Westministenders: Hustings and Humilation

[RedToothBrush]

Round 1 has passed.
Boris is winning. But these are the Tories. Surprises might yet happen.

But the chances are the lying buffon is full speed ahead to be the next PM. As long as he manages to keep his mouth shut.

Unfortunately being Prime Minister involves talking. This might prove to be something that bursts the BorisMania rather rapidly.

A GE is still very much on the cards.

And we might face the Constitutional and undemocratic shutting down of parliament to satisfy the Tory Faithless.

Meanwhile the EU couldn't give less shits. They just think we are wasting the time we were granted in good faith.

31st October beckons with No Deal.

Yet Britain had a fair number of battles with the Dutch who are regarded as a Protestant nation - although the south tends to be Catholic. Northern Germany was the cradle of the Reformation - it doesn't quite stack up.

Britain elects @britainelects
Westminster voting intention:

BREX: 24% (-2)
CON: 21% (+4)
LAB: 21% (+2)
LDEM: 19% (-3)

via @YouGov
Chgs. w/ 10 Jun

It does in the sense that from the Reformation onwards, the U.K. was genuinely in danger of being invaded by richer catholic empires. And the danger of a catholic on the throne was that it could lead to that or at least a catholic alliance.

The battles with the Dutch were essentially over trade. But phrases such as Dutch Courage, Going Dutch, Double Dutch, which date back to those wars, attest to England’s ready mistrust of foreigners.

Well at that rate we would be on for a very hung Parliament - my fantasy of the 4 parties getting 145 seats apiece and the SNP sweeping the Board in Scotland, with PC and a few others making up the numbers.

Maybe then they might realise that what the country wants is a genuine Coalition to sort the mess out.

{Maybe then they might realise that what the country wants is a genuine Coalition to sort the mess out.}

With the obvious problem is that no one has the charisma, intelligence and wisdom to actually carry this off and actually bring things together. They are all still playing the 'how high can I piss up a wall' contest.

The (hard) right think the EU is a socialist institution, stifling business and commerce with red tape. The (hard) left think it a capitalist enterprise, favouring business at the expense of the workers.
Hence the divide.

@ragged has just posted this on one of the other Brexit threads.

I hope they don't mind me copying and pasting it in here, as I thought the simile was so beautifully expressed - and very much in tune with the Westminstenders threads

From EU perspective, UK Crashing out of the Union is like this threat:
"If I stab myself I will bleed on your carpet!"

Ridiculous negotiating strategy.

Stanley Johnson on radio now saying "EU desperately NEED a deal." If 'desperate' is a key leverage point, who is most desperate in this situation? Does being the most 'desperate' make you the stronger or weaker negotiating partner?

cackle your click link doesn't work

If the SNP do get a clean sweep in Scotland again or close to one and there is another hung Parliament, then I would imagine the SNP will demanding agreement to a Section 30 notice as a condition for any C&S support. But I only see them doing that with a Centre/Left grouping. Don't see them prepared to do anything with the Conservatives and definitely not with the Turquoise Party - so that rules out any right wing grouping.

With the obvious problem is that no one has the charisma, intelligence and wisdom to actually carry this off and actually bring things together

Does this mean we need a second referendum? I want one but I’m really scared of how divisive it will be and I’m scared of the outcome.

I feel like I always sound like a negative Nelly on here but...we won't be getting a 2nd ref before Oct 31st unless the Tory party pick us someone who has openly offered it - are there any? No.

PV or GE were the 2 things EU might, MIGHT give us an extension for, and frankly it doesn't seem we will get either.

I don't actually see any way Parliament can stop No Deal for all of their voting against/for it. It is the legal default from having no option other than the WA. I know Rory the Tory said he'd make everyone carry on as normal if Parliament was prorogued but in all honesty whoever is PM next just needs to sit on their fat arse for 6 weeks once the school hols have finished and do zilch.

