Westminstenders: Prime Minister Johnson

[RedToothBrush]

It is actually happening.

By 5pm tomorrow Johnson should be Prime Minister, if nothing major goes wrong for him.

Phillip Hammond is expected to resign early in the morning. And there maybe others.

Parliament goes into recess on Thursday. Giving Johnson only enough time to announce a Cabinet and maybe give a brief statement in Parliament.

As it stands Johnson will have an effective majority of 1 if the Brecon by-election goes the way expected next week.

Unless someone else defects. Which isn't beyond the realms of possibility.

We also have Charlie Elphicke now suspended and facing a court appearance on 6th September, just 3 days after Parliament returns after the summer recess.

Remember when parliament returns Johnson must get a Queen's Speech vote to pass to start the new session.

The return of Parliament is 8 weeks before 31st October.

If Johnson can't pass a Queen's Speech... Is there time for a GE before 31st October? By the skin of our teeth? Or a crucial recall petition?

So for all the talk that parliament can we prevented from being prorogued or that we can get a deal by the 31st October, there is a GE shaped problem.

As for Johnson's plan for Brexit. Don't expect to see him say anything but waffly bollocks before that key Queens Speech vote. He can't. Instead expect lots of domestic promises - in part to distract, in part in prep for a possible snap election.

Of course to have an extension the Prime Minister needs to ask for it. Would a GE be enough to get one? And would we be granted one?

On the flip to that is the prospect of May's Deal. Much has been made of its death. But some have said its premature to say that. At the eleventh hour should the situation arise would parliament vote for it, backstop and all, to prevent no deal? Its not beyond the realms of possibility.

All the talk of Johnson driving a change of direction by the force of personality is nonsense. Johnson can use his personality domestically for support, but he his personality offers nothing to the EU.

On top of this all we have the Iran Oil Tanker Crisis. The US were alleged to have set us up, and now told us to look after our own tankers. Leaving us to look to Europe for international security cooperation in the area... Irony isn't lost.

Let us see what tomorrow might bring though...

Boris is hoping to out Brexit the Brexit party and get 52% onside in a GE while remain vote is split between LD, Greens, Lab who probably have no option left but to support a second ref in the most grudging way possible. The current Parliament is not sustainable so he has assembled a cabinet of leavers who are battle ready.

If a vote of no confidence was tabled as soon as recess ends, I can’t see how a GE could take place and a new govt could be formed by Oct 31 so that won’t stop us crashing out. It’s not helpful if you want to stop the no deal on which The Torys now depend. Parliament will have to find another way.

I don't get why the Tories are terrified of corbyn either. He's clearly a shite leader on so many levels but they seem petrified. I wouldn't vote for him, but he's surely less damaging then the current lot, who have made a right hash job of governing over the last 10 years. They will leave a broken country after 10 years, at least labour only left a broke one.

A Leaver friend, (yes, I do have some!) is as horrified as anyone about a Johnson Government, and now doesn't know who to vote for.

Bit like my DH who has turned into a Lexiter - and thinks that the Left have no anti-EU party to vote for, while making comments that 80% of people voted for parties who support Brexit. Which to me makes it obvious where he should cast his vote.

I think I posted this before but it shows earliest possible polling day is 24 Oct. that’s simply not going to happen now unless by some miracle. Then possibly you’d have to get a coalition agreed in record time.

commonslibrary.parliament.uk/parliament-and-elections/elections-elections/when-might-an-early-general-election-take-place/.

Really odd that the HoC library are issuing research papers on this. Strange times.

Do you think the Tories could be wiped out in Scotland?

I know there are a few leavers, but many are probably SNP.

Lib Dem’s could get a boost especially with Jo Swinson being Scottish.

The Tories have been wiped out before in Scotland, they could be again

That was back when Scotland was a Labour fiefdom - now it's becoming an SNP one. Iirc, the last projections had the SNP on 39. I think it could be more, especially with BJ's Cabinet. The LibDems might benefit a bit but I think only marginally as they're not seen as the relevant pro-EU party here (as seen in the EU elections).

There are only 13 Tories to get rid of up here - perfectly achievable

MPs want to be sure there is no chance of leaving without a deal they need to call and win a vote of no confidence today or the first day of recess

Any chance of them doing this? So nervous right now.

Laura Kuenssberg @bbclaurak

So according to a source who knows their way around the machinations of Whitehall... if MPs want to be sure there is no chance of leaving without a deal they need to call and win a vote of no confidence today or the first day of recess

See you guys beat me to it

I don't get why the Tories are terrified of corbyn either.

"Terrified" ? Bollocks,

Sorry, from the few Tories I know that spout that bollocks, it's just a fig leaf for being a cunt.

Mum, how do you vote for a party which shits on anyone you don't like with a clear conscience ?

Mum: Well we don't want Corbyn in do we ?

MPs want to be sure there is no chance of leaving without a deal they need to call and win a vote of no confidence today or the first day of recess

Never gonna happen.

