 years, yet voters are supposed to believe that they would now deliver a form of Brexit they have previously decried in the strongest possible terms? No chance, IMO.

Essentially Labour would be saying to voters nationwide, we'll deliver what you vote for, but only if you give us the "right" answer this time round.

Despite what Trump says he can't just hand a plum trade deal to the UK in the event of No Deal.

www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/brexit-pelosi-warns-uk-not-to-jeopardise-belfast-agreement-1.3967768

The Democrats in particular, but the Republicans also, have large numbers of senators of Irish descent (inc Joe Biden) who understand the delicate balancing act that is the GFA - better than MPs, it looks like.

Thank you AdequateFood, my cat is pleased to have acquired two new admirers today. I think the vet wanted to steal him - she wouldn’t let him ditch the cone yet, though!

I’m really sorry if this is a stupid question, but the image that someone posted earlier about the aftermath of no deal made me think. It said that UK citizens living in the EU could find they had no rights to services or residency. If this is true, presumably it would also apply the other way around? Are we facing a situation where my DH, despite having lived here for nearly 20 years and paid tax and national insurance all that time, might not be able to stay after 1 Nov? I thought that it had been agreed that wouldn’t be the case.

www.independent.co.uk/money/spend-save/survive-prepare-finances-no-deal-brexit-crash-out-boris-johnson-eu-recession-sterling-a9034986.html

survive, prepare, finances, no deal

A bit how to suck eggs. Assumes you have money to save, space to cut back and assumes your brave enough to look but it's something to have on your radar.

Best read with a drink if your "eek" with money. I am not brave, i am very eek, i wish I had a drink

The point is @QueenofThorns that in the event of no deal we Brits in the EU become third country nationals and our fate can only be decided by our host nation. As a Brit who has been in France for fifteen years I am pretty comfortable with the fact that existing French law will protect our rights to residence, but there will be others whose rights will not be as secure both here and in other EU countries.

www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/breaking-frank-field-ex-labour-18816575

New party?!

@CrunchyCarrot

Sorry - still catching up on the thread on this question though...

What point would there be in the Brexit Party if the UK does leave the EU with some kind of a WA? What would they be putting forward as a policy if we then have a GE? As far as I understand it they simply want to leave the EU - that would have been achieved? There would be no reason for them to exist, other than to aggravate the EU during the transition period.

I listen to NF on LBC on my commute home as like it or not what his 'game' is could be pretty important as things progress.

He's been pretty open and clear that his objectives now extend well beyond Brexit. He wants to see a complete change in politics in the UK starting with abandoning the two party system. I don't actually disagree with this but obviously the rest of his agenda after that has not been shared.

And this agenda appears to be, as we know, tied at least loosely into Bannon, Trump, other alt-right parties.

So my view is there is a game plan:

1. Brexit - remove EU oversight
2. Replace FPTP so that smaller parties have a greater chance of representation. Smaller parties like BXP
3. Then what....? The ultimate aim isn't shared but I doubt any of us on this thread would like it.

QueenofThorns - according to BlowJob (), your dh will be fine as the UK has offered existing E27 citizens "settled status" and a supposedly easy process to acquire it.

However he doesn't seem to think that there is any need to legislate for this so we just have to trust him - not realising that some of the E27 require the legislation to be formalised n the UK before their own legislation is triggered to safeguard UK citizens in those countries

A minor detail - but we all know how much BlowJob loves detail

They're also running scared of introducing any legislation, for fear it could allow those that want to block No deal a vehicle to do so

www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/boris-johnson-eu-citizens-rights-brexit-no-deal-3-million-alberto-costa-a9023746.html