Westminstenders: Prime Minister Johnson

[RedToothBrush]

It is actually happening.

By 5pm tomorrow Johnson should be Prime Minister, if nothing major goes wrong for him.

Phillip Hammond is expected to resign early in the morning. And there maybe others.

Parliament goes into recess on Thursday. Giving Johnson only enough time to announce a Cabinet and maybe give a brief statement in Parliament.

As it stands Johnson will have an effective majority of 1 if the Brecon by-election goes the way expected next week.

Unless someone else defects. Which isn't beyond the realms of possibility.

We also have Charlie Elphicke now suspended and facing a court appearance on 6th September, just 3 days after Parliament returns after the summer recess.

Remember when parliament returns Johnson must get a Queen's Speech vote to pass to start the new session.

The return of Parliament is 8 weeks before 31st October.

If Johnson can't pass a Queen's Speech... Is there time for a GE before 31st October? By the skin of our teeth? Or a crucial recall petition?

So for all the talk that parliament can we prevented from being prorogued or that we can get a deal by the 31st October, there is a GE shaped problem.

As for Johnson's plan for Brexit. Don't expect to see him say anything but waffly bollocks before that key Queens Speech vote. He can't. Instead expect lots of domestic promises - in part to distract, in part in prep for a possible snap election.

Of course to have an extension the Prime Minister needs to ask for it. Would a GE be enough to get one? And would we be granted one?

On the flip to that is the prospect of May's Deal. Much has been made of its death. But some have said its premature to say that. At the eleventh hour should the situation arise would parliament vote for it, backstop and all, to prevent no deal? Its not beyond the realms of possibility.

All the talk of Johnson driving a change of direction by the force of personality is nonsense. Johnson can use his personality domestically for support, but he his personality offers nothing to the EU.

On top of this all we have the Iran Oil Tanker Crisis. The US were alleged to have set us up, and now told us to look after our own tankers. Leaving us to look to Europe for international security cooperation in the area... Irony isn't lost.

Let us see what tomorrow might bring though...

Jo Swinson has tabled a motion of no confidence today I think, but will need the support of Corbyn to pull it off, acc to Laura K she has written to him to ask for that.

It's an early day motion. Which is about as useful as a chocolate teapot on the hottest day of the year.

It's meaningless in effect. And if anything will force a vote which will strengthen Johnson's hand.

It needs to be a proper Vonc not a useless early day motion.

Regarding no deal. Johnson would not surprise me if he actively defied the will of Parliament and deliberately went for it despite votes in the House. Once its done, it can't be challenged, and he's not above breaking the law in my opinion.

It's a trump style tactic, but Johnson only has to do it once to get what he wants.

I'm not sure the courts would have enough clout to do anything meaningful after the fact and the Tory party won't care. At worst it provokes a GE in practice. And having discharged the ref result the Brexit Party no longer has purpose which is great for th

For the Tories.

Sorry posted too soon.

Nick Boles MP@NickBoles

The hard right has taken over the Conservative Party.

Thatcherites, libertarians and No Deal Brexiters control it top to bottom.
Liberal One Nation Conservatives have been ruthlessly culled.

Only a few neutered captives are being kept on as window dressing. 1/

The takeover that started in local constituency parties is now complete.
The Brexit Party has won the war without electing a single MP.

Boris Johnson isn’t our new Prime Minister; Nigel Farage is. 2/
......
Stephen Bush@stephenkb

I’m a liberal Conservative.
I voted Cameron 2015, Remain in 2016, May 2017, Liberal Democrat in the Euros and locals. I live in, IDK, Cheltenham.

What is this reshuffle doing for me?

Nick Boles MP@NickBoles
Telling you to piss off and find a new home, that’s what.

Votes in the House against No Deal are meaningless in practice,
because No Deal happens automatically

Our Parliamentary system does not really enable the HoC to force an unwilling govt to take a specific new action,
only to block something

Voting NC is the only effective weapon they have, especially at this late stage and the long summer recess

Hold your nose and vote LibDem this time. You can always revert to Tory when the right wing have destroyed it and you need to rebuild.

*Urbanlife
*
The fact is Mr Johnson is most likely to put the national interest first and take the country out of the UK.

I presume that was a typo and you meant EU, but what Johnson will actually do is take apart the UK, bit by bit. So your typo is pretty accurate there - Scotland will probably go first, or maybe even NI.

Big choc you can post endlessly running down Johnson, but you can’t avoid the reality that we have a committed brexiteer PM, a committed Brexiteer in the opposition aka as Corbyn, and we are leaving.

You may not like it or agree, but sadly you didnt win the referendum so you will, at some point have to accept the outcome.

By all means move to Frankfurt and then you can enjoy a europhile existence unhindered. Back in the real world the rest of us will get on with the future of this country.

I almost can't wait to see all the Johnson lovers on here get sorely disappointed.
He'll probably bring WA back to Parliament with some new Johnson-y words and shaft your dreams of No Deal.

