Westministenders: Brexit Preppers Are Traitors Who Don't Believe Enough

[RedToothBrush]

Believe in Brexit. Brexit will be great. If only you believe.

So this is why the pound has tanked.
This is why the Treasury has opened the piggie bank for prep. This has sparked something of a backlash amongst moderates and remain MPs.
This will go towards managing that Channel Tunnel Congestion in Kent we weren't going to have.
And to stockpiling drugs which again was just hysteria.
This is why Gove, an MP who actually does have an eye for detail, has been drafted into the Cabinet Office.
This is why after his stint at DEFRA he is planning to buy tonnes of meat at a fixed price to keep farms in business.

Johnson has been to NI. But it wasn't a publicity stunt apparently. This is a man who posed for a photo when he resigned from the Foreign Office.

He was met with protests.

He also has a phonecall with the Leo Varadkar which was 'warm', before its been said by the DUP that Dublin must be a willing partner in a Brexit Deal.

Johnson is also still sticking to the line that technology can solve the border issue. Technology which will not be available until 2030 at the earliest by the government's own admission.

Johnson has refused to meet any European leaders until they drop the backstop (I note there are no EU meetings planned until mid October just a couple of weeks before the 31st anyway, so this kind of suits him and makes him look tough when really its been timetabled that way for a while. The EU themselves say that the 'next possible contact' with Johnson isn't until the G7 at the end of August anyway too).

However his 'Brexit Sherpa' David Frost - Olly Robbins successor HAS been meeting with EU officials still...

Dr Phillip Lee has confirmed today that he is actively considering his future as a Tory and defecting to the LDs. The rumour has been going for a while, and he is in the process of being deselected by his local party. To openly say it, is quite something though.

We also have the Brecon By Election today, which if the LD win as expected, would reduce the government's majority to just 1.

It is possible that Johnson will be leading a minority government very soon, if the cards fall the right way.

The speculation is rife that Johnson actively wants to force a GE. This hasn't been helped by Dominic Cummings has ordered the preparation of a Budget in the week starting Oct 7. Which would need to be voted for through parliament.

Votes on budget and other important issues are where not having a majority become crucial.

If a budget vote got stuck and provoked a GE it would perhaps land whilst Brexit Party Supporters had returned to the Tory party but perhaps before all the shit has start to hit the fan and people get really fed up.

And even if we do have no deal, when we DO have a deal, we will have to put a bill through parliament to implement it. Whilst everyone has focused on the backstop, no one has thought about this... which is pretty important.

It is remarkable that a No Deal Supporting Government are now seemingly planning for Project Fear.

And we were the crazy ones?

But 62% was NOT an overwhelming Remain vote.

It's pretty much 2:1 - that's pretty convincing in ref terms.

Even the Guardian is singing the pro - Brexit tune.

Ultimately, 54.6% of the vote went to unambiguously pro-Brexit parties in a seat that voted 51.9% for leave in the 2016 EU referendum. The Conservatives know they have a chance to unite that vote if they can credibly leave the EU at the end of October.

No, in a Leave area with a Brexit PM the Tories should have won comfortably.

Agreed pamperramper. My favourite stat on that subject is that roughly the same number voted to Remain in the EU in Scotland as voted Yes. The Yes side LOST on 45%. - (this was despite people being told by everyone from Struth to Nippy to Kezia that a Remain vote was a vote against Indyref2).

Like I said DGR pyrrhic victory. One more LibDem but a clear demonstration to the Gaukward squad that if they rebel there will be a GE and they will lose a ton of votes to LibDems and Brexit Party.

The ERG were prepared to hold out to get rid of May and BRINO. They would rather risk a GE or even a 2nd Ref / Revoke showdown than settle now. If their strategy is a "forced" GE following a Revoke showdown with Parliament (as suggested by Iain Martin in The Times) this helps justify it.

62% qualifies as an overwhelming vote when we are told that 52% is an overwhelming vote for Brexit and that the country just wants to get on with it.

