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Brexit

Why do people here have a stash for Brexit?

715 replies

ssd · 30/07/2019 12:53

I can see the point if it's medicines or medical supplies, but I've seen a few threads here where people are stashing tuna, toilet rolls and sweets!?

Are you all fucking mad?

I'm a total remainder but come on, I know it'll be shit but you'll still find asda and tesco will be open

OP posts:
Thread gallery
7
Parker231 · 15/08/2019 17:03

Look what we have to look forward to

www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/business-49353220

bellinisurge · 15/08/2019 17:35

"We are not going to starve" - that's a great slogan for the side of a bus .Grin
Given that people were whining on here @Mamamia456 about there not being enough ice lollies in the supermarkets during the heatwave (and ice cubes ffs), I think the bar of what's ok and what isn't is quite high.

Havanananana · 15/08/2019 18:22

Why would the Government even need to think about rationing food, the ports in France are putting plans in place as are our ports.

But the Government is already thinking about rationing - or at least about how to ensure that food and medicines are fairly distributed. At the moment they are talking about voluntary rationing - e.g. supermarkets limiting the quantity that can be bought – but that doesn’t work if the public begins to panic, or when some chancers decide that they can buy what they want and that the little security guard at the supermarket is not going to stop them. Otherwise there is rationing by price (you can only buy if you can afford the new, higher prices) or finally formal rationing through books, coupons or plastic cards and ID.

The French Customs worked-to-rule in March in protest at the inadequate Brexit preparations. The queues stretched back for over 30km and took days to clear. Note that these were the current 'rules' - after Brexit a whole raft of new and unfamiliar rules will be applied, severely delaying traffic. The UK haulage industry also believes that facilities on both sides of the Channel are ill-prepared to cope with Brexit.

There may be some disruption to begin with and there may be some temporary shortages of certain products…

‘Temporary shortages of certain products’ will become the new normal. Brexit is not an isolated incident like a heavy snowfall, where the shops can re-stock in a day or two. Brexit will mean ongoing shortages for the next few months, if not years, while the UK renegotiates hundreds of trade deals. [Unless the plan all along has been to flood the UK with low-quality food from the USA].

In addition, the UK food industry is highly dependent on labour from the EU to pick, process, pack and distribute food produced in the UK. 90% of the vets in the food industry are from other EU countries. If these workers begin to encounter a hostile environment (e.g. they can no longer access healthcare) they are not going to stick around very long. They can move to other EU countries where wages are increasing in comparison to the falling UK Pound.

I do wish people would stop catastrophising

If those expressing concern are wrong, nobody will suffer any ill-effects and we’ll all rejoice, albeit with a large slice of humble pie. But if those concerns prove to be justified everyone will suffer, including those who have been fantasising about the benefits of Brexit for the last 3 years.

We are not going to starve

Perhaps not – although there are already millions in the UK who struggle with food poverty, and a rise in prices coupled is not going to make these numbers smaller. Anyway, here’s a picture of what rations looked like last time. These are the rations for a week – little more than some people currently consume in a day. People didn’t starve to death, but they were often hungry and malnourished. Read Eric Sykes’ autobiography for a vivid description of life in London after the war when he literally didn’t have the money for a crust of bread.

Why do people here have a stash for Brexit?
Mistigri · 15/08/2019 18:41

@Mamamia456 this, from the horses mouth, is what the French authorities are putting in place. Every single U.K. consignment of food, plants and livestock will need to go via a border inspection post and will require a physical document check. Many consignments will require other checks too.

So yes, they are ready. To check lots of lorries that don't get checked now. This will reduce cross channel capacity by a minimum of 40%, more if non-compliant consignments are not prevented from reaching Dover.

Why do people here have a stash for Brexit?
Mamamia456 · 15/08/2019 19:19

Havana - Give over, we're not in 1939 just about to go to war. Do you know how much food households waste each year in the UK? Food that could have been eaten? In 2015 it was £13 billion. So no I don't think people will starve.

bellinisurge · 15/08/2019 19:26

@Mamamia456 you tell those posters freaking out about no ice lollies and no ice cubes a couple of weeks ago. It's not about starvation it's about expectations. And they appear higher than expecting cheap turnips in November.

