Westminstenders: Prime Minister Johnson

[RedToothBrush]

It is actually happening.

By 5pm tomorrow Johnson should be Prime Minister, if nothing major goes wrong for him.

Phillip Hammond is expected to resign early in the morning. And there maybe others.

Parliament goes into recess on Thursday. Giving Johnson only enough time to announce a Cabinet and maybe give a brief statement in Parliament.

As it stands Johnson will have an effective majority of 1 if the Brecon by-election goes the way expected next week.

Unless someone else defects. Which isn't beyond the realms of possibility.

We also have Charlie Elphicke now suspended and facing a court appearance on 6th September, just 3 days after Parliament returns after the summer recess.

Remember when parliament returns Johnson must get a Queen's Speech vote to pass to start the new session.

The return of Parliament is 8 weeks before 31st October.

If Johnson can't pass a Queen's Speech... Is there time for a GE before 31st October? By the skin of our teeth? Or a crucial recall petition?

So for all the talk that parliament can we prevented from being prorogued or that we can get a deal by the 31st October, there is a GE shaped problem.

As for Johnson's plan for Brexit. Don't expect to see him say anything but waffly bollocks before that key Queens Speech vote. He can't. Instead expect lots of domestic promises - in part to distract, in part in prep for a possible snap election.

Of course to have an extension the Prime Minister needs to ask for it. Would a GE be enough to get one? And would we be granted one?

On the flip to that is the prospect of May's Deal. Much has been made of its death. But some have said its premature to say that. At the eleventh hour should the situation arise would parliament vote for it, backstop and all, to prevent no deal? Its not beyond the realms of possibility.

All the talk of Johnson driving a change of direction by the force of personality is nonsense. Johnson can use his personality domestically for support, but he his personality offers nothing to the EU.

On top of this all we have the Iran Oil Tanker Crisis. The US were alleged to have set us up, and now told us to look after our own tankers. Leaving us to look to Europe for international security cooperation in the area... Irony isn't lost.

Let us see what tomorrow might bring though...

I know quite a lot about the one I’m married to!

I meant to tag @urbanlife there. And ask who they think voted for Thatcher. Spoiler alert: they weren't all landowners from the shires.

Louise BJ could go back to the EU and say he wants a 3rd EEA pillar,
BUT accepting FOM, ECJ etc to make it work legally

They'd probably accept that and the backstop etc could be mutually hidden within the various new treaties this would require

Negotiations for these would take probably 3+ years, even if the Uk govt stops squabbling with itself

BJ is the only politician who might get away with BRINO wrt voters
BUT
I expect the ERG would bring him down immediately, if they even suspect him of planning this

Urban You can't shut down posters

I'll continue to post as much as I want

The UK will never rejoin the EU if it does leave. The only slight possibility is if the clusterfuck is sooooo bad in the first few months that the emergency UK Government begs to rejoin and the EU is magnanimous and allow it to do so (subject to the UK losing some of its "exemptions" )

Scotland may well choose to rejoin (and be welcomed) but FUKD will, well, be fucked - yet because it will all the EU's fault, even as an ever declining non world power without natural resources, it will struggle. On the plus side, if England asks to rejoin, it may be such an economic basket case by that time that it ends up being a net recipient of EU funds

A United Ireland is also increasingly on the cards - and not just because of demographic trends

Traditionally, the Tory party does well when the LDems do poorly and vice versa

This is because there are millions of right of centre swing voters,
who vote Tory for a while,
then swing back to Liberals in protest

• usually when the hard right has been dominant too long in the party

The UK will never rejoin the EU if it does leave.

Well not in it's current form ...

Tory voters will never vote Lib Dems, they put their own assets and property and prosperity first, and foremost.

Nonsense.... My voting record echos that Stephen Bush above, and I will very likely vote LibDem in any autumn General Election, although their Remainer fundamentalism sits uneasily with me.

I was very disappointed when Jo Swinson said the other she’d continue to vote to keep the UK in the EU even if a second referendum voted Leave... It’s neither liberal nor democratic to actively disregard the result of a referendum you have advocated! If she couldn’t stomach supporting a departure from the EU in such circumstances, she (and Caroline Lucas who’s said the same) should just abstain in any such votes.

When Blair led Labour, many of those liberal Tories voted for him rather than Ldems

That's why rightwing Tories (as distinct from the Labour left) hate Blair so much:
he attracted right of centre voters and kept Labour in power 1997 - 2010

Those Tories don't give a shit about Iraq - most Tories supported the war and all except for iirc one Tory MP supported it

And who really cares now. Once we have left all Brexit leanings will be null and void.

