Westministenders: Another Thread, another Shit Show. Its Trump Week

[RedToothBrush]

That is all.

Oaken I saw that poll and have a horrible feeling that if I have to vote tactically in next GE to stop a BXP becoming my MP. I may have to vote conservative. After all they have done it’s a hideous thought.

The caveat being I would have to trust whoever was PM will not do some hideous coalition with them.

I really hope this situation changes.

Basil - most Con MPs would go into coalition with Farage, just look at how previous "moderate" MPs are becoming hardline ERG types just so they can become the next PM.

@Basilpots

By voting Tory you’d get Farage... In the new world we’re in, please don’t assume that because the Tories won in your seat last time (which is why I’m presuming you’re thinking of voting Tory) they stand the best chance in any forthcoming election. Just look at the Euro elections.... Tories in a poor 5th place!

Hasn't there been debate on here as to whether NF actually would Brexit? I wonder what would happen if they won a GE? (I really would have to find some way to leave the country if this happened.)

Bearing in mind UKIP disintegrated pretty quickly, I'd expect BXP to do the same.

Dear God this is all so depressing.

@BigChocFrenzy

I’m intrigued as to how the algorithms works in that analysis. It can’t simply be to adjust from the last election (ie if Tories got 40% and they’re on track to get 17% this time so we’ll reduce all their vote shares by 23%), otherwise the BP would score 26% in every seat... which is hardly conducive to getting 300+ seats, even if other parties are split.

Trump is feeding the Brexiter fantasy / lie that No Deal will be a reset button, to sweep away tiresome obligations of the exit bill and the backstop

That's why No Deal is so attractive to many Brexit voters - and shamefully to some ignorant politicians too

They want to be like a deadbeat dad moving out, leaving debts behind and avoiding any CM payments or further contact with the kids.

Unfortunately, that deadbeat dad relies on EU trade & agencies to keep his standard of living
Also, the EU can and will go to the ICJ over unpaid bills, like Farage's pension

The UK would become that dodgy neighbour down the road that everyone talks about and is very cautious about doing business with

Hi people it did caveat by saying it would depend who PM is we could be several Tory PMs down the line if by some miracle they hang on until 2022.

Obviously if Raab or someone is in charge my vote will go nowhere near them. I’m not hell bent on self destruction.

oakenbeach Some info about their models:

www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/psephology.html

But Leavers will soon be on here to say how dare we call Farage a Fascist.

Some Tories have huge majorities so the polls don't necessarily tell the whole story. Farage topped the poll in the last euro elections, but Cameron won a majority the following year. Still, that was then.

I often think that how I feel is how opponents of Hitler must have felt, or East Europeans when the iron curtain closed them in. We have to grit our teeth and carry on.

Farage was asked about BXP's education policy in Peterborough yesterday (education a v big issue in the town). He immediately became very tetchy and defensive and totally avoided engaging. He basically said ' ask my candidate the millionaire businessman he's local'.

I did post a health warning both about polls and about seat calcs

The predictions by pollsters for the EP elections weren't brilliant, but weren't seriously off either

So I regard them as at least ballpark figures, untill we get a GE or 2 to validate the GE models too.

We can only look at Farage's long history of far right views

Expect the worst on open racism like Trump,
also slashing the NHS, maternity rights, BF rights, workers rights, benefits, the environment etc

Call me naïve but doesn't Mike Greene have to have some sort of policies as a candidate ? Other than Brexit?

Sadly with the destruction of trade union rights a lot of people who lose employment and maternity rights will just shrug, and say it used to be better.

Oaken problem is in my constituency it’s usually a straight choice between red/blue with blue a comfortable majority.

In the last euro elecs my constituency BXP had more votes than all other parties put together and even UKIP managed not to come last. In referendum 67% voted to leave. My constituency will be one that BXP will target I am sure and not all those votes are disaffected Tory’s those votes are coming from Labour too. At my most optimistic I hope that BXP splits vote enough for someone else to get in.

BXP candidates should be asked about education at every opportunity
www.indy100.com/article/brexit-party-mike-greene-peterborough-by-election-radio-4-interview-8912781

BXP candidates should be asked about anything but Brexit.

We are more than well aware of their policies on that subject.

People voted in Ann Widdecombe, her views are very well known on a variety of subjects, Farage said before the EU election, he is in favour of ripping up the sacred NHS.... people still voted for Farage/BRX.

Like Trump, he now has a v.large base that will vote for him whatever he says or does.

The multiplicity of parties reduces the impact of tactical voting ...

cui bono ?

Incidentally, this popped up on my Facebook. It's free ,,,,,

www.eventbrite.co.uk/e/rethinking-democracy-can-democracy-survive-in-the-digital-age-tickets-62353651450

Description

Rethinking Democracy: Can democracy survive in the digital age?

Democratic politics is once again under attack – this time from populist nationalists, authoritarian rulers and new forms of political communication.

It was not meant to be like this. Join us for the second launch event for Rethinking Democracy, an important new collection of essays edited by Andrew Gamble and Tony Wright, in which leading academics explores the problems of democracy and suggests ways it might now be extended and deepened.

In this event, jointly hosted by the Political Quarterly and the Kings Policy Institute, Helen Margetts (Professor of Internet and Society at the University of Oxford) will discuss how social media might be used to stabilise political systems and contribute to democratic renewal, and Martin Moore (Senior Lecturer in Political Communication at Kings College London) will explore how we can protect democratic legitimacy in a digital age. Bobby Duffy (Professor of Public Policy and Director of the Policy Institute, Kings College London) will chair the event.

Copies of the book will be on sale at a special discounted price of £11.99 (we can accept cash or card payments).

There are more Rethinking Democracy launch events being held in 2019. Find out what they are.

Please note: this is a free event, which means we overbook to allow for no-shows and to avoid empty seats. While we generally do not have to turn people away, this does mean we cannot guarantee everyone a place. Admission is on a first come, first served basis.

Additional reading:

‘Rethinking Democracy’, Andrew Gamble and Tony Wright (Political Quarterly blog).

‘Rethinking Democracy with Social Media’ – Helen Margetts, Rethinking Democracy, ed by Andrew Gamble and Tony Wright (Political Quarterly Monograph Series, 2019).

‘”Online harms” to our digital democracy are still being largely ignored’ – Martin Moore (OpenDemocracy)

Farage and the Brexit party are being elevated in order to influence the Tory Leader vote.

The thinking behind it is that, if they give a show of how popular Farage as PM is supposed to be (and where did that idea suddenly come from, I wonder?), the Tories will elect a candidate that is pro-Brext and further to the right.

Tanith agree up until the referendum Brexit wasn’t even a word. It was a minority sport played by UKIP and a minority in the Tory party.

Brexit is the result of a boil that has been allowed to fester for decades.
Unwarranted UK 'exceptionalism' and constant eurosceptic press have 'done' for the UK.

Unfortunately my PMK 🐈 isn’t as svelte and elegant as prettybird’s boys.