Westminstenders: Prime Minister Johnson

[RedToothBrush]

It is actually happening.

By 5pm tomorrow Johnson should be Prime Minister, if nothing major goes wrong for him.

Phillip Hammond is expected to resign early in the morning. And there maybe others.

Parliament goes into recess on Thursday. Giving Johnson only enough time to announce a Cabinet and maybe give a brief statement in Parliament.

As it stands Johnson will have an effective majority of 1 if the Brecon by-election goes the way expected next week.

Unless someone else defects. Which isn't beyond the realms of possibility.

We also have Charlie Elphicke now suspended and facing a court appearance on 6th September, just 3 days after Parliament returns after the summer recess.

Remember when parliament returns Johnson must get a Queen's Speech vote to pass to start the new session.

The return of Parliament is 8 weeks before 31st October.

If Johnson can't pass a Queen's Speech... Is there time for a GE before 31st October? By the skin of our teeth? Or a crucial recall petition?

So for all the talk that parliament can we prevented from being prorogued or that we can get a deal by the 31st October, there is a GE shaped problem.

As for Johnson's plan for Brexit. Don't expect to see him say anything but waffly bollocks before that key Queens Speech vote. He can't. Instead expect lots of domestic promises - in part to distract, in part in prep for a possible snap election.

Of course to have an extension the Prime Minister needs to ask for it. Would a GE be enough to get one? And would we be granted one?

On the flip to that is the prospect of May's Deal. Much has been made of its death. But some have said its premature to say that. At the eleventh hour should the situation arise would parliament vote for it, backstop and all, to prevent no deal? Its not beyond the realms of possibility.

All the talk of Johnson driving a change of direction by the force of personality is nonsense. Johnson can use his personality domestically for support, but he his personality offers nothing to the EU.

On top of this all we have the Iran Oil Tanker Crisis. The US were alleged to have set us up, and now told us to look after our own tankers. Leaving us to look to Europe for international security cooperation in the area... Irony isn't lost.

Let us see what tomorrow might bring though...

I've done some Brexit-proofing on my share portfolio. Spare cash from some recent sales now in non-sterling denominated assets. If Johnson is serious about no deal + a spending spree then the pound is going to take a battering.

DD and IDS are idiot has-beens rather than idiot relative newbies, as such are liabilities. They would want to be listened to and who would bother?

Well this is all worse than I thought it would be. Bugger. My normal approach to life - 'be pessimistic in order to be pleasantly surprised when the worst doesn't happen' - still has the bar for pessimism set to 'normal life' not 'life in Brexit Britain'. I need to radically shift my pessimism downwards don't I?

Is it bad to say I never really read the WA? This is because everyone seemed to immediately say it wasn't going to go through so I thought wait to see what comes next. Not knowing at the time nothing would come next.

Now I feel guilty confessing that!

Is it bad to say I never really read the WA?

I suspect the same is true of 100% of the people posting on here and all of the new cabinet (probably all of the old cabinet too, except Cox). Unless you are a trained lawyer then you are probably better off reading informed opinions on it rather than the source itself.

Itv news @itvnews
Rory Stewart admits he would not stand as a Conservative if Boris Johnson forces Tory MPs to back no-deal manifesto in a General Election

www.itv.com/news/2019-07-24/boris-johnsons-new-cabinet-not-a-vote-leave-coup-says-jacob-rees-mogg/
Boris Johnson's new Cabinet 'not a Vote Leave coup', says Jacob Rees-Mogg

I have read the WA. In the sense that I've had it open on my computer, read a bit and then thought fuck it I don't need to read all of it, just a few bits I'm referencing right now. But no I've not read it start to finish.

JoannaCuppa
... some of the ridiculous comments ...

@TruthOnTrial

I would think many were fed up of 'his' ridiculous comments also

Hmm. I thought that you would have had more class than to mock someone who can no longer defend themselves. Obviously not.

You make it sound like a case of people in glass houses! But some in glass houses can, but others who might mirror back the comments 'lack class'.
Its a bit like hiding behind your dc whilst throwing rocks and blaming the others for daring to get cross cos it'll upset your dc.

Oh well. Kind of ironic i guess

I've read some of the WA, also bits of the much larger Lisbon Treaty

Sometimes important to check source material

.

Telegraph are wrong about who will lose their shirts - or have them stolen

Why Europe can’t stop laughing at Boris Johnson

https://www.politico.eu/article/why-europe-cant-stop-laughing-at-boris-johnson/

If anything, Johnson’s election as prime minister will make it easier for EU leaders to stick to their guns by refusing to budge on the terms of the deal they negotiated with Theresa May, his predecessor.

Whatever her shortcomings as a prime minister, May, unlike Johnson, enjoyed a reputation among European leaders as an honest broker.
.....-
Given the leading role Johnson played in the Brexit campaign and his continued taunting of the EU,
European leaders don’t just distrust the new prime minister, many despise him.

I think the telegraph have photoshopped Boris really badly.
Amusingly Dh had some corporate photos taken recently and they promised they they would do this for him.
I am surprised by common this is now for blokes.

Yes I should read source material. I've always been a bit of skim reader😬.

Yes Johnson looks about three stone lighter, even allowing for the fact that he's obviously been on a Carrie inspired diet.

It's also a ginormous giveaway that the Telegraph were allowed to take the shot from inside No. 10. Presumably they said "don't worry! We won't make you look like a the fat, oleaginous oaf that you are!"

Did the times mean for PM to be giving an almost Hitler salute on the front page or is that suppose to be a wave????

Good Cummings assessment by Pete North, of all people.

peterjnorth.blogspot.com/2019/07/cummings-legend-in-his-own-lunchtime.html

Every single member of this cabinet is a cunt by default

Sajid Javid seems to be one of the better ones IMO!

Good Cummings assessment by Pete North, of all people.

A lot of that article could also apply to North and his dad. Takes one to know one.

Cummings is just another chancer, albeit a cleverer one than most. That Commons select committee meeting, where the house of cards was collapsed by Andrew Tyrie, was a thing of beauty.

hazard I had the same thought.

John crace is brilliant.

Very late PMK

I notice that from the ITV piece that the newly appointed Leader of the House of Commons Rees-Mogg is already lining up a Woman and a BAME man to take the blame when it goes tits up for Leave.
"Sajid Javid and Liz Truss, who both got very important positions, both backed Remain during the referendum."

I don't know without looking it up what Rees-Mogg's majority is, but I hope he gets voted out next time.

I do wonder how the ones that voted for Jeremy Hunt feel today. Will they still vote Tory at the next election? Will they feel worried? Will it always be party first regardless?
Another GE will return a Tory government.
I've had a quick read of the papers online and that's the general consensus but I still wonder about the rebels.

.

Labour bods need to channel their inner Tory in order to just TELL Corbyn that his time is up. TM wasn't wrong yesterday with her jibe across the house to him. It's time for him to go!