@urbanlife - if you actually believe that, then it is you who is not living in the real world. Leaving is the start of a very long, complicated and arduous process of negotiating a new relationship with the EU. Plus how U.K. law evolves in the aftermath of Brexit will very much depend on the “Brexit leanings” of subsequent governments.

Oh, and I am a member of the Conservative Party. I also voted remain. So far this year I have voted Green and LibDem. I have NOT voted Conservative. I would not vote for them in a GE.

We need to deliver on the first ref before we can do anything else.

What would have happened if Remain had “won” the 2016 referendum? Would the UK government have triggered Article 50? Would the UK government have legislated for and passed the EU Withdrawal Act? Would the UK government have negotiated a Withdrawal Agreement and Political Declaration with the EU27?

Tory voters will never vote Lib Dems, they put their own assets and property and prosperity first, and foremost.
This isn't true. My. DH is doing exactly this, I my MIL is for the first time in her life. Some of our friends also are.
They would never vote for Corbyn but a hard Brexit unless you have significant money to gamble on the currency markets isn't good for your assets.

"they put their own assets and property and prosperity first, and foremost."

Those who do so will punish any govt that sends the economy over a cliff
and will take any chance to vote to avoid a No Deal crash

Totally different to the 2008 crisis, which was global:

A Brexit crash would be self-created, entirely the fault of the Tory party

No one underestimates this country, but the country is deeply worried that the new Prime Minister overestimates himself

No deal Brexit, and for the educated middle classes, the 20s that follow will be like the 80s/00s were for the working classes.

1. Dismantle grasp on levers of power and safeguards. For the middle classes this is a legal system that is linked to externally regulated human rights framework, working in (self) regulated professions and access to NHS healthcare & occupational pensions (whether defined benefit or defined contribution) for working classes it was unions, effective enfranchisement and the social security system.

2.Virtually unfettered immigration for those with a certain level of skills/education/capital. This will have a depressive effect on middle class incomes & opportunities, amidst more competition for resources like housing, education (so rising house prices, more competition for decent state schools/rising costs of private education). So all the problems working class people had with stagnating wages and rising rents/property prices in the 00s will take place in the mid-income level for the next decade anyway.

Look at what’s happened in the US over the last 20 and especially 10 years. Number of middle class people has gone down, number of upper class (defined in the US as $900k + pa household) has gone up.

This has always been the point. It’s Social Darwinism.

There is hope with Boris and his Brexiteer cabinet, the country voted leave and leave it shall be.

@JustAnotherPoster00 I'm not worried.

Ian Blackford doing Corbyn’s job again.

I was speaking with an old fashioned Scottish Conservative and Unionist member at Hogmanay. He is currently working in Paris but will be retiring shortly back to Scotland (said that Paris was no place for a single non-family, even if he spoke fluent French).

It pained him greatly but as a "one nation" Tory, he said he could no longer countenance voting for the Conservatives and that should Scotland be taken out of the EU, would be voting Yes in a future Indyref. He'd never thought he would say that

This was before BJ as PM was even on the horizon

His friend, whose party it was, who is landed gentry and loaded, also despairs of the Conservatives, having been a One Nation Tory. Not sure he would ever go as far as voting SNP (although his wife now does ) but he'll either vote LibDem or not vote at the next election. He is strongly pro-EU.

Only a couple of examples - but there again, I don't know many Leavers or Conservatives

in the real world
It is worth understanding Urban that they real world is a very globalized thing. If living conditions and working conditions become too unpleasant the number of educated and talented people who will leave the UK to live and work elsewhere will increase.
Bankers and Business people may be disliked but they pay considerable taxes.
Medical staff, social workers etc are needed to keep the country ticking over socially.
Engineers and technical experts also add considerable value to a country.
Personally I already know a steady trickle who looking at the possible UK future are leaving.
The brain drain will restart.

Listening to BJ on PMQ. Honestly, I cannot understand what he is saying... clearly the benefits of being an Old Etonian don't extend to being able to speak properly. I guess its part of the strategy - confuse 'em all and they'll never know what's happening?

Know a few of those old style patrician Scots Tories, prettybird. They are somewhat taken aback atm. To put it mildly.

The shock is starting to turn to sorrow, anger or disgust.

The Brexiters are definitely rattled, judging by this thread

And who really cares now. Once we have left all Brexit leanings will be null and void.

Brexit is the manifestation of the culture war.

Not the cause of it.

Hence Trump.