Westministenders: Hustings and Humilation

[RedToothBrush]

Round 1 has passed.
Boris is winning. But these are the Tories. Surprises might yet happen.

But the chances are the lying buffon is full speed ahead to be the next PM. As long as he manages to keep his mouth shut.

Unfortunately being Prime Minister involves talking. This might prove to be something that bursts the BorisMania rather rapidly.

A GE is still very much on the cards.

And we might face the Constitutional and undemocratic shutting down of parliament to satisfy the Tory Faithless.

Meanwhile the EU couldn't give less shits. They just think we are wasting the time we were granted in good faith.

31st October beckons with No Deal.

The resurgent LD/Green parties are dismissed as not a real threat due to the FPTP system and their more localised support.

That might be a mistake - the localised support might work to their advantage and win them a few extra key seats, enough to deny both the Tories and Labour a majority.

The unknown is the Brexit party - will it go the way of UKIP and only get the odd ex-Tory elected?

I was reading something about the EU elections and Tory to LD switchers yesterday. I'll see if I can find sometime today.

It said that it was a bigger problem than the Tories realise because what had happened was Tory 2015 EU election voters hadn't switched to the Brexit Party. The Brexit Party only swallowed the UKIP vote. The push by the Tory party to regain those votes that Cameron had gambled on when he went for the EU Ref had therefore backfired.

Instead it had alienated centrist tories and now the 'ld decapitation strategy' of the 2015 General election was in full reverse and likely to bite the party on the arse at a general election, not just the European election.

It movement wasn't purely about Europe either, but a more general liberal attitude as opposed to a hard right agenda.

This, is definitely going to be a problem for any Tory leader, but especially one who comes from the right of the party.

That rather confirms my gut feeling Red.

{Labour’s shadow cabinet is today set to back a second referendum in all circumstances but less likely to back a Remain position in all circumstances.}

What is the point of a referendum if the UK is going to leave anyway?

What is the point of a referendum if the UK is going to leave anyway?

But are we?

If there is a GE and eg Labour win and back a second referendum, the result of that could mean we don’t.

Corbyn has seen off two Tory leaders in rather the same way that our cat used to see off intruding cats in the garden - stare at them till they got bored and went away and then strut around all "There, that showed him!"...

{If there is a GE and eg Labour win and back a second referendum, the result of that could mean we don’t.}

I am afraid if you think that the UK is going to get it's sorry arse into gear and achieve all that within 4 months, when the HoC is only sitting for another 30 days or so during this period considering it hasn't quite managed to decide if it really wants in or out in 3 years at some point a degree of reality has to creep in.

Matthew Goodwin @GoodwinMJ
Hi Twitter, we just released our new paper on Britain's 2019 EP election:

"Resurgent Remain and a Rebooted Revolt on the Right"

Download it direct from my website
www.matthewjgoodwin.org/academic.html

Best, Matt
Do follow @olhe @CaitlinMilazzo
I can't persuade David Cutts to join Twitter

Findings: Brexit Party didn't hurt Tories much, picked up 2014 UKIP vote Lib Dems hit Tories hard Leavers have turnout problem Lib Dems not just a Remain backlash, more complex Farage hurt Lab in left behind areas Lab 2017 coalition eroding fast No easy way out for Lab & Con now

It's now clear that one irony of sorts is ever since Britain voted to leave the EU its politics look more European -political fragmentation, polarisation, volatility, challenger parties doing better, a resurgent populism, those things EU member states grappling with we have too

Much of our debate traces this simply to Brexit. But this is very misleading. The deeper pressures on Britain's 2 party system began long ago & look set to remain. 2017 looks like an outlier. For an excellent overview see David Sanders' slides here ->
www.thebritishacademy.ac.uk/sites/default/files/170704-Sanders-The_UKs_Changing_Party_System-slides.pdf

