Why do people here have a stash for Brexit?

[ssd]

I can see the point if it's medicines or medical supplies, but I've seen a few threads here where people are stashing tuna, toilet rolls and sweets!?

Are you all fucking mad?

I'm a total remainder but come on, I know it'll be shit but you'll still find asda and tesco will be open

I thought we didn't need to import anything, Clavikins? Make your mind up, love.

Well, I don't think you need to stockpile beans and rice, toilet rolls, bread and milk - frozen veg if you want to.

The present tariff on oranges from Spain is zero. The present tariff rate on onions from France is zero. The UK imports most of its fruit and veg from the EU - which currently has zero tariffs. Fruit and veg from Africa is also imported at zero tariff under the EU 'Everything Except Arms' agreement.

Prices in the shops will rise because of:

• The additional cost of customs clearances, inspections, border delays etc.,
• The shortages of foodstuffs pushing up the market price (Page 1 of any Supply and Demand textbook),
• The increase in price of imported food due to the fall in the value of the £ against the € and $,
• Shortages of labour to pick, pack and process the UK produce resulting in shortages of supply.
• Profiteering on the part of wholesalers and retailers

Televisions are not yet edible.

I'm assuming the list of products that will be tariff free is a random sample, but it did amuse me. Jams, jellies, spoons, television, onions and carpets.

I hate olives

Oh well that’s ok then.

Also if there are currently 10 types of cereal on the market now and it reduces to 8.. fine if you are adaptable. Not fine if you have a disabled child who will only eat brand X and that is one of the two with supply issues. Also disabled child might only have a range of four or five foods they will eat. Any changes can be bloody serious.

Luckily D's has expanded his repertoire from square Weetabix only to a range of more expensive cereals but a range so I have a half decent chance of finding one he will eat.

DD is allergic and has food restrictions that way.

Socksontheradiator
I'm assuming the list of products that will be tariff free is a random sample, but it did amuse me.Jams, jellies, spoons, television, onions and carpets.

Yes, a random sample - BBC humour?

Havanananana
The present tariff on oranges from Spain is zero.The present tariff rate on onions from France is zero...

Yes, I know - but a lot of posters on this forum are under the impression that direct tariffs are being imposed on all imported fruit and veg - not for at least 12 months if the temporary tariff regime is adopted (it could be extended beyond 12 months.)

The shortages of foodstuffs pushing up the market price (Page 1 of any Supply and Demand textbook)

We don't know there will be any shortages of food yet - it's all supposition.

We don't know how the market will react - we do know that UK farmers are worried about cheaper imports, together with not being able to export their produce to EU countries - this would result in a surplus and cheaper prices. Will UK supermarkets, for example, put pressure on Spanish orange growers to lower their prices to cover non tariff barriers? How dependent are Spanish orange growers on the UK market? Will UK retailers/wholesalers source cheaper markets - Tunisian olives/olive oil for example?

"Too much of Tunisia’s quota of olive exports is as unfinished oil, leaving plenty of profit for European–mainly Italian–bottlers and marketing operations in a lucrative cartel." ... "Meanwhile, European consumers pay more than they should for groceries while sending big EU cheques to shore up Tunisia.Where’s the sense in that?"

www.cityam.com/thinking-smaller-why-tunisian-olives-hold-key-uks-post/

Profiteering on the part of wholesalers and retailers
I doubt it - not the big supermarkets/wholesalers.

Shortages of labour to pick, pack and process the UK produce resulting in shortages of supply.

There are shortages of labour every year - we may replace EU workers with cheaper, seasonal, non-EU workers in the short term. In the long term automated picking is on its way;

"Autonomous machine expected to pick more than 25,000 raspberries a day, outpacing human workers." "The robot has been developed in partnership with Hall Hunter, one of Britain’s main berry growers which supplies Tesco, Marks & Spencer and Waitrose."

www.theguardian.com/technology/2019/may/26/world-first-fruit-picking-robot-set-to-work-artificial-intelligence-farming

The increase in price of imported food due to the fall in the value of the £ against the € and $

Foreign exporters/UK wholesalers may absorb some/all of the cost - we don't know yet. We don't know what the exchange rate will be in 3 months time, what trade deals/EU deal we might arrange before the 31st October, what counter measures the Bank of England will take...

We don't know, we don't know, we don't know...

Two possible ways, as an individual, to respond to that lack of knowledge:

(1) Lie supine, in a fluffy cloud of positive emotion and optimism.

(2) "Trust in God, but tie up your camel"

Honestly, Clavtrails don't you have a resit to swot for or something?