AuldAlliance · 15/08/2019 19:28

Mamamia
That argument is rather disingenuous.

It is based on the supposition that those tons of food that are wasted each year neatly correlate to the amount of food that won't be imported post-No Deal.
If lorries can't get through the Channel ports in time to deliver food throughout the UK before it starts to go bad, because of the extra paperwork, there is no arithmetic guarantee that the quantity that will be blocked/destroyed won't be missed by UK consumers because it corresponds to what they usually waste.

It's a bit like the argument that Brexit will lower obesity levels, when a lot of obesity is caused by malnutrition and lack of access to good quality, healthy food, rather than simply by overeating food imported from the EU.
If food cannot get to the UK malnourished will be more malnourished and possibly hungry. People won't suddenly all be slim and healthy because they are eating British turnips and mutton.

Havanananana · 15/08/2019 19:43

Mamamia - Have you not heard Johnson's constant rhetoric about 'terrible collaboration,' his references to trade wars, to Churchill and the Dunkirk spirit? What about Remainers being a fifth column, enemies of the people etc. It has been a constant theme throughout the Brexit campaign. I think that there are many in the Brexit camp who believe that the UK is about to go to war, even if it is just a trade war, although I fear for the civil war that might well re-ignite in Northern Ireland.

Anyway, nobody here has seriously spoken about 'starving' - the discussion is about whether or not it is sensible to mitigate the possible shortages that Brexit might cause. I believe that those who don't think that shortages can possibly occur are either not old enough to have experienced food rationing (which lasted for 9 years after the end of the war), don't remember when electricity was rationed (1974) or when there were shortages of bread, sugar and fuel - or they simply don't understand how fragile the UK's supply chain for food, medicines and other essentials really is.

AutumnCrow · 15/08/2019 20:17

I spent a large part of the day, aided and abetted by both OH and adult DS, trying to obtain my prescription HRT. Unsuccessfully.

They are both Shock that this is happening to me.

I said, this is just a foretaste of what is to come.

We got a lead on a pharmacy that has something similar in stock - but they said I have to go back to the GP for a new prescription. By that time, the pharmacy say they might have run out anyway. So that's tomorrow booked up with chasing around after GP surgery time and the pharmacy treasure hunt.

I SHOULD be working.

This isn't a 'social' drug for me. It is medically necessary after major surgery.

THIS is what shortages look like on the ground.

Parker231 · 15/08/2019 20:50

People need to read up about the JiT food supply chain and the issues we’ll be facing post Brexit, particularly if there is a no deal Brexit. Brexit on 31 October is one of the worst times of the year as then the UK is heavily reliant upon imported fruit and vegetables and there is very limited warehousing available for items with a longer shelf life.

MidnightMystery · 15/08/2019 21:38

I think it's a great idea! Nothing will go to waste and it's better to have than not!

Clavinova · 16/08/2019 00:05

According to The Times, Sainsbury’s has begun drawing up plans to restrict the quantities of some goods that can be ordered online in an effort to stop consumers stockpiling.The plans have been decided amid claims that supermarkets’ food stocks could be depleted within just four days—with shoppers facing almost empty shelves within five days of a no-deal Brexit.

The article is behind a paywall - I can't access all of it. However it was written in March - at that point the major supermarkets were still relying on information that freight trade through Dover could be reduced by up to 87% (they quoted this statistic in their letter to Theresa May) - we now know that possible delays could be half that, or less - no one knows.Tinned goods/frozen produce is not going to run out within days.The UK is self sufficient in liquid milk so the ration photo above is misleading. Also, we don't know what contingency plans wholesalers and retailers have made - how many have changed their supply routes to avoid Dover, how many have stockpiled? The Real Olive Company has stockpiled 6 months worth of olives for Waitrose and Ocado customers (plus one other unnamed supermarket).

