Tony Connelly: A no-deal Brexit and Northern Ireland
Superb analysis of NI trade & scenarios, very long & detailed
MUCH worse economic prospect for NI than even GB
https://www.rte.ie/news/analysis-and-comment/2019/0614/1055418-double-whammy-a-no-deal-brexit-and-northern-ireland/
Concern has been deepening within the North’s civil service and export sector.
Senior officials in Belfast have been writing increasingly frantic letters to Whitehall
to raise the alarm and to educate key elements of the British political and administrative systems.
....
Given the peculiar make up of the North’s economy, structured as it is around the SME and agri-food sector,
and the very tight supply chains that embrace not just the Irish Republic but Great Britain as well,
the effects could be devastating.
.....
Food industry sources depict a perfect storm:
tightly integrated, just-in-time food supply chains broken within weeks,
millions of litres of milk being stranded,
Northern traders being priced out of the GB market if cheaper South American meat starts to roll in,
EU products being channelled through Dublin Port and into Great Britain via Belfast in order to avoid UK tariffs,
traffic congestion disrupting the narrow delivery window for Northern Irish suppliers to UK supermarkets and so on.
None of this includes the disruption to cross-border services,
a much higher value trade flow, including all-island legal and financial services.
"In the absence of the backstop you will have the complete collapse in the exchange of data north and south,
the inability to recognise mutual professional qualifications,"
.....
Not only will there be an incentive for Irish beef producers to send beef north in order to avoid the Holyhead tariff, and then on to Great Britain through the back door of Belfast Port,
there would, in theory, be nothing to stop any other member state producer doing the same via Dublin.
.....
On 5 March David Sterling, the head of the Northern Ireland Civil Service, wrote to political parties warning that disruption would be "severe".
The economic and social effects would be "profound and lasting".