ThereWillBeAdequateFood
What people want and what they can have are, as we all realise different things entirely. The UK is searching out in the street for something that they lost under the sofa and as such may never find it.
So many things have been 'promised' that taken overall are often mutually exclusive that until any sense or reality bites (probably by crashing out) there can be no way forward. The obvious problem being that there is only one life and crashing out will be the end of whatever we had. Climate change and the probability of a 'significant' war, changing the world order, (not necessarily the UK specifically) will alter any sort of recovery from a crash out.
In WW2 a ridiculous amount of the worlds resources were 'wasted', blowing things up and so on. The planet cannot keep 'supplying' materials that mankind is wasting.
In the grand scheme, the activities of the UK are near insignificant, as it represents less than 0.1% of the worlds population.

Drifting OT, but just done the worst YouGov survey ever. Which considering I've been a member for over 15 years is saying something.

A lot of statements of "fact" about drugs that are essentially a shill for the status quo.

If they're using the same methodology for weather I would urge you to look out the window instead. It'll be far more reliable.

Does this mean we need a second referendum? I want one but I’m really scared of how divisive it will be and I’m scared of the outcome.

In my opinion, we’re already bitterly divided and the worst outcome would be for the people to vote to leave with no deal. So it couldn’t get any worse that the current default option, and might actually end up with a remain outcome, which would obviously make me very happy!

www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jun/15/kenneth-clarke-bring-down-no-deal-government

At least someone can talk sense.

I think the entrenched resistance of Remainers has been a key here. I'm guessing a lot of Tories have gambled that after 3 years, they would have "got over it" and gone back to being the obedient little lapdogs the Tories see voters as.

The fact there's a new generation that are holding onto Brexit and letting it fester is something they simply can't deal with. Especially as time goes on and they start to think about their own seats.

The great thing about Farage in that respect is that whilst he might energise the die-hard Brexiteers, he seems to have a similar effect on Remainers.

Funny how Brexiteers have told us so many times how Leaving is part of their soul, and yet they can't accept that for many, Remaining is the same

I see Jeremy Hunt has managed to get counselling for being called nasty names and is now telling the EU how they are going to renegotiate the WA.

I am having a really low morning today. The more I read about Johnson the more depressed I get.

are there any?

There was Sam Gyimah (have I spelt that right?), before he dropped out.

That Fail link reminds us again:

"The last two will then face an electorate of more than 160,000 Tory members,
after a surge of new members who signed up ahead of the contest were deemed eligible to vote by party chiefs."

I suspect most will be from the far right / extreme Brexiters who have an open campaign of entryism into the Tory party
A small % of new members will be Remainers, including a couple of Westministenders ! - but imo heavily outnumbered

There have been media headlines for years about far left entryism into the Labour Party
Funny how the far more significant entryism - into a much smaller Tory party - receives hardly any attention

I'm increasing from 1% to 5% my estimation of the chance that May will Revoke before standing down as PM
Still v unlikely

My other very forlorn hope is that one of Boris's scandals nails him before the vote goes to members
e.g. overseas media reveal his juicy NDA, so enough people in the UK find out for the NDA to collapse, so UK media decide to print it

Not looking much chance of avoiding PM Boris
What Brexit has brought us down to

Boris has a majority in Uxbridge of 5,034
which was 10.8% of votes cast
That would normally take a big swing to topple him in a GE, but if Farage splits the righwing vote, then that is possible.

His constituency is one of those which (according to polls) have switched from Leave to Remain,
which is likely one reason his majority was halved compared to 2015

Before a GE, he would be the PM with the smallest personal majority since 1924.

Why Tory MPs - and Boris if he becomes leader - might be nervous about a GE:

• The 2017 GE showed how even a massive Tory lead can vanish

• 53 Tory MPs have majorities of under 5,000 votes

• 40 Tory MPs have a majority of 5% or less

• Labour came 2nd in 35 of them, LDems in 3, SNP in 2

• 20 of those seats have majority of 2.5% or under

FFS - now Hunt is suggesting that the EU will renegotiate the WA. Why are they all seemingly unable to grasp that no is a complete sentence?

OublietteBravo
Exactly!

....because they don't come on to MN to learn that