Westministenders: Another Thread, another Shit Show. Its Trump Week

[RedToothBrush]

That is all.

May will continue as PM until a new Tory leader can command the confidence of the HoC
i.e. can win the NC vote that Corbyn will call

Even counting the DUP, May only has a majority of about 4

Q: How will the Tories decide in advance if the new leader can win the NC vote ?

A: presumably by asking every Tory MP - and bunging asking each DUP what they want - and maybe Kate Hoey too

Q: will every MP keep their word - and can the Tories count accurately ?
A: 🙄

Q: What happens if Boris, as expected, becomes leader - will enough Tories keep their word and refuse to vote for him ?
A: 🙄
Boris as leader may cause a GE, or MPs may back down if they think there is a risk Farage could become PM; or hold the balance of power

lonelytired imo, Bercow over-estimates the HoC and / or his own power
The HoC has anyway not performed well so far

The only way to avoid No Deal is either Revoke or the WA
Both options have insufficient support in the HoC

All the HoC might do is to try to delay until one has support,
e.g. more A50 extensions

or try to get a different HoC / PM
e.g. NC and a GE - but Farage would gain some, maybe many, MPs

How No Deal could happen:

• There is a GE before 31 October, which returns a majority of MPs for No Deal e.g. Farage becomes PM or gains a lot of seats

+The EU could refuse an extension after 31 October
If not this time, then at some stage

• The new PM could refuse to ask for one
  the HoC can't force him to genuinely ask - he could threaten the EU with wrecking EU proceedings, budget etc if they grant it

• The new PM and Corbyn could suddenly agree to a GE, to be held early November
  Difficult for Labour MPs to vote aainst this
  So Parliament - with little prior notice - is dissolved for 5 weeks until after Brexit happens

PMK. I de-regged and have chosen a shorter version of my former name but I'm still loving his ties. I just cba with such a long name as only use this one for the brexit threads.

I haven't kept up. LO is still going round bellowing "clear the lobby!"

The news is too full of trump and not brexit and I've lost track of what's happening.

Is May gone as of tomorrow?

Nope, May says she will stay as PM until a new Tory leader has the votes to win an NC in the HoC

The thought of Farage as PM terrifies me.

@BigChocFrenzy but I thought she was resigning as of tomorrow? I'm confused

When's the bad news from Peterborough expected?

Christ, I'd managed to wipe the by-election from my memory. Weird day today, in fairness!

In the early hours of the morning.

Bercow She's only resigning as party leader, not as PM

She'll remain PM until a new party leader is elected and - so she says - until they "have the confidence of the HoC",

which means until they are sure of winning the vote of No Confidence that Corbyn says he will call for a new PM

Result expected about 4am
but we should get an exit poll v soon

Ah crap. I had it all wrong. Thanks for explaining.

I hope this is true !
but maybe they are just talking down expectations

Britain Elects@britainelects

Brexit Party activists conceding defeat, telling us Labour's probably just pipped it.

I hope that's true too. Should take some wind out of their sails. Briefly. NF has enough wind for it to not affect him, sadly.

Even though Raab is likely #2 with MPs, he is unpopular with voters
Boris way ahead of the field

Britain Elects@britainelects

On who would make the best Tory leader:

Boris Johnson: 32%
Michael Gove: 11%
Sajid Javid: 9%
Jeremy Hunt: 9%
Andrea Leadsom: 5%
Dominic Raab: 5%
Rory Stewart: 4%

Baffling re the Boris love!

Cherrypi Folks on BritainElects Twitter chatting that it’s a narrow BXP win. No idea what makes them say that Labour people in the constituency apparently reporting having trouble getting their voters out 1/3 to a 1/2 refusing to come out and vote.

Yet at the same time BXP reckon Labour’s core vote has done enough to keep seat. But I remember Farage coming out at referendum and and conceding thar remain had won so I don’t necessarily trust them.

In short nobody really knows.

Not safe yet then....

Did you hear about the Queen's Tiara?

She wore her Burmese Ruby Tiara which she very rