Westminstenders: Prime Minister Johnson

[RedToothBrush]

It is actually happening.

By 5pm tomorrow Johnson should be Prime Minister, if nothing major goes wrong for him.

Phillip Hammond is expected to resign early in the morning. And there maybe others.

Parliament goes into recess on Thursday. Giving Johnson only enough time to announce a Cabinet and maybe give a brief statement in Parliament.

As it stands Johnson will have an effective majority of 1 if the Brecon by-election goes the way expected next week.

Unless someone else defects. Which isn't beyond the realms of possibility.

We also have Charlie Elphicke now suspended and facing a court appearance on 6th September, just 3 days after Parliament returns after the summer recess.

Remember when parliament returns Johnson must get a Queen's Speech vote to pass to start the new session.

The return of Parliament is 8 weeks before 31st October.

If Johnson can't pass a Queen's Speech... Is there time for a GE before 31st October? By the skin of our teeth? Or a crucial recall petition?

So for all the talk that parliament can we prevented from being prorogued or that we can get a deal by the 31st October, there is a GE shaped problem.

As for Johnson's plan for Brexit. Don't expect to see him say anything but waffly bollocks before that key Queens Speech vote. He can't. Instead expect lots of domestic promises - in part to distract, in part in prep for a possible snap election.

Of course to have an extension the Prime Minister needs to ask for it. Would a GE be enough to get one? And would we be granted one?

On the flip to that is the prospect of May's Deal. Much has been made of its death. But some have said its premature to say that. At the eleventh hour should the situation arise would parliament vote for it, backstop and all, to prevent no deal? Its not beyond the realms of possibility.

All the talk of Johnson driving a change of direction by the force of personality is nonsense. Johnson can use his personality domestically for support, but he his personality offers nothing to the EU.

On top of this all we have the Iran Oil Tanker Crisis. The US were alleged to have set us up, and now told us to look after our own tankers. Leaving us to look to Europe for international security cooperation in the area... Irony isn't lost.

Let us see what tomorrow might bring though...

I'm not going to be able to watch BJ at the Despatch Box

Even though I have a sufficiently wide vocabulary to understand all the long words he throws in (although good communication, I was taught, was not using a long word if a shorter one would serve the purpose ), I'm not going to be able to thole his speech pattern with all those rising intonations

prettybird my Dad would describe himself as a gut instinct unionist, voted No in the last IndyRef and Remain in the EURef. He has already said that if the GFA goes he will vote Yes in any future IndyRef.

Even my FiL, who is a habitual Tory voter has started voting LibDem as he is also a Remainer...

I don't understand people saying there won't be enough time for a GE. We would ask for an extension if that was the case.

The Brexiters are definitely rattled, judging by this thread

Yes, it;s funny isn't it? They only come here in force when things are going badly for them. The hard right brexit cabinet of their wet dreams has just come to power - and yet here they are. They must be really fucking scared of just how many people hate Boris- and how much they hate him - to be crapping this Boris fellating word salad of wank all over the thread.

They really ought to save their own time. It never works and we all know what they're doing.

I don't understand people saying there won't be enough time for a GE. We would ask for an extension if that was the case.

Because it's fat bastard Boris who will have to do the asking. And he isn't gonna ask.

I don't understand people saying there won't be enough time for a GE. We would ask for an extension if that was the case.

Just because we've asked for one doesn't mean we'll get it. the heads of all the other EU27 are getting more and more hostile to the uk wasting its time so trying to get a GE before we leave on a default no deal seems like a better idea

Bigger issue for me with that is, what does a GE solve? Granted we could get a change of government by virtue of Labour winning outright but consider the more likely outcomes than either the Conservatives or Labour winning a majority.

Say Labour are the largest party but would likely need the Lib Dems or the SNP cooperation to govern.

The Lib Dem "price" for cooperation is now known, i.e. dump Corbyn, and i'd suggest that the SNPs is too (Prettybird you'll know way more than me on this!) so would you agree that the SNP "price" will be IndyRef2?

If Labour aren't largest party and the Conservatives are, we've held a GE only to be in the exact same position as before.

The EU did say they would likely extend in that kind of circumstance.

Yeh we would rely on Boris asking and if he wasn't intending to we could then have a vonc and then we can ask

Lib dem + Labour could then be a PV and then hope we revoke!