Yep Corbyn is a very handy "bogeyman" to shield the Tories from their own incompetence.

Once again the media have done a great job of fooling an easily fooled public.

It's probably premature for a vote of No Confidence. I think there needs to be the sense that the general public are behind it, and as yet, I don't think they are.

I have come round to the view that we need to crash out, but it will be the EU which gets the blame. But I am still holding out hope for Boris Johnson to lose his seat at the next GE and with a hung Parliament ensuing with the problem of who to call to attempt to form a Government.

Actually it looks like Jo Swinson has written to Corbyn to implore him to call a vote of no conf, as it is only the official opposition who can do that.

She might feel that her comments of 'I wont form a coalition with Labour if Corbyn is in charge' might have been a bit hasty now thats she needs him, those saying why hasnt Corbyn been ditched its because ultimately the majority of the membership still want him there, we'd also like Pidcock as our deputy not Fatberg Slim

I'll be honest I am surprised no one picked up how Tory-friendly Jo Swinson is, and how a Swinson-Corbyn lovechild seems politically unlikely >

They won’t get a no confidence through which is why Corbyn won’t call for one, least of all his leave MPs won’t wear it. No confidence in what exactly?! The government is not even formed yet!!

When MPs come back from recess,
there are only about 4 days in which to have a VoNC without the probable GE running over Brexit Day

Moderate Tories who put the the country first must realise in time
that risking a GE - with whatever result - is far better than the near-certainty otherwise of No Deal

There is no other realistic mechanism for MPs to avoid an automatic No Deal:
They can't force an unwilling PM to ask for an extension - May really preferred an extension to No Deal; BJ doesn't

Even if MPs had the opportunity and voted for a PV, they can't force an extension to give time to hold it

All BJ has to do is hold onto power until 1 Nov and we're out

Anyone betting that BJ will at the last moment out the country first and ask for an extension is being wildly optimistic, to say the least

The actual policies of Corbyn's party get a lot of public support. So it is vital for the Conservatives and the right-wing media to avoid policies and generate personal attacks.

If they really thought Corbyn couldn't win an election, they'd want him to stay.

Who's "fatberg slim" Tom Watson? That's superb

@QueenMabby. Re your question on Corbyn and why he is such a bogeyman for Conservatives

I think, he's basically a pretty ordinary, fairly old fashioned traditional socialist, honestly don't think that's where the problem is. I like him in lots of ways and when he ran for leader the contrast between him and his polished, processed, triangulating opponents for the Labour leadership was striking. He’s also right on a lot of things, investment in public services being desperately needed for one.

All this “comrade Corbyn” “Commie Corbyn” type of jibes are nonsensical IMO, so what's the problem.

1. Defence – Jeremy Corbyn is known to oppose nuclear weapons and I think he wants the UK to give ours up unilaterally. Not just that, he has publicly stated that if the UK is attacked with nuclear weapons he as Prime Minister will have ordered our military to do nothing in response. In saying that, he renders instantly useless a system which costs huge amounts of the defence budget and has been 100% successful in deterring any foreign actor from attacking Britain with nuclear weapons 24/7/365 every day since 1993. Conclusion: Happy to leave Britain undefended.

2. Ireland and JCs “friends”. JC apparently wants there to be a united Ireland (an entirely legitimate aim when pursued peacefully.) It’s odd one for someone who wishes to be PM of the UK but he's entitled to want that. What a prospective PM should not have been doing is cosily meeting with leaders of Sinn Fein at a time when members of the IRA were killing and maiming people in Northern Ireland, bombing there and elsewhere in the UK and killing service personnel. Conclusion: Happy to side with people who are killing and bombing people to get what they want in Ireland.

3. Everything is basically Britain’s (and America’s) fault. Corbyn seems to believe that most of the world’s ills are the fault of us or the Americans. For example, he apparently said “The security of this country is at risk. Its at risk because of the way we inflict an insecurity on so many people around the world." Hmmm, he might have a point there! When did he say that?! 3 days after the 7/7 bombings. Just let that sink in for a sec, 3 days after 56 people are killed in the capital, Jeremy Corbyn says our government, our policy is responsible, not the terrorists. Conclusion: Basically if you are a Britain killed in a terror attack, it’s your own fault.

In any event even if the no confidence vote was successful ( it is most likely to be defeated in reality as MPs tend to consider their jobs and futures post Brexit - re Ber Rudd) there is no time for a General Election.

It looks like those trying to overthrow democracy have run out of road.

@urbanlife, has it passed you by the Johnson has no majority? He’s just alienated 17 former cabinet ministers. Apparently there are upwards of 40 Tory MPs who would vote against him in a no confidence vote. It would stand every chance of going through.

A VoNC does not require any justification

The Opposition leader can call for it any time Parliament is in session and it takes priority over any other business

It depends on whether Corbyn actually wants a No Deal

• which would give him his best and probably only chance of power, 6 months later, to reverse decades of economic policy that rolled back the welfare state and hammered the unions