Westminstenders: Prime Minister Johnson

[RedToothBrush]

It is actually happening.

By 5pm tomorrow Johnson should be Prime Minister, if nothing major goes wrong for him.

Phillip Hammond is expected to resign early in the morning. And there maybe others.

Parliament goes into recess on Thursday. Giving Johnson only enough time to announce a Cabinet and maybe give a brief statement in Parliament.

As it stands Johnson will have an effective majority of 1 if the Brecon by-election goes the way expected next week.

Unless someone else defects. Which isn't beyond the realms of possibility.

We also have Charlie Elphicke now suspended and facing a court appearance on 6th September, just 3 days after Parliament returns after the summer recess.

Remember when parliament returns Johnson must get a Queen's Speech vote to pass to start the new session.

The return of Parliament is 8 weeks before 31st October.

If Johnson can't pass a Queen's Speech... Is there time for a GE before 31st October? By the skin of our teeth? Or a crucial recall petition?

So for all the talk that parliament can we prevented from being prorogued or that we can get a deal by the 31st October, there is a GE shaped problem.

As for Johnson's plan for Brexit. Don't expect to see him say anything but waffly bollocks before that key Queens Speech vote. He can't. Instead expect lots of domestic promises - in part to distract, in part in prep for a possible snap election.

Of course to have an extension the Prime Minister needs to ask for it. Would a GE be enough to get one? And would we be granted one?

On the flip to that is the prospect of May's Deal. Much has been made of its death. But some have said its premature to say that. At the eleventh hour should the situation arise would parliament vote for it, backstop and all, to prevent no deal? Its not beyond the realms of possibility.

All the talk of Johnson driving a change of direction by the force of personality is nonsense. Johnson can use his personality domestically for support, but he his personality offers nothing to the EU.

On top of this all we have the Iran Oil Tanker Crisis. The US were alleged to have set us up, and now told us to look after our own tankers. Leaving us to look to Europe for international security cooperation in the area... Irony isn't lost.

Let us see what tomorrow might bring though...

What happened to LeClerc ? Has she been banned?

I am attempting to maintain a Zen like indifference to them unless they post anything meaningful which they haven't yet wink

Ditto. Content to read and ignore unless owt sensible is said.

The educated middle class are precisely the ones who can escape, if they wish

• Germany and several other wealthy EU countries are already encouraging the brain drain

and of course countries outside the EU

FOM enabled anyone, wc or mc, who was out of luck in the Uk, but could be self-supporting, to take advantage of a much wider job market in the EU
(e.g. as in "Auf Wiedersehen, Pet" !)

Now, it'll be the E27 countries picking who they want - which will be skewed towards scientists, engineers etc

Leclerc (i think) decided to take a step back due to trolls being annoying. Dont blame him!

@LonelyTiredandLow ‘tis has decided to step back to help with his blood pressure is the official stance. But I’m guessing he got banned and has returned as ‘a lurker of three years’ called joannacuppa.

What happened to LeClerc ? Has she been banned?

As far as I know, he (for he it was) is taking a self-imposed break for the sake of his mental health. As we all do occasionally. Still think he's reading, though

@Coppersulphate, what exactly gives you so much optimism?

The educated middle class are precisely the ones who can escape, if they wish

Until 31 October, anyway. After that unless they have an EU passport and/or a skill which is cannot be found elsewhere in the EEA (highly unlikely with around 30 countries to choose from), the doors slam shut. I guess they may be able to emigrate to places like Australia if they have a profession that is on the desired list.

It all depends on whether all those Tory MPs who have been culled from ministerial posts, or risk deselection by their local parties,

will find their backbone and realise they have only those 4 days in September to stop No Deal

BJ is betting they will continue to chicken out and that they will dither until No Deal is certain - when it will be too late to stop

He is probably right

It's definitely one of those situations where you have to let the shit hit the fan. LD's have NC to early for any useful outcome.

I heard Cummings in Boris' speech if I am honest. The fact BoJo used a script at all is unusual but he must have been warned that jokes would not go down well. There are far too many ego's in this cabinet for there to be anything other than chaos in the longer term.

Has BoE commented at all about where all of the magic money is coming from? None of the cabinet think long-term, so I suspect that is why the purse strings are open; a distraction like a lollipop given to the kid who's tooth has been pulled out.

I think LeClerc will have been banned because several of her posts were removed by MNHQ. They were abusive. I have reported them for abusive language.
But I am guessing because, obviously, I don't know.
I disagree with many of the posters on here but I try to remain civil and polite.
LeClerc didn't.

it would only take a handful of Tories to declare independence and resign the whip for the Government to lose its majority.

