Westminstenders: Prime Minister Johnson

[RedToothBrush]

It is actually happening.

By 5pm tomorrow Johnson should be Prime Minister, if nothing major goes wrong for him.

Phillip Hammond is expected to resign early in the morning. And there maybe others.

Parliament goes into recess on Thursday. Giving Johnson only enough time to announce a Cabinet and maybe give a brief statement in Parliament.

As it stands Johnson will have an effective majority of 1 if the Brecon by-election goes the way expected next week.

Unless someone else defects. Which isn't beyond the realms of possibility.

We also have Charlie Elphicke now suspended and facing a court appearance on 6th September, just 3 days after Parliament returns after the summer recess.

Remember when parliament returns Johnson must get a Queen's Speech vote to pass to start the new session.

The return of Parliament is 8 weeks before 31st October.

If Johnson can't pass a Queen's Speech... Is there time for a GE before 31st October? By the skin of our teeth? Or a crucial recall petition?

So for all the talk that parliament can we prevented from being prorogued or that we can get a deal by the 31st October, there is a GE shaped problem.

As for Johnson's plan for Brexit. Don't expect to see him say anything but waffly bollocks before that key Queens Speech vote. He can't. Instead expect lots of domestic promises - in part to distract, in part in prep for a possible snap election.

Of course to have an extension the Prime Minister needs to ask for it. Would a GE be enough to get one? And would we be granted one?

On the flip to that is the prospect of May's Deal. Much has been made of its death. But some have said its premature to say that. At the eleventh hour should the situation arise would parliament vote for it, backstop and all, to prevent no deal? Its not beyond the realms of possibility.

All the talk of Johnson driving a change of direction by the force of personality is nonsense. Johnson can use his personality domestically for support, but he his personality offers nothing to the EU.

On top of this all we have the Iran Oil Tanker Crisis. The US were alleged to have set us up, and now told us to look after our own tankers. Leaving us to look to Europe for international security cooperation in the area... Irony isn't lost.

Let us see what tomorrow might bring though...

there is no time for a General Election. It looks like those trying to overthrow democracy have run out of road

since when has no general election = democracy?

Holding a GE (especially before an event that will hammer the country for decades)
is not "trying to overthrow democracy"

Has there been any response to the Lib Dem VONC letter from Labour? Not seen any yet.

Pretty labour denying decimated is a bit of an issue.
And has allowed the Tories to make a come back.

I to remember the bad old days. My 1st
Vote cast was in 97 .

My concern is some unionists will not ever vote for SNP. Labour is not an alternative. Hopefully the Tories won’t be too.

My main worry is Nat Leavers. Will they vote Tory (depends on when election called) just to get No Deal and ultimately independence.

1)Defence – Jeremy Corbyn is known to oppose nuclear weapons and I think he wants the UK to give ours up unilaterally. Not just that, he has publicly stated that if the UK is attacked with nuclear weapons he as Prime Minister will have ordered our military to do nothing in response. In saying that, he renders instantly useless a system which costs huge amounts of the defence budget and has been 100% successful in deterring any foreign actor from attacking Britain with nuclear weapons 24/7/365 every day since 1993. Conclusion: Happy to leave Britain undefended.

But politicians lie all the time. What makes this so special ?

If Boris said "I'd never use nukes" he'd be lauded for ensuring an enemy could never be sure of the UKs response.

So now we've dismissed that "Corbyn-Nukes" bollocks, what's next ?

The fact is Mr Johnson is most likely to put the national interest first and take the country out of the UK.

Why?

To avoid a complete breakdown in democracy and trust

To avoid the Conservative party dying overnight. They have been given one last chance to deliver.

To ward off the Brexit party whom will take a huge amount of votes from both main parties, possibly replacing one party entirely.

To avoid the civil unrest that will follow the total loss of democratic processes.

They won’t get a no confidence through which is why Corbyn won’t call for one, least of all his leave MPs won’t wear it. No confidence in what exactly?! The government is not even formed yet!!

This

Let them get settled, let all the resignations finish, let a few more blunders come out

More knowledgeable posters am I right in thinking 52 days is the absolute minimum amount of days for a GE to be enacted?

As explained,
there are about 4 days in early September, after MPs return from recess in which a VoNC could be called and deliver a GE before Brexit Day

If another party wins, then the new PM can immediately request an extension, which the EU would grant

If BJ is returned then he'll just let time run out to No Deal

In the interim, he stays caretaker PM,
so if there is a hung Parliament and the Remain parties don't make a confidence & supply agreement in time,
then No Deal again

We all know that the call for a GE is just a second ref dressed up.
We need to deliver on the first ref before we can do anything else.

Defence – Jeremy Corbyn is known to oppose nuclear weapons and I think he wants the UK to give ours up unilaterally.

Corbyn wants to fund the terrestrial army more because of how much funding has been cut especially from veterans and active service members families, not fund the useless, american controlled trident

"Mr Johnson is most likely to put the national interest first"

BJ has put BJ first all his life !

It’s six weeks. 42 days. So latest date would be approx 18 September.

We all know that the call for a GE is just a second ref dressed up.
We need to deliver on the first ref before we can do anything else.

Wrong answer, please try again

Survey came back for the house I'm buying, its falling apart, needs millions to fix up, but I'm going to buy it anyway

Does that sound sensible urbanlife?

I think we all know that Corbyn is probably one of the most anti EU politicians of our time, they are against the corruption, the multi national influence and the lack of transparency and accountability that the EU commission stands for from top to bottom.

Corbyn only wants to escape being nailed to the issue, hoping the conservatives will take the hit, and he can emerge unscathed hopefully into No.10. It’s not a terrible pilucy!

A GE is not a 2nd ref, by any stretch of the imagination

When a govt is elected, even with a clear manifesto to carry out a policy,
there is no rule that a GE can't be called before the govt have managed to carry out that policy

We have a Parliamentary system under the British Constitution, not rule by referenda

Policy

big don’t demean yourself with cheap gags, he is an adult I am sure he has heard it all before.

Call away! It’s not going to happen.

@urbanlife, nothing is impossible. Surely the last three years have taught you that?

The hard left and hard right oppose the EU because they believe its rules stop them carrying out the full range of extreme policies they want

There is plenty of corruption in the UK
and we only have to look at the determination of many Brexiters to avoid an election, to see how shallow democracy is too

The EU has been a very convenient excuse for politicians to blame for their failures:

Boris Johnson on Brexit - 2013:

“If we left the EU… we would have to recognise that most of our problems are not caused by ‘Bwussels’,

but by chronic British short-termism, inadequate management, sloth, low skills, a culture of easy gratification and underinvestment in both human and physical capital and infrastructure…

Why are we still, person for person, so much less productive than the Germans?

That is now a question more than a century old, and the answer is nothing to do with the EU.”

urban I can't recall another UK PM who has been sacked for lying once, let alone twice

Those who know him well, like Max Hastings, have written of his total lack of morals and principles

I was Boris Johnson’s boss: he is utterly unfit to be prime minister

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jun/24/boris-johnson-prime-minister-tory-party-britain

he is unfit for national office, because it seems he cares for no interest save his own fame and gratification.

He is the only PM who could get away with the WA, or even Remain,

but the time before Brexit Day is insufficient to make eithef in his immediate political interest

"To avoid the civil unrest that will follow the total loss of democratic processes."

Again with giving into threats of violence. Make your mind up.