Westminstenders: Prime Minister Johnson

[RedToothBrush]

It is actually happening.

By 5pm tomorrow Johnson should be Prime Minister, if nothing major goes wrong for him.

Phillip Hammond is expected to resign early in the morning. And there maybe others.

Parliament goes into recess on Thursday. Giving Johnson only enough time to announce a Cabinet and maybe give a brief statement in Parliament.

As it stands Johnson will have an effective majority of 1 if the Brecon by-election goes the way expected next week.

Unless someone else defects. Which isn't beyond the realms of possibility.

We also have Charlie Elphicke now suspended and facing a court appearance on 6th September, just 3 days after Parliament returns after the summer recess.

Remember when parliament returns Johnson must get a Queen's Speech vote to pass to start the new session.

The return of Parliament is 8 weeks before 31st October.

If Johnson can't pass a Queen's Speech... Is there time for a GE before 31st October? By the skin of our teeth? Or a crucial recall petition?

So for all the talk that parliament can we prevented from being prorogued or that we can get a deal by the 31st October, there is a GE shaped problem.

As for Johnson's plan for Brexit. Don't expect to see him say anything but waffly bollocks before that key Queens Speech vote. He can't. Instead expect lots of domestic promises - in part to distract, in part in prep for a possible snap election.

Of course to have an extension the Prime Minister needs to ask for it. Would a GE be enough to get one? And would we be granted one?

On the flip to that is the prospect of May's Deal. Much has been made of its death. But some have said its premature to say that. At the eleventh hour should the situation arise would parliament vote for it, backstop and all, to prevent no deal? Its not beyond the realms of possibility.

All the talk of Johnson driving a change of direction by the force of personality is nonsense. Johnson can use his personality domestically for support, but he his personality offers nothing to the EU.

On top of this all we have the Iran Oil Tanker Crisis. The US were alleged to have set us up, and now told us to look after our own tankers. Leaving us to look to Europe for international security cooperation in the area... Irony isn't lost.

Let us see what tomorrow might bring though...

Look I'm with the man on the megaphone. 'Stop Brexit!'

Why didn't you?

Perhaps you'd like to go back and read old Westminstenders threads.

I've stated my opinion on this for a long time.

I'm one of the very few here who has said I I was concerned that if didn't pass it would result in no deal therefore I supported May's deal passing.

Yet I'm constantly characterised on MN as being a hard line Remainer.

shrugs

I certainly have not been in the 'holding out for remain' camp.

You’ve got it in one Red, agree totally. Anti “No Deal” MPs of whom th Commons has a huge majority should have voted for “Deal” been saying that for months.

Dh has just said to me, "Whoever would've thought that there could a leader more unpopular than Thatcher was in Scotland."

True dat.

I wish (some) MNers didn't feel about Trans Issues how the rest of us feel about Brexit. Anyway, I don't mind the LibDems stance on trans issues.

I do like Jo Swinson, but she's hamstrung by 2010 which means LibDems stop themselves from being Kingmakes (boohoo).

That leaves the SNP as the most likely king makers. Interesting

Doesn't sound like Rudd is being rewarded for her last minute Brexit supporting public loyalty to BJ. "What's that you say? The Brexiters are a bunch of backstabbers?" Who knew

Bolton agrees with us, red
This why the extravagant promises of money- as trustworthy as any previous Leave prommises

Adam Boulton@adamboultonSKY

This is a campaign team for an early election

not a government to last until 2022.

I'm going to bed, utterly horrified by the whole thing.

I suspect this isn't one of those things that will look brighter in the morning.

I always like your contributions derxa - even if I don't always agree with you

I also appreciate the insights into the difficulties of farming life. I know it's a tough life - and that many people are ignorant of how hard it is. Which won't be made easier by Brexit

Rudd was rewarded - she wasn't sacked

Which won't be made easier by Brexit Well I won't be burning my sheep on a funeral pyre

If the SNP were to end up "kingmakers" after the next GE, they won't ever go into any arrangement with the Conservatives or Brexit Party.

But even if they were to agree to work with Labour and/or the LibDems (on a C&S basis), the price will be an immediate early Section 30 notice.

With your (typo) about Bolton BigChoc I was wondering whether you were referring to the place in Lancashire or John ! 🤔

red has repeatedly said the WA is the best way to avoid No Deal

I've also got into many heated arguments here, saying the WA - with backstop is better than the high probability of ND

Leading Remainers like Blair were just as prepared as Brexiters to gamble all or nothing
That's our all - like the Brexiters, he'll be ok after ND

tobee It's 39C all week here
On another MN board, I already posted "bra" instead of "brain" illustrating that my brain doesn't function well in this heat

BCF Bolton is just one journalist I've seen say that. I think that's the prevailing thought now.

It's been for sometime this question between the ERG and the moderates and what they fear most.

The moderates are asked if they fear no deal or a Corbyn government most.

The ERG are asked if they fear remaining or a Corbyn government most.

The moderates struggle with the question. And in the end, it seems they fear a Corbyn government more so remained loyal to the party.

The ERG on the other hand were always a party within the Tory party. Their sole purpose is to get us out of Europe. They will kamikaze to do it, because it enables hard right policies which break human rights. They think its worth gambling everything for.

Thus risking a Corbyn government is one they are prepared to take.

The moderates can 'be bought'.

That's the point. And that's what Johnson will effectively do with his campaign promises.

Derxa, regardless of what WE think, we have no power to choose. It's not US you should be berating for not supporting the WA (or otherwise), it's the bloody MPs who've now allowed Johnson to get in as PM by constantly failing to say what they bloody WANT.

Jo Johnson has his job as universities minister back.

On the plus side, no Steve Baker nor Mark Francois.

I don’t know what to do. Except stockpile. I am not sure what I thought today would bring but I am certain it wasn’t this.

So game on for an early GE. A four way split. Another minority government. Will the Lib Dem’s side with Labour. Will the Brexit Party side with the Tories. What of the SNP and Greens. Increased numbers no doubt. But without a clear majority that will get a working agreement through PArliament where are we.

All roads lead to out?

Ah nepotism.

When you give your brother, his old job back (which he noblely resigned from) and effectively give him a promotion by saying he can now attend cabinet.

Like Trump.

Lib Dems have tabled early day motion against PM

Bit weak really can’t think why they’d bother

No guarantee that May's deal would not have led to no deal in the fullness of time, although it would have postponed the cliff.

What exactly does that motion mean, RH?

Nothing for David Davis or Ian Duncan Smith?

Johnson is making the gamble that May did, that there's 52% of the vote which believes in leaving.

Remember he ran a successful campaign on this premise by blame, disinformation and false promises.

He's brought Cummings back in to effectively rerun that campaign.

Meanwhile the LD and Labour split the remain vote.

They won't cooperate on seats. This the 48% are split.

They will struggle to win a GE even if they power share for this reason.

The Brexit Party only exists to force Johnson to do exactly this: it remains to be seen if it will stand candidates at a GE (I doubt it, if Johnson takes this line).

Be careful what you wish for... Remainers were naive and missed the ref result coming and were shocked when it happened.

They are making the same mistake twice.