Fintan O'Toole has just such a wonderful way with words: this article about BJ would be excoriating if it was something we didn't know already , but as he points out, Johnson cannot disillusion anyone, for no one is under any illusion that he is truthful or trustworthy, honourable or earnest. The Emperor has no clothes and he was elected by Conservative members who know that.

www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jul/25/boris-johnson-bluffing-stage-managed

LouiseCollins28 - yes, I've already said that the SNP's price for any cooperation would be the Section 30 notice for Indyref2. But you've given me an idea - they might also demand Corbyn's removal as leader.

I agree with louise that a GE wouldn't necessarily be that helpful in helping to move Brexit forward because the Brexit fault lines are not the same as party lines.
I think making huge constitutional changes without a majority isn't sensible for the long term future of the UK either.
Ideally I would like to see some kind of cross party commission or a PV on the deal BJ agrees, or revoke.
But I cannot imagine we will get anything approaching common sense out of the current government.

they might also demand Corbyn's removal as leader

Up to the membership nothing the PLP can do about it tbh, the only way he isnt leader is if he loses his seat in a GE but with a 34,000 majority its not going to be easy

So Corbyn won't work with SNP (Nicola or no Nicola) but Nicola/SNP is open to working with him/labour to stop hard brexit. Swinson won't work with Corb but will work with labour if they have a new leader.

Jo and Jeremy have May-red-lines-itus syndrome.

I don't know the SNP/lib dems jo/Nicola combos...

Nicola Sturgeon seems keen to avoid May-red-lines-itus syndrome and I can't see her demanding Corb is removed.

@prettybird I'm not rattled, quite the contrary.

To be honest Hazard - neither do I, as Nicola would see it as part of Labour's democratic process, so she would just thole it.

It would just be nice if she could deal with a competent leader . Ds was saying just yesterday that there is only one competent political leader in the UK (and no, it's very definitely not Boris ) - which is an indictment of our political system

Even in the darkest of times

Tory voters will never vote Lib Dems, they put their own assets and property and prosperity first, and foremost.

The Local elections showed that not to be the case. Where I am it's usually a contest between Tory and Lib Dem, with maybe a hundred votes separating the winning candidates from the losing ones. This time the Tories were given an absolute thrashing with quite often 600-800 majorities for the LibDem candidates. Once councillor gained a 998 majority.

If Labour aren't largest party and the Conservatives are, we've held a GE only to be in the exact same position as before.

This would very much depend on how short the Tories were of a majority - if they lose the thirteen Scottish MPs but the rest stays exactly the same, then were would they turn for their C & S votes? The DUP won't be able to prop them up.

Nicola Sturgeon does seem to be the only one with any sense.
For those who are not rattled, the rest of us can only hope that you are right.
It's just such a shame we have lost leclerc as I really value his wise and intelligent contribution.
Grateful to the reasoned discussion on these thread and delighted that the regulars are not being derailed.

Urbanlife my dad has been a lifelong Tory voter - did PPE. He hasn't voted for them since the referendum. He says they are now UKIP lite. He comes from a very long line of Tory voters and has land. He doesn't want Corbyn but he don't want Brexit either and the latter is more urgent.

I'm interested that "the purse strings are open" - I take this to mean they are raiding the kitty the BoE was going to use as a buffer for the fall in sterling? 39bn doesn't cover what is needed to replace the last 10 years of austerity across every sector and Grayling's butter fingers

What did I miss with 1tis? I'm trying to keep dd entertained out of the garden and have been away for 2 days...

I too know ex-Tories who now call the party BlueKIP. What they now stand for is abhorrent to them, and they will vote LibDem or abstain.

I am not rattled.
I am delighted. I think his speech today was really optimistic.
About time we had a real leader.

I personally think that cabinet cull yesterday was playing with fire. There is now going to be a lot of sustained and skilled opposition from the Tory backbenches. There is also the nuclear option - it would only take a handful of Tories to declare independence and resign the whip for the Government to lose its majority.

Interesting times....

Socks - I try to ignore most of them .

LouiseCollins28 at least posts intelligent and more nuanced contributions - even if I usually disagree with her

If I start posting pictures of my garden again, then you'll know that they are irritating me - but I am attempting to maintain a Zen like indifference to them unless they post anything meaningful which they haven't yet