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Brexit

Westminstenders: Prime Minister Johnson

999 replies

RedToothBrush · 23/07/2019 22:58

It is actually happening.

By 5pm tomorrow Johnson should be Prime Minister, if nothing major goes wrong for him.

Phillip Hammond is expected to resign early in the morning. And there maybe others.

Parliament goes into recess on Thursday. Giving Johnson only enough time to announce a Cabinet and maybe give a brief statement in Parliament.

As it stands Johnson will have an effective majority of 1 if the Brecon by-election goes the way expected next week.

Unless someone else defects. Which isn't beyond the realms of possibility.

We also have Charlie Elphicke now suspended and facing a court appearance on 6th September, just 3 days after Parliament returns after the summer recess.

Remember when parliament returns Johnson must get a Queen's Speech vote to pass to start the new session.

The return of Parliament is 8 weeks before 31st October.

If Johnson can't pass a Queen's Speech... Is there time for a GE before 31st October? By the skin of our teeth? Or a crucial recall petition?

So for all the talk that parliament can we prevented from being prorogued or that we can get a deal by the 31st October, there is a GE shaped problem.

As for Johnson's plan for Brexit. Don't expect to see him say anything but waffly bollocks before that key Queens Speech vote. He can't. Instead expect lots of domestic promises - in part to distract, in part in prep for a possible snap election.

Of course to have an extension the Prime Minister needs to ask for it. Would a GE be enough to get one? And would we be granted one?

On the flip to that is the prospect of May's Deal. Much has been made of its death. But some have said its premature to say that. At the eleventh hour should the situation arise would parliament vote for it, backstop and all, to prevent no deal? Its not beyond the realms of possibility.

All the talk of Johnson driving a change of direction by the force of personality is nonsense. Johnson can use his personality domestically for support, but he his personality offers nothing to the EU.

On top of this all we have the Iran Oil Tanker Crisis. The US were alleged to have set us up, and now told us to look after our own tankers. Leaving us to look to Europe for international security cooperation in the area... Irony isn't lost.

Let us see what tomorrow might bring though...

Westminstenders: Prime Minister Johnson
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39
QueenMabby · 25/07/2019 07:45

Think my post yesterday got lost in all the cabinet horrors but asking again - why is JC such a bogeyman to the Tories that even many of the moderates would rather have Boris and his hardline cabinet?

jasjas1973 · 25/07/2019 07:46

Labour would need a clear out, not only of Corbyn but also some pretty useless shadow cabinet members too.

They won't or can't do it.

Expect the Cons and the LD to go up in the polls and BXP and LAB to fall further still.

BJ may well be heading for another GE (if he can get the 2/3rds required) should the HoC will find a way to block no-deal, even a 2nd vote? perhaps thats why Cummings is there.

NoWordForFluffy · 25/07/2019 07:55

It's the staggering hypocrisy of not calling a GE right away (which actually isn't staggering at all, given it's Johnson) given the comments made re Gordon Brown.

But actually, you'd think that a GE ASAP would be their best chance of winning due to the bounce they'll get at the expense of the BXP. And to capitalise on the Corbyn effect. If Labour gets their act together and / or the Johnson administration starts to look shit (shouldn't take long!) then they'll perform worse at a GE.

BubblesBuddy · 25/07/2019 07:56

The Conservatives will never want an old leftie like Corbyn in power. Too far left and some policies are close to communism. Centre right is actually where some Conservatives are and can countenance the centre left but far left, with Momentum running the show, simply is utterly unpalatable. Both parties are fighting as to who trashes the economy first though.

Motheroffourdragons · 25/07/2019 07:57

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Motheroffourdragons · 25/07/2019 07:58

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jasjas1973 · 25/07/2019 08:04

Too far left and some policies are close to communism

Pls put the 'Mail down and tell us which ones?

Tanith · 25/07/2019 08:20

"I wish (some) MNers didn't feel about Trans Issues how the rest of us feel about Brexit. Anyway, I don't mind the LibDems stance on trans issues."

It isn't their stance on trans issues that's the problem; it's their issue on safeguarding as a result of their trans policies. There are a significant number of trans people who are equally concerned.

Not that it matters now. I can't imagine the current Government chanting "Transwomen are women!" at the beginning of every cabinet meeting...

Sostenueto · 25/07/2019 08:32

JRM in charge of business in house omg!