Britain is basically stuck with a two-party system in which multi-party politics is trying to burst through. Labour & the Conservatives, whether at general elections or European elections, are increasingly unable to command the scale of support they had in the past

2019 saw this on steroids; Brexit appears to be accelerating the fragmentation but is not the cause. Last month, support for two main parties plummeted to just 23%, which is the lowest combined share since Lab & Con became main representatives of two-party system

Aside from this 2019 EP election is interesting for a few reasons 1. Parties that unambiguously backed 2nd referendum gained an average of 21 points in each authority. Parties that unambiguously backed No Deal Brexit (Brexit Party + UKIP = BXP+) gained average of 8 points

Rory Stewart our only hope in a pile of you know what.

Forgot the images

Matthew Goodwin @GoodwinMJ
5. Relationship between Brexit Party & Leave stronger than Lib Dem & Remain, which points to fact more is going on with Lib Dem resurgence than "just" backlash among Remainers. Lib Dems prob mopping up "none of the above" sentiment, local issues etc. So they are in good place

My impression is that Remainers are digging in for the long haul. I may only feel this because I live in a Remain bubble and support a Remain party.

I don't get quite the same sense from Leavers.

How? until the tories see that brexit leads them to fall dramatically in the polls to a Labour party supporting a second vote, we are going to leave the EU before the next GE.... what any pro remain party does after brexit is immaterial.

I disagree strongly with your analysis of the situation:

1. Unless the new Tory PM can magically get a deal through Parliament, they are likely to be stuffed:

a) if the PM tried to delay further beyond 31 Oct (especially if a deal isn’t imminent), then I’d expect a fair few Tory no-deal Brexit Spartans to break ranks, join the Brexit Party, join a NC vote and trigger a GE b) if the PM pushes accepts a no-deal outcome, numerous Tories have said they’ll bring down the Government. The argument against this seems to be that turkeys don’t vote for Christmas... well, a number of Tories “turkeys” have already voted (Heidi Allen etc) and for many of the Tory turkeys, it’s already Christmas! Ken Clarke, Dominic Grieve et al are at the end of their careers and have nothing to lose. It’s not a certainty that enough will vote down the Government, but I think enough will do so, and even see it as ultimately a beneficial career move!

1. You assume that the status quo of 2 party politics will continue... but I’m sure Liberals thought the same in 1918, and more recently Labour in Scotland in 2010 (with many, many similar examples in other countries). It doesn’t mean this is definitely the end of the Tory/Labour stranglehold on UK politics, but to assume everything will revert back to normal come a GE is rather narrow-minded.

Also, the LDs/Greens/CHUK got 35% of the vote in the European elections. If this were boosted by disgruntled ‘one-nation’ Tories following the NC vote, and the LDs and Greens got their act together, the position with seats could change very quickly.

For instance, at a Westminster parliamentary constituency level in my area of Suffolk, the Brexit Party won by 10%... if LD/Green/CHUK votes were combined, they would exceeded the BP vote by 12%, and would have won even if the 100% of the Tory vote was added to the BP! There are dozens of similar constituencies.

Also, the actual number of Westminster constituencies that would have been won in the EU election far exceeds the figures if you simply plug the %s into online models... the Greens would have won 10 for example.

There's an eerie symmetry (I think) between the Brexit debate and climate change debate. An awful lot of heads-in-sand and people spectacularly missing the bigger picture.

Point: "We must reduce the amount we or humans are doomed"
Retort: "But how can my LO do ballet ?"

Oaken Amber Rudd said on Pienaars Politics she felt there was already enough Tories who would be prepared to vote along with Labour to force through a vote of no confidence question is has Corbyn got enough control of Labour MPs to do the same. Does anyone know how Lib Dem’s would vote ?

The elections for the Eurp MEPs is not a true reflection of anything as it is 'confusion central' .
With the woeful organisation of any decent 'remain' willingness in the UK (as represented by MPs) the Euro elections can mean anything to anybody, and do relatively little to resolve the question of leaving or revoking.

Does anyone know how Lib Dem’s would vote ?

A bit of a no-brainer surely... Why on earth wouldn’t they vote to bring down a Government about to take us out on a no-deal Brexit?!

It’s just about possible that a few Labour MPs would provide a vote of confidence in a Tory Government seeking a no-deal and effectively keep them in power until 2022, but it would be an utterly incredible thing for a Labour MP to do, even if the were strongly pro-leave.

No more incredible for Labour Leavers to vote to support the govt than for Tory Remainers to vote to bring down the govt

The elections for the Eurp MEPs is not a true reflection of anything as it is 'confusion central'

Of course you can extrapolate too far... and perhaps I did. I think that my point still stands that a LD-Green collaboration at a GE could do pretty well given that it would be the obvious place for Tories who want to avoid a no-deal and Corbyn in equal measure.... and at the very least ensure that Labour could only form a minority administration, if they can at all, which would blunt the worst of any Corbyn excesses.

Also, if we have a GE in 2019, look forward to another one in 2020 as any resultant administration is unlikely to be at all stable.

You have to take anything Amber says atm with a bucketload of salt. She is heading up Hunt's campaign so it is literally her job to rubbish Boris' claim to be able to deliver Brexit by a hard deadline.

Also she is top of the Momentum Adopt a Tory List what with her sub 500 maj and record at HO and DWP.

Bear in mind that the Tory Leadership contest will make it much much harder for Tory MPs to rebel because they would not just be voting against their Front Bench but also a Leadership newly endorsed by their Membership (not that it bothers TW much on the other side)

Several Tory MPs have already suffered No Confidence votes from their constituencies, including Dominic Grieve. David Gauke looks to be next. This is the first stage in deselection. Iirc Ken Clarke has said he won't stand again and I doubt even he would view it as the honourable thing bowing out having just voted No Confidence against his Party. To date the Independents, including Tiggers have refused to back Labour led No Confidence positions.

Agree re comments on reading too much into Euro elections, especially given low turnout skewed by Conservative Leavers abstaining in protest.

Anyone believing they can safely vote LibDem in hopes of a LibLab pact must have a very very short memory. If LibDem even hint at this as a strategy Labour will go full attack mode on the Clegg / Cameron love in which scuppered Brown. That is before they even get as far as the Coalition record.

Heartened to hear Fluffy Mundell confirm he sees no issue with an MP for a Scottish constituency becoming PM in answer to a question from Mhairi Black. He even encouraged her to aspire.

How what difference do abstentions make her wording to me seemed to imply that there wouldn’t be enough votes with the Government rather than active votes against although as you say there are more than a couple of Tory MPs with nowt to lose How many Tiggers are actually left? Boles as an Independent would vote against as would SNP ? DUP who knows ?

Is Mhairi Black the very young MP who landed in Westminster with a bang I seem to recall ?

Yep that's Mhairi.

That is the inconsistency in Amber's current politicking. The Government doesn't need a positive vote for anything for No Deal whereas to block it Parliament do. Labour couldn't even win a vote to allot Parliamentary time to vote on blocking No Deal last week.

The only sure method to avoid No Deal was the stepped strategy ending in Revoke as laid out in the Cherry amendment which Parliament debated following Cooper/Boles. It got nowhere near a majority.

Those Tories who are retiring at the next GE, or deselected, even those who expect to lose their marginal seat ......

Tiggers ...

all might support a Labour NC vote if it really is the last chance to try to stop a PM determined to No Deal
Or they might not.

Some of those who said they would, who won't still be MPs after a GE anyway,
are quite likely to go out in a blaze of glory, trying to avoid the harm No Deal would cause the country

Any other leader but JC, I'd rate winning NC a 90% chance

With him, 50%

The real issue here is that there is no credible opposition. I don't understand why Labour is still saddled with him??