If we are really playing how well should LibDem have done then worth noting the seat is traditional LibDem their majority was less than half that in 2005 and 2010. They would likely not hold it in a GE (just like Richmond as previously referenced).

For once I agree with The Guardian.

Lewis Goodall:
"On paper, this should be a LibDem gain. The local MP has been recalled after expenses fraud and he's standing again. The LibDems are on a roll and have held the seat on and off since the last by-election here in 1985. They also hold the Welsh Assembly seat."

Extract from a more detailed twitter thread.

If anything their low margin of victory speaks to how weak the Remain Alliance is in seats with a Con / LibDem marginal profile - mostly in the South West.

The turnout suggests that a great number of people are quite happy "whatever", and we all have to deal with that. Boris, BXP LDs Labour and the Free Willy campaign (were it to exist).

2 in 5 people really couldn't give a shit. In a family of five, that's the parents.

I wouldn't agree that this was a traditional LibDem seat. Until 1985 it was Tory, sometimes Labour, but boundary changes put paid to Labour.

With the Johnson bounce and a new squeaky clean Tory candidate, it should have done better. No matter, if the narrow win for Leave in the Referendum is taking as being decisive then overturning an 8000 majority under FTPT is also decisive. The Tories can't have it both ways - they like the FTPT system and they lost.

Doesn't look like a "traditional" Lib Dem seat from these stats.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brecon_and_Radnorshire_(UK_Parliament_constituency)

Depends how far back you choose to go for your definition of "traditional". Looks a like a marginal seat.

Agreed DGR. Turnout was down almost 10k on 2017 GE. Given LibDem saturation campaigning and Cons restanding their recalled candidate I am guessing most of those were not Conservative voters.

Peregrina there was no squeaky clean Tory. It was the discredited one. Hence why I think they more or less lost on purpose. 1985 is a very long time ago in electoral terms.

Bit more from Matthew Goodwin on LibDem resurgence:

"Lib Dems 2nd in 37 seats, 28 held by Cons, 7 Lab, 1 PC, 1 SNP. Big lump -13- in South West, where defection of Con Remainers (or not) could be key. Another lump of leafy Con seats in SE
But LD surge cd help Cons elsewhere, hitting Lab vote (assuming boris consolidates Leavers)

Fair to say people tend to over-estimate LD potential at GEs. Maybe next one different. 2 key questions: (1) are we still underestimating Labour tribalism at GE where swinson/austerity cd matter, 2) many Con Remainers went in 2017, how many more will really go if means Corbyn?"

Sorry should read guessing most of the 10k lost turnout were not LibDem voters.

I agree for the Tory party - if they are putting party first as always - it makes sense to go for the Faragist vote

Over 70% of their 2015 voters are Leavers, most No Dealers

BUT
NOT for Labour, who are hemorrhaging votes to the LDems

Even their small Leave minority - under 30% of 2015 voters & 20% of members - are mostly soft Brexiters, against No Deal

Like Corbyn, to be fair to him, who has always opposed No Deal as damaging to British workers and the poor

It makes no sense for both main parties to chase the 2016 51.9% and ignore the 48.1%

The proof is that Labour have been suffering large net vote losses in actual elections by doing so - because they lose far more Remainers than the Lexiters they keep

And some of that 51.9% thought they were voting for a Norway type deal, or otherwise retaining all important SM benefits

Peregrina there was no squeaky clean Tory. It was the discredited one.

That was what I was trying to say, but it obviously didn't come across - a new squeaky clean candidate ought to have been able to pull it off, especially if they had Leave credentials. Putting up a candidate that people could legitimately call a crook was not a good policy.

Turnout was down almost 10k on 2017 GE.
It was a good turn out for a by election.

many Con Remainers went in 2017, how many more will really go if means Corbyn?"

I don't think it is necessarily Corbyn, it was voting for Labour thinking that they were a Remain party and then being told that 80% of people voted for Leave parties. Labour has to get off the fence and decide whose votes matter most to them.