The French Customs worked-to-rule in March in protest at the inadequate Brexit preparations.The queues stretched back for over 30km and took days to clear.Note that these were the current 'rules' - after Brexit a whole raft of new and unfamiliar rules will be applied, severely delaying traffic.

Were French customs officials just being difficult though?

"The head of French customs, Rodolphe Gintz, said he was astonished by the "work-to-rule strike", which he was adamant had nothing to do with Brexit."They're targeting lorries that are leaving for the UK even though it's the country of destination that carries out the checks."

"Budget minister Gérald Darmanin said France was prepared and he insisted there would not be a "bottleneck of the century".

"The British government has also sought to allay fears, promising that lorries coming into the UK will be able to drive straight off ferries and Channel Tunnel trains by filling in a frontier declaration beforehand."

www.bbc.co.uk/news/47454150

Havanananana · 16/08/2019 05:46

Even a 40% reduction in cross0Channel capacity would have a severe impact on the goods coming to the UK. Someone would have to decide which goods to prioritise. If medicines are prioritised, then less food and fewer industrial components get through. If food is prioritised, less medicine and fewer car parts get through. Someone somewhere would suffer shortages.

Stockpiles are limited by the warehouse capacity available. A supermarket holds about 10 days of stock at most, so to hold even 3 months worth of stock somewhere else would require additional warehouse space equivalent to almost 10 times the areas of all of the supermarkets in the UK - spare capacity that just doesn't exist. In this respect, if households begin to stockpile they actually help alleviate the situation - 30 million households each stockpiling half a cubic metre of goods reduces the warehousing requirement by 15m cubic metres.

Customs checks - it doesn't matter who or where the checks take place, even a one-minute delay per truck results in miles of tailbacks. The government's claim that lorries will just drive off the ferries as now is nonsense - unless they plan to use the same non-existent magic technology that Johnson claims can be used at the RoI-NI border, every truck will need to be stopped. Otherwise the UK has not taken back control of its borders.

Clavinova · 16/08/2019 09:35

Havanananana

I will have to be fairly brief - not much time this morning.

Someone would have to decide which goods to prioritise.

The government have already said that prescription medicines, medical devices and infant baby formula will be imported via 7 alternative ports to Dover. Also, I can't see that their recent freight tender mentions anything about food - I wonder if some of the newspapers have just made an assumption.

On the car industry thread, the SMMT (Society of Motor Manufacturers) refer to a survey of their membership - amongst the bad news they say that many of their members have switched suppliers and routes away from Dover.

A few days ago, the boss of NEXT, " told the BBC Radio 4 Today programme that the UK was close to being well prepared, pointing to simplified customs and border procedures.Next has moved all its imports and exports out of Calais to other ports."

"Wolfson, a prominent Vote Leave supporter, had previously warned that no deal would lead to “chaos and disorder”, with lengthy queues at ports and higher prices in shops, but he said new measures now introduced had changed the outlook."

“We are a long way from gridlock and chaos; the fact that HMRC have introduced these transition measures will make an enormous difference,” he said.“The encouraging thing is that we are rapidly moving from the gridlock and chaos camp into the well-prepared camp.”

"He added: “I should stress that I would much prefer a deal to no deal, but I am much less frightened of no deal if the government is well prepared, and we’ve got every indication that they are now taking that seriously.”

www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/aug/13/uk-a-long-way-from-gridlock-and-chaos-in-event-no-deal-brexit-lord-wolfson

We don't yet know how well the transitional simplified customs procedure will work - diagram link below;

"In order to mitigate the risk of disruption at UK Ports following a “No Deal” or hard Brexit, HMRC has devised a new procedure – TSP (Transitional Simplified Process)."

"In the event that the UK leaves the EU on 29th March 2019, TSP will come into effect and be in place until July 2020."