One thought, the "red lines", they were May's red lines. Could Johnson go to the EU seeking a different kind of deal, e.g. not proposing to end Free Movement?

A second, could this be about building desperation? i.e. we'll make it look like we are going super hard for "No Deal" right from the off not for the EUs eyes but for the eyes of MPs back home. So that when we bring back "Deal Mk2" MPs who fear "No Deal" will be more likely to back it?

A solidly No Deal govt at all levels of appointees
Looks like even MPs will be forced to stand on a No Deal platform, or be deselected

Nick Boles MP@NickBoles

Everyone appointed to the Cabinet today has pledged to stand behind a No Deal Brexit on 31st Oct.

Tomorrow and Friday every junior minister will be required to do the same.

So will every Conservative candidate in an autumn election.

My reply was to Stephen Bush/Nick Boles.

Just to up the ante, I'm feeling that once the UK is out of the EU, then any re-entry is going to be 30-40 years off, if it ever happens. What the EU is will change beyond recognition now it's cut off the lead weight that was the UK.

Whether or not that is a good thing for the EU - it's constituent countries and the rest of the world isn't yet clear.

After we do no-deal (because that is the only way we will leave) there is going to be a herculean effort to ensure that every single area where the EU and UK were converged are made as disparate as possible to head off the dangers of a quick re-entry.

I'm wondering if Boris has already lined up a way of severing Scotland and Northern Ireland to pay for the no-deal he so clearly is going for ?

Appeasement has a long and distinguished track record of being worse than useless. And nice people have a long an sad history of being wrong.

The fact is Mr Johnson is most likely to put the national interest first and take the country out of the UK.

Which country is he taking out of the U.K.? England?

Steven Swinford@steven_swinford
Boris Johnson and Sajid Javid told Cabinet today that ministers should go back to their departments and tell them what they need to be ready for no deal October 31

Ministers said it couldn't be more different in tone to Theresa May and Philip Hammond. The purse strings are open

So will every Conservative candidate in an autumn election.

Have the Tories really forgotten that significant numbers of their voters voted Remain? A lot of normally voting Tory people could never vote for Labour, but they could just manage a LibDem vote. Meanwhile, the Tories are still competing for the Brexit party vote.

urban I am not avoiding reality

I have never said that BJ won't achieve his dreadful No Deal

I refuse to be silenced in expressing my disgust at him and his party

Winning the referendum does not win the right to silence all dissent

btw, I emigrated to Germany literally 2 days after the referendum, because I had my plans in place in case Leave won

I always feared we could end up with No Deal,
with the UK economy going under the cliff and a hard right govt in charge

Strange idea that Germany is not "the real world"

"Fog in the Channel, Europe cut off ? "

Have the Tories really forgotten that significant numbers of their voters voted Remain?

They don't care.

Better to rule in hell than serve in heaven ...

Tory voters will never vote Lib Dems, they put their own assets and property and prosperity first, and foremost.

Labour leavers will defect to Brexit party.
Lib Dem’s will never make it as a major party, so it’s a lost cause.

And who really cares now. Once we have left all Brexit leanings will be null and void.

My erstwhile Tory husband has already voted LidDem @urbanlife. And he’ll do it again.

bloc so you are interfering from Germany. So our politics no longer concern you. I think you have bigger problems with the very real rise of the far right in Germany where you are, than our civilised noisy debate here.

May I suggest you kindly butt out

I don't think you know much about Tory voters @Alsohuman . Who do you think voted for Thatcher?

Have the Tories really forgotten that significant numbers of their voters voted Remain? A lot of normally voting Tory people could never vote for Labour, but they could just manage a LibDem vote.

As I said yesterday, former Tory Councillors here have quit the party and are voting LD.

The demographic in my area absolutely will go like that. The ward is the highest concentration of Tory voters in the constituency but it was 70% Remain. There is also a strong historic LD presence.

There was a local by-election earlier this year, they couldn't get a candidate from the ward, so had to get an outsider to stand. They lost as a result. There has NEVER been a shortage of Tories before.

I think if you look at places like Sale and Altrincham there will be a similar pattern. Parts of Stockport are highly liable to tilt LD again.

There is a LOT of discomfort with the Tory party I'm hearing on the ground from people I know have always voted Tory.

I don't know what will happen at a GE, but it will be more unpredictable than people think.

I am currently watching Johnson's statement. I don't wish to comment....

also of course he did

Urbanlife - I live in the ‘real world’!!!!

I’m a Scot living in England. I see how much hatred BJ has for my country and the nasty nasty things he is said in the past about us.

I see how he is an expert at spreading his lies.

I see the tone of many leavers in England to the Scottish on asocial media.

I see how much we are hated.

And it terrifies me.

And I have to say - I love England and the English people.

Boris Johnson is to blame for much of that. And he’s not even s True Leaver - that’s what sickens me the most