Past performance suggests this isn't going to happen.

Worth remembering what happened to the "moderate" Nazi party members that minimised the extremist noises coming from the party to the more aware public after Hitlers enabling act. They either had a Damscene conversion to gas chambers, or found themselves in a gas chamber. There's a phrase "We'll push Hitler so far into a corner he'll squeak" (I recall the phrase, but not the author ...)

Tory voters will never vote Lib Dems, they put their own assets and property and prosperity first, and foremost.

(I'm late to the proving wrong party, but...) have you not heard of Michael Heseltine?

Past performance suggests this isn't going to happen.

That is true, but they are going to be deselected anyway, many of them after being decent enough MPs, so they might as well go for it.

Yeah I couldn't see 1tis being banned. Not amazed people need to step back. Feel like I'm watching it all through a dream tbh. I've no hope at all for this country, just have to imagine I can buffer the worst for dd.

Ironically it is largely because of the land my DF refuses to leave the country. So I suspect there are a fair few land owners who feel trapped and angry towards the direction the ERG have taken the Tories in. Indirectly it is what is keeping dd and myself here; he is our only family left. My friends however (mainly those with STEM/medical/teaching backgrounds) have been leaving steadily since the referendum and have resettled all over EU - 7 families so far and 3 who are struggling to sell their homes but will be of before 31st October. To say I am jealous is an understatement; especially when they can send laughing emoji's about BoJo, safe in the knowledge it won't affect them any more and they have found a happy life after Brexit. I have no idea what the future holds for us but I am preparing for the worst because no realistic and thought through positives have been given for Brexit.

I'm explaining this largely for the apparently 'new' influx of leave posters. Background is important on these threads and assuming either side are one type or another (other than authoritarian which has been proven to be a more Leaver trait) is naive. Am concerned anyone watched BoJo's speech and thought he was positive? He listed all of the stuff that has been made shit by the Tories for the last 10 years then blamed half of the country for not "seeing positives"

It all depends on whether all those Tory MPs who have been culled from ministerial posts, or risk deselection by their local parties, will find their backbone and realise they have only those 4 days in September to stop No Deal

It doesn’t need many to find a backbone. Ken Clarke is retirement age and I’m sure a few others are getting towards the end of their careers. Might want to go out with a bang rather than a wimper as we slide into the chasm of doom

probs Wrong

I'm a scientist living & working in Germany and have contacts in the Netherlands, Sweden, France ....

These countries are eager for skilled professionals and have been recruiting for several years outside the EU in India, China, South Korea
Germany has tax concessions for this

After Brexit, the Uk will be added to this potential work pool of non-EU countries

It's not that difficult to get a job, whether in the E27 or other western countries
The main issues are being self-supporting and having savings to tide you over - v mc,
having skills
and making the decision to leave your Uk life behind: elderly parents, changing schools etc

The door may close for the unskilled and semi-skilled,
but even there, demographics means Europe has a shortage of youngish fit workers

oh and being mc enough to have private health insurance can be very important if you have pre-existing conditions,
or are middle-aged

That is true, but they are going to be deselected anyway, many of them after being decent enough MPs, so they might as well go for it.

Pastor Neimoller springs to mind

Lots of shiny new pro Brexit posters on here - interesting.

I hope LeClerc is chuckling at them as he sips a glass of something cold.

BigChoc

There may be a few areas where immigration from outside the EEA is needed, in the same way that the UK currently has limited exceptions for non-EEA (which many people think too limited). But ultimately if an EU employer has the choice between similarly qualified UK citizens and EEA citizen, they will take the EEA citizen. There's no point having to jump through hoops for non-EEA citizens.

And you assume British education is good enough to produce skills that EEA countries want. The bleating of UK employers about graduates not having the skills they want suggests not.

I think British youngsters will largely be trapped here, and I think that is exactly what some of the Tory Brexiteers want. If you can't move away you are stuck in the UK with crap employment rights.

Pastor Neimoller springs to mind

Well I for one have spoken out and I am glad.

LouiseCollins am a bit behind today and just ready your reply to my question. Thank you that was thorough and informative. Heading back to catch up on the rest of the thread now.

Delurking...

I know several doctors and nurses who have immigrated already to Australia and to the US.

We are staying in the UK as a family but we will be applying for German citizenship for our children.

Our local hospital is now actively recruiting nurses in the Middle East (hiring the Indian and Filipino nurses who work there).

Please don't say that we have to train more nurses because we don't. The loss of bursary created a negative effect in recruitment and retention.

I think LeClerc will have been banned because several of her posts were removed by MNHQ. They were abusive. I have reported them for abusive language.

Ah, right, I see now. Thanks for clearing that up.