HMRC will give 12 months notice of the TSP ending;

www.hicargo.com/alerts/a-guide-to-tsp-transitional-simplified-procedures/

Clavinova · 16/08/2019 09:36

Not that brief. Grin

jasjas1973 · 16/08/2019 10:12

Wolfson is a well spoken Tim Martin, no-deal doesn't affect him, he really doesn't care.
TSP was around long before March 29th, yet Wolfson either didn't know (worrying) or thought it wouldn't work, no other explanation.

His change of mind is much like that of Jo Johnson, Rudd or Hancocks, they all change their minds to suit their political view not because the facts have altered...much like yourself Clav !

Mamamia456 · 16/08/2019 12:12

The President of the French Ports has said that there is a lot of scaremongering about Brexit. He said that the British authorities have done a lot of preparation so that we will be ready for 31st October. I'm sure that he knows more about what's going on than any of us on here.

bellinisurge · 16/08/2019 12:34

@Mamamia456 unless I missed something, The President of the French Ports is not responsible for my household and I will make my own judgements based on what is going on around me. I will also factor in the whining I saw on here a couple of weeks ago about supermarkets running out of ice lollies in the heatwave. Which frankly shocked me. I thought we were better able to deal with unexpected hiccups in shops than that.

Mistigri · 16/08/2019 12:42

The President of the French Ports has said that there is a lot of scaremongering about Brexit. He said that the British authorities have done a lot of preparation so that we will be ready for 31st October. I'm sure that he knows more about what's going on than any of us on here.

I posted the French government official advice yesterday, which you conveniently ignored.

Tl;dr - a lot of checks and paperwork that aren't required now.

Mamamia456 · 16/08/2019 13:08

Mistigri - But the paperwork and any form filling won't be done at the port by the lorry driver, that will have all been sorted out beforehand before the lorry driver sets off. He will show his paperwork at customs like he always has and be waved through like now. As long as the companies know the relevant forms that they need to fill in there shouldn't be a problem. Companies are preparing now.

Mamamia456 · 16/08/2019 13:15

Bellingsurge - I have never said to you don't stockpile if that's what you want to do. I am replying to those who think that food shortages will become a normal thing for years to come because of Brexit. Yes there may well be food shortages in the future but that will be due to over population and climate change.

bellinisurge · 16/08/2019 13:25

@Mamamia456 - not seen oodles of posters saying that. But if you want to kid yourself that this is why people are putting extra aside, knock yourself out. Makes no difference to me because I don't need to worry about going to the supermarket if things get tricky, temporarily or otherwise. We can hunker down with our treats -play board games or binge watch shit on TV. There's food for our meals, stuff to drink. Whatever.

jasjas1973 · 16/08/2019 13:39

The Road Haulage Association don't share Manamia's calvalier approach, in a letter dated 30/7/19 they wrote to M.Gove that they nor the Govt are ready.

He urged Mr Gove to press government departments to:

Produce clear guidance on how the whole end-to-end journey will operate
Open and authorise new and substantial customs facilities for transit
Introduce consolidated and simplified import safety & security declaration system
Launch emergency and free online customs training for traders
Make lorry holding facilities such as Operation Brock fit for purpose

Not very inspiring with just a few weeks to go is it?

Lets hope life saving medication gets through with no delays....for your sake, fortunately for my family, arrangements have been made to obtain the medication privately, at significant cost but as they say "once bitten, twice ready"

Mamamia456 · 16/08/2019 13:41

Bellingsurge - Why are you twisting what I say. I don't think there will be food shortages for years to come because of Brexit, like some remainers do.

If you want to stockpile because you're worried about Brexit go ahead.

I think there will be food shortages in 10, 20, 30 years time, due to world over population and climate change. I know that's not why people are stock piling, I know that people are stock piling because of Brexit. Bloody hell!

Hope that's clearer.

Socksontheradiator · 16/08/2019 13:46

@jasjas, I am so relieved to hear that your niece has been able to get her medication Flowers
@AutumnCrow, I'm sorry that getting your medication is so difficult :(
Let us all hope that it is all going to be as simple as Mama and Clad believe.
Personally I am hoping that all the work that is going on around stopping no deal is successful, and that we'll never know for sure what ND would have looked like