Westministenders: Hustings and Humilation

[RedToothBrush]

Round 1 has passed.
Boris is winning. But these are the Tories. Surprises might yet happen.

But the chances are the lying buffon is full speed ahead to be the next PM. As long as he manages to keep his mouth shut.

Unfortunately being Prime Minister involves talking. This might prove to be something that bursts the BorisMania rather rapidly.

A GE is still very much on the cards.

And we might face the Constitutional and undemocratic shutting down of parliament to satisfy the Tory Faithless.

Meanwhile the EU couldn't give less shits. They just think we are wasting the time we were granted in good faith.

31st October beckons with No Deal.

{Can we have a PM who understands basic maths?}

Why?
All 'Brexiteers' see UK collapse as a 'boost' that is taking back control.
The beauty of videos and games is that if you switch off you can reboot and watch 'Boobah' which makes more sense than Brexit and is equally detailed in terms of plan.

Anyone else seen that YouGov poll from Conservative party members ?
Guess they need to drop ‘Unionist’ out of their name if 63% would be happy to see Scotland leave the union and 59% leave if that’s the price to pay for Brexit.

Not to mention the 61% are happy if it means significant damage to the economy!!!!

Admittedly is a small sample of mainly older male leave voters but even so. Wow.

Just how many Kippers joined the Tories and was every single one of them in that survey !!!!

Adam Bienkov @ adambienkov
Rory Stewart won the Channel 4 Conservative leadership debate according to a new Opinium poll.

Among those who watched it, 47% say he did best.

Overall Stewart is seen as the best candidate for PM among viewers, ahead of Hunt in second place and Johnson in third.

I've already said this, but this poll has a bloody huge cavet, which is glaring: leavers / Johnson supporters didn't watch the debate.

James Forsyth @jgforsyth
Both the Stewart and Javid campaigns confident of getting over the 33 vote mark. Something, doesn’t add up…

Tamara Cohen @tamcohen
According to one of his backers just now, so is Raab. Unless the top three are going backwards....

Someone in the Tory Parliamentary Party is lying....

(my tip for tonight, watch out for Gove's performance)

Not being able to add up seems to be at the root of many Tory party problems...

{Something, doesn’t add up…}

Practically everything about Brexit doesn't add up.
It's like the contents of Westminster have spent the last 3 years or more totally 'rat arsed' and haven't looked outside the front door while thinking that it is all just a video game. All 'diplomacy' has departed.

Will Gove even make it to tonight somebody is leaking votes ?

Can we have a PM who doesn't lick the arse of a racist POTUS

Sebastian Payne @SebastianePayne
Morning folks! It’s the second round of voting in the Tory leadership contest today.

Here is the state of play via
@FinancialTimes tracker - with @andrealeadsom backing Boris Johnson and @DLidington rallying behind Rory Stewart

Johnson's team are focused on holding onto the 114 MPs they have - he's already into the final two assuming non drift away (can't imagine @GavinWilliamson will let that happen).
[RTB: note it's an anonymous ballot, Williamson won't have as much power as in the HoC as whip]

Jeremy Hunt's team are expecting to go up "a couple" of MPs later today but no big gains. Were he to go backwards from the first round, it would be curtains for his campaign.

Sajid Javid's team think he might "squeak through" tonight but they are nervous about whether he'll survive tomorrow. If Javid drops out, all the other campaigns think it's a cert he will back Boris.

Sources on Michael Gove's team say they're "confident" he'll make it through the vote. They're also looking forward to the BBC debate with @maitlis at 8pm - prime territory for life-long debater Gove to do well.

Dominic Raab is thought to be the most at risk of not making the cut tonight. His team say they're "quietly confident" of bagging the five extra MPs to make the 33 threshold.

And Rory Stewart, who needs 14 additional MPs, is hopeful of making the cut too. An insider on his team said "I think we're there". Other campaigns think he has enough MPs.

Hmmm...

It's like the contents of Westminster have spent the last 3 years or more totally 'rat arsed' and haven't looked outside the front door while thinking that it is all just a video game. All 'diplomacy' has departed.

Spot on [whisky]

.

Overall Stewart is seen as the best candidate for PM among viewers, ahead of Hunt in second place and Johnson in third.