Foreign exporters/UK wholesalers may absorb some/all of the cost

Why would they? When have they done this is in the past, except as short term "loss leading"?

AutumnCrow
don't you have a resit to swot for or something?

Are you an embittered left-wing teacher?

It's bollocks, Essential. We all know it is.

EssentialHummus
(Foreign exporters/UK wholesalers may absorb some/all of the cost)

Why would they? When have they done this is in the past, except as short term "loss leading"?

They do it all the time.

They do it all the time.

For example....? (An example tends to include specifics - names, places, things, for credibility.) As someone running a business, "they" don't do it all the time, because it eats into their bottom line.

There is quite a lot of 'they' may do this or the govt have 'pledged' to do that.
Unless you trust 'them' it's wise to stash, I think :)

This thread has been useful. I was not intending to prepare but now I will the amount of “ifs” and general flakiness in leavers responses - well what else would you expect given form I suppose - is quite telling.
Thanks all!

Ps the bit about retailers not pricing on price rises was especially chortle-worthy 😆

That's fab @TheBigBallOfOil! A few of us have always thought and/or said that we would be happy if these threads prompted people to prepare. My mum voted leave and is now regretting her vote and wishing she could change it. She voted on the big bus claims 😩 She now has a good stash and is ridiculed about her brexit tea by a friend but she's glad she's got it. It's thanks to posters on here that I decided to stock up and have got her to do so too.

Me too Bercows and welcome aboard @TheBigBallOfOil

EssentialHummus
For example....?
I haven't really got the time but...

"Waitrose saw profits fall 18% as the supermarket chain was faced with higher costs, "very few" of which were passed on to shoppers, it said."

"The managing director of one UK footwear multiple said: “If we see tariffs increasing overall costs by more than say 3%, perhaps to 10%, then we could expect retailers to pay half [and suppliers to pay half]. “However, if it is a sustained increase in costs, then it will have to ripple through into retail prices."

"Quattro Foods supplies high-street restaurants and food-service providers and reports consistent rising turnover, but its profit margins have declined...We’re unfortunately caught in the middle between the growers/importers charging more and our food-service clients...who are asking us to reduce prices as rising costs can’t be passed on to their end consumers in their entirety.” “So we remain in an industry that’s learning to absorb price increases to maintain business.”

PWC;
"Goods in transit are goods that are not on shelves–or in shopping baskets.For example, businesses used to the flexibility of finalising quantities of fresh food, barely hours before dispatch will have to do more planning, further ahead, taking on more risk.No retailer will want to be understocked.That might mean them buying more than they need, leading to the potential need to offer more discounting."

We had a couple of days of deep snow round here last year and it was a full week after it melted before the supermarkets were stocked again. In that time there was absolutely no fresh fruit and veg, no bread, no milk, very little frozen veg, no uht milk. Imagine how much worse it might be if we leave without a deal and nobody knows what the import rules are? For items that come from abroad it's definitely going to be an issue.

Waitrose saw profits fall 18% as the supermarket chain was faced with higher costs, "very few" of which were passed on to shoppers, it said."

Right, so not passing on costs leads to falling profits (as I suggested). Lovely, every savvy business will be signing up.

“However, if it is a sustained increase in costs, then it will have to ripple through into retail prices."

Exactly.

EssentialHummus
You doubted that retailers/wholesalers/suppliers etc. absorb costs - they do - frequently.

Right, so not passing on costs leads to falling profits (as I suggested).Lovely, every savvy business will be signing up.

Isn't that how retailers such as Amazon/Aldi/Lidl do so well - with tight profit margins? Works for some.

“However, if it is a sustained increase in costs, then it will have to ripple through into retail prices." Exactly.

Absorbing a 10% increase in costs is pretty good news for the consumer in the short term.

So summary of current state of affairs is - if you are xyz (e.g. Domino's) then do stockpile XYZ because it's sensible/reasonable/patriotic; if you are pqr (e.g. Remoaner) then don't stockpile PQR because scaremongering/fiiiiiiinnnnee/talkingBritaindown; in any case do ignore/swallow price rises and profit reductions because the People's Willy was for price rises and profit reductions... wait, what?

Yes, and you’ve helpfully found me a quote suggesting that a sustained cost increase will be passed on to consumers. As the rest of us already thought. I think the term is “own goal”?

This thread is about whether it is sensible, or not, to have a buffer, yes? We have concluded that there is at least a possibility of price rises and/or shortages. @Clavinova, can you confirm whether you believe that to have a stash is, to quote OP, 'fucking mad'?
Because all your arguments seem to be to that end.
There are threads elsewhere that discuss what people think Brexit might look like.