During the 1st Labour leadership campaign, many Tories were desperate for Corbyn to win, because he is the gift that keeps giving,
both his Brexit policy and him personally.

That is another aspect of Brexit that has been ignored:

how much does the increased support for British Nationalism / patriotism increase the likelihood of 2015 Labour voters refusing to vote for Corbyn
Because of his well-publicised past ?

How many Lexiters are traditional Labour wc nationalists / veteran supporters ?
A constituency that hates Corbyn far more than the centrists do.

They are some of the Lexiter votes that have been lost to the more overtly nationalist parties
How much is Brexit and how much is mostly Corbyn ?

Ffs!! I just want my insulin, test strips etc. This lot are hell bent on killing me 😓

And some of that 51.9% thought they were voting for a Norway type deal, or otherwise retaining all important SM benefits

If that were the case, then why are they now happy to continue past that stop onto the final destination no deal ? As polling suggests ?

For various reasons I'd be fascinated to know if there are more people who have definitely lost a job because they are solely British (like the tweet I cited yesterday) ....

Revealed: Johnson ally’s firm secretly ran Facebook propaganda network

The Tory Knight of Darkness has been spreading darkness for all who pay him

www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/aug/01/revealed-johnson-allys-firm-secretly-ran-facebook-propaganda-network

Sir Lynton Crosby’s firm CTF has built unbranded disinformation pages for Saudi Arabia and major polluters

DG A minority are unhappy enough to have switched to Remain, or might at least abstain in a Revoke / No Deal ref

However, mostly - and this is the authoritarian British / English nationalist majority of the Leave vote -
they can't admit that they made a serious mistake in believing that Britain is mightier than the EU and could force a cake deal

Authoritarians find it even harder than the rest of us, to admit that voting for core beliefs led to a terrible mistake

They also eagerly claim victimhood, so that provides an immediate excuse:
they are being "punished" by the EU, Remainers, mc elite ....
and Brexit would have been fine without these enemies

I can accept that Kezia and Ruth used "No to Indyref2" as part of their Remain campaigning, but I have zero recollection of Nicola saying that voting Remain would mean no Indyref2

Indeed, I can recall her a) avoiding campaigning with either Conservatives or Labour (or LibDems ) as she didn't want to be tainted by either party and b) very deliberately avoiding any linking with Indyref2, despite the other parties trying to do so - and trying to provoke her into doing so.

I even heard Nicola explicitly saying that she didn't want to hold another Indyref until she was confident of winning by a good margin as she didn't want a divided country. This was before the EU Referendum, the result of which demonstrates what happens when when you have a close result with multiple visions of what people were voting for (and indeed, some people were voting against things that had sweet FA to do with the EU)

If anyone has any evidence to the contrary from the period of the Remain campaign, I'd be interested to see it.

DG A minority are unhappy enough to have switched to Remain, or might at least abstain in a Revoke / No Deal ref

So a minority ... of a minority ?

Labours result was shocking. Really hope this is the wake up call Corbyn needs to fucking resign already.

Brecon and Radnorshire hasnt been Labour's seat since the 80's its been a Lib/Con marginal dont remember anyone expecting Kinnock, Blair or Milliband to resign because they couldnt bag Brecon [roll eyes emoji]

So the Tories used the threat of leaving the EU in Indyref#1 and then the threat of Indyref #2 in the EU ref ?

They really are a party of twisty weasels

If Labour did that too, then this illustrates how weasely they are prepared to go, too

Hasn't helped either of them in Scotland, as far as I can see
Maybe less tolerance North of the border, re politicians being so blatantly twisty ?

Agreed on all points peregrina

An interesting thought experiment on Labour would be to consider if it had decided to opt for No Deal with a confirmatory Referendum (with the Party allowing both sides to campaign as DC did but the Leadership backing Remain).

By my reckoning this may have placated Lexiters and neutered Brexit Party in the North (if coupled with properly Left domestic agenda of renationalisation, rebuilding services and welfare state etc and economic rebalancing towards the North). It would also have pleased 2nd Refer Remain who said they were confident they would win.