Loathsome Leadsom in charge of business.
All I can say is HELP!

bellinisurge · 25/07/2019 08:36

Corbyn is a useless twat; his policies are mostly rehashed shit.
However, having actually lived under communism, it's nothing like that. Very lazy thinking to say it is.

ThereWillBeAdequateFood · 25/07/2019 08:36

I just don’t know what to say. This looks worse than I imagined.

The80sweregreat · 25/07/2019 08:38

Why can't the more moderate Labour Party members see the damage that having JC at the helm is doing?

Motheroffourdragons · 25/07/2019 08:42

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Sarahlou63 · 25/07/2019 08:44

"And it is of course vital at the same time that we prepare for the remote possibility that Brussels refuses any further to negotiate and we are forced to come out with no deal."

Interesting to see that from his very first speech as PM Johnson is already laying the foundations for blaming the EU for the disaster of a no deal Brexit...

urbanlife · 25/07/2019 08:44

Don’t worry folks. Labour have zero chance of winning a GE is the good news!

Remainers will defect to Liberal Democrat’s
The huge enormous swathes of labour supporters will defect to the Brexit party
The conservatives will need up protect their assets against a Corbyn government due to his policy on housing and propert/taxing so they will stay with the conservatives regardless of Brexit leanings.

The most likely, mathematically and politically will be a hung parliament with a conservative government backed by the Brexit party.

Labour will be annihilated

Motheroffourdragons · 25/07/2019 08:48

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BackInTime · 25/07/2019 08:50

Labour bods need to channel their inner Tory in order to just TELL Corbyn that his time is up. TM wasn't wrong yesterday with her jibe across the house to him. It's time for him to go!

While no fan of TM, she made some dreadful decisions, I do think that she clung in as long as she could to keep the hard right headbangers at bay. I saw this jibe as a desperate call to the Labour Party to get rid of Corbyn and become a credible opposition to hold these people to account. TM knows that it is an open goal for Boris and Farage if they are up against Labour with Corbyn at the helm.

prettybird · 25/07/2019 08:54

Current projections suggest that the Brexit Party will split the Conservative vote (Smile), so that even the two parties combined, they won't have a majority (even if you add in the DUP Hmm).

So then you get to the situation of a Labour, LibDem, SNP, Plaid Cymru, Green arrangement.

So yet more years of unstable government Sad

Now if we had a decent leader of the opposition...... Sad

MockerstheFeManist · 25/07/2019 09:10

Some interesting confrontations ahead:

Moggster vs Bercow

Patel vs Truth

Morgan vs Murdoch

Johnson vs arch-lever file in front of him

ThereWillBeAdequateFood · 25/07/2019 09:11

Current projections suggest that the Brexit Party will split the Conservative vote

Even with Johnson’s cabinet of horrors? I’m praying the Leave vote is split between Cons and Brex. But I’m worried Johnson will be Leave enough for people to vote cons not Brex.

Peregrina · 25/07/2019 09:15

So if Labour did ditch Corbyn, wouldn't a Leader who was truly electable be more of a worry?

RHTawneyonabus · 25/07/2019 09:19

@horseshit Early Day Motions have been described as Parliamentary graffiti. It’s just a statement that other MPs can sign up to if they agree. It has little effect

prettybird · 25/07/2019 09:20

Therewillbeadequatefood - it doesn't really matter: even if only a few "Leaver" Conservatives go to the Brexit Party, that will make inroads into the number of Conservative MPs - and may well even let in LibDems or SNP Smile

Combined with those Tories who're horrified at BJ's Far Right Cabinet and who either can't bring themselves to vote or will choose to vote LibDem (like Heseltine in the Euros) then an election is a big risk for BJ.

Half of me hopes that he is hubristic enough not to realise this Grin ....but with Cummings as a SPAD, he might be constrained and be more patient until they can come up with enough lies to take the risk Hmm

jasjas1973 · 25/07/2019 09:28

BJ is acting as if he has a 50 seat majority, by next week he could have just one, inc the DUP, though i suspect he'd try and bring back Elphicke even if he was in jail!

He has certainly got enough enemies on the back benches now to make life hard for him.

OhYouBadBadKitten · 25/07/2019 09:28

I'm just trying to catch up with everything after a day thank fully away from the news. I can't get my head around the magnitude of it all.