Westminstenders: Tory Natural Selection

[RedToothBrush]

Here we go again...

Because a General Election after a change of Tory leader worked so well last time ....

It's all so grim that I can't even properly revel in the fact that Leadsom and McVey have been ditched.

I actually feel like I'm back in Bobby Ewing dream time. This can't be true.

Ditto Earl ...particularly because I'm now imagining them both back in Cabinet with Francois, Deadwood et al.

Conservative Home poll allegedly has Rory the Tory as #2 behind Bojo ... but that's among party members

Sadly, he is most unlikely to even survive the next round among MPs

I agree, he may be the next but 1 or 2 Tory leader, who will be called on to revive the corpse of the Tory party 2-3 years after a No Deal crash
They'll first double down on disaster after Boris goes, as they did when selecting IDS, but eventually they'll look f
or a Rory-shaped lifeboat

I don't think the Tory's would extend their majoring a GE but we would get a fair few Brexit party mps, the only way Labour could gain a majority government is if they get rid of Corbyn and replace with a more appealing leader such as Kier Starmer.

Yay! Just to improve my day they've got Chris Grayling on bbc news.

Oops actually last supermarket shop was 11/4 just before the second deadline. Still a long time ago though!

I agree with pretty, Boris if he wins will call a GE asap.

* If Brexit goes badly wrong, the Tory Party will ‘double down,’ Justice Secretary David Gauke predicts*

Yep, but Boris would soon run away when he sees the hurricane coming
Who would be an even worse PM to follow Boris ?
Bridgen ? JRM ? Patel ?

https://www.politico.eu/article/david-gauke-uk-justice-secretary-warm-beer-and-the-existential-brexit-threat-to-uk-tories/

Gauke’s central argument is that the main driver of populism is cultural, not economic.

“For a lot of people politics stopped being about economics and prosperity because they weren’t overly worried about that — it was more about culture and identity than prosperity.”
< The wealthy and the better off pensioners may not worry about prosperity, but all the other Leavers too ? >

He’s worried about the effects of a culture war.
“I think you end up in a tit-for-tat situation where the country becomes more and more divided,”
....
“I think there are a couple of scenarios where it is very, very hard for the Conservative Party,” he says.

“If we don’t deliver Brexit at all it will be really hard for the Conservative Party to hold together.”
This is doomsday scenario one, but the alternative option is almost as bad, he fears.

“If we do leave without a deal, the likely outcome is that the Conservative Party becomes very committed to the decision to leave without a deal and, curiously, the worse it gets ...

I don’t think the response of the Conservative Party will be to go ‘sorry, we got this one wrong, terribly sorry, turned out you were right, let’s reverse the decision.’

The decision will be to double down.
That’s where the Conservative Party will go, I fear.”

So, it'll be quite some time after a No Deal Brexit before the Tories stop believing that the EU will dump Ireland or wreck the SM, just because the UK govt demands it

If he does call a GE, I'd really love it if we could kick all Conservative MPs out of Scotland - including Fluffy, who for long enough was the only Conservative MP in Scotland.

So that's -13 for the Conservatives before they even begin

“I fear that we would be in an environment where we drive the car into the wall but it will be the wall’s fault”

Arguably Rory the Tory is a reconstructionist. (see his CV).

This might well be merely a spring board to that and that his intention from the outset.

Rory the Tory has scored well amongst people in DH social circle who I expect to be very much Labour types (and not necessarily blairites at that), when he has remarked about him and shown them what he's put out on social media. (they aren't politically minded in the slightest and it was something that came up in conversation).

Rory can definitely reach parts other Tories can't, but he can't reach parts that Boris can. I guess how demographics change and politics progress over the next couple of years (particularly with reference to identifying who holds the balance of power in a GE) could be interesting.

A pm who has experience of Warzones might well be a real asset for all the wrong post Brexit reasons.

Gauke’s central argument is that the main driver of populism is cultural, not economic.

“For a lot of people politics stopped being about economics and prosperity because they weren’t overly worried about that — it was more about culture and identity than prosperity.”

He's right....

pretty Main thing for Scotland imo is to avoid electing any Faragist MP

The Electoral Calculus seat predictor has the SNP back on 55 seats when I have previously plugged in various polls

Probably not that good, but I admit I would cheer for you

We've discussed before that this is a culture war, in the US as well

No longer left vs right but "liberals" vs authoritarians

Lovely old wall... what's that wall doing there?

I so so wish I could leave the UK before it all kicks off. Tory implosion, Brexit fallout... and whatever else is coming our way with all this neverending stream of bad news.

No longer left vs right but "liberals" vs authoritarians

So right bigchoc I’m sure Brexit is all about authoritarian urges.

It’s all about “take back control” authoritarians know the U.K. can’t control the EU. Being a highly influential member with a veto simply isn’t good enough. They want to feel like they are in control.

When May wanted an election Labour said “bring it on”. If Boris wants one, they will say it again. It might not work for them this time though, I think that was peak Corbyn.
The only good thing is that if so, the Conservatives entirely own Brexit and its consequences.

Would the blue rinse Tory membership approve of Boris's extra marital affairs?

The question with an early election would be what about the Brexit party splitting the vote? Both Farage and Johnson have big egos - I can't see either of them co-operating with each other.

I think we may well end up with another hung parliament - but with the Conservatives still as the largest party

I was amazed at work today that
my German colleagues raised the subject of the Tory leadership elections and knew that there were 10 candidates !

(and were not impressed by any )

Yet another reminder that those in the EU have far more knowledge of UK affairs than the reverse
and that's just ordinary educated professionals
Not much chance of kidding the leaders

Would the blue rinse Tory membership approve of Boris's extra marital affairs?

Approve ? They'd probably queue up to offer themselves to him.

Not quite sure why some people believe the Tories aren't a bunch of hypocritical cunts.

Lewis Goodall
@lewis_goodall
It now seems very likely we'll have our 20th Old Etonian as prime minister.
In our entire parliamentary history, we've been governed by an Old Etonian as PM for 101 years out of 298.
So 34% of the time.
Whatever their individual merits... this country is absurd.

^^ makes me want to grab a pitchfork and shin up the gates of the Winter Palace.