So, Johnson beats Gove, Javid, and Raab even among people who back anyone but him? In fairness to Raab I doubt many of his supporters watched either what with it being C4. Maybe all the Gove supporters were watching Countryfile? Would love it if Gove got knocked out before tonight.

Basil lots of ERG type Tories been making noises about Scotland having a right to Independence if they really want it for a while. In the same way I don't back SNP Independent / In Europe because it is logically inconsistent but would consider Independent / Outside Europe.

The caveat is that I don't think Scotland would vote for Independence once Brexit is done and I don't think they do either.

No country can do well completely on its own, unless it's a superpower

It's a matter of what influence / power a small country has in matters that seriously affect them

Scotland is forever over ridden by English decisions, e.g. Brexit, Trident

whereas Ireland has shown how the E27 will support a small country, even against the overall economic interests of the 450 million in the other 26

This is what Tory Brexiters totally failed to understand from before the ref and are continuing to fantasise about

Of the hardcore Brexiters, I would much prefer Gove
(it's like preferring the least harmful STI)

He seems to understand the issues and to indulge in fewer delusions about renegotiating

He would probably carry out the least harmful Brexit for the country
And manage the effects better than the other hard cases

Of course, if the criterion is which Tory leader would most likely destroy the Tory party, or at least make them unelectable for a generation,
then the choice is BJ

Raab is very ignorant & equally nasty,
but he doesn't have BJ's penchant for making outrageous insult or statements of the cuff that can harm British interests & citizens

Bigchoc you are in grave danger of sassinachsplaining.

If Tom Watson and co ever succeed with coup Mark 3 I won't be voting Labour. I can usually choose SNP or Green or even some variant of Socialist Worker in my constituency. About 1/3 of SNP / Green voters are Brexiters according to Prof Curtice.

Can we have a PM who doesn't lick the arse of a racist POTUS

I must admit to finding it remarkable that Javid is being toured to even consider backing PoundlandTrump if he's knocked out today or tomorrow.

I'm also appauled at just how much journalists have focused on his ethnicity and opinions on ethnicity (Krishnan Guru Murthy didn't ask any of the others questions about this in the same way the other night)

It's highlighted racism whether unwitting or deliberate to me.

This is a reason for NOT wanting Stewart in the final two

www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2019/06/next-tory-leader-run-offs-johnson-tops-them-javid-improves-his-position-and-stewart-is-bottom.html
Next Tory Leader run-offs. Johnson tops them, Javid improves his position – and Stewart is bottom.

If it was Stewart v Johnson and Stewart gets thrashed it closes the door on any idea of more moderate voices being listened to within the party.

Worth reflecting on.

In some ways you want him to open up a debate then to lose with a certain amount of dignity before the last two...

Tom Watson says he's met Labour supporters "with tears in their eyes" who won't vote for the party now because of its stance on Brexit.

A bit hyperbolic, but certainly chimes here as a non Labour supporter that wants a credible opposition to the horror show of Tory Brexit.

I would imagine the ERG would be keener on Scotland if they had a solid 50 Westminster MPs sat there though.

A bit more on Scottish Tory positioning in Leadership race.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-48675043

The earlier article linked to on "How Brexit broke team Ruth" is also interesting and touches on the splits in Scottish Labour and the SNP. (there is a good deal of cynicism among SNP voters and for the most part they allow NS and co to present a monochrome position as long as it furthers their various particular long term agenda).

After the Euros 1 Labour MSP resigned the front bench because he backs a 2nd Ref and another resigned because he doesn't. They are a shambles atm and treated Kezia appallingly over the defamation case.

Well they should be damn grateful for the 12 they've got. If they didn't have them then the DUP wouldn't be able to get them over the line.

Basil that is part of the reason Labour no longer has 50 solid Scottish seats. Too many Blairites taking Scottish voters for granted while endlessly ingratiating themselves with English LibDem / Soft Tory swingers. Tom Watson is making exactly the same mistake with "The North" atm imho.

I've just had a big expensive looking pro-Farage leaflet through my door here in Scotland. What are they playing at and who is financing it?
It supposedly comes from "Europe of Freedom and Direct Democracy" - group in the EU Parliament - and has Farage's as ever self-satisfied face on it. Apparently what Scotland really thinks about the EU is:
No to more EU laws, to the Euro, to an EU fisheries policy, and Yes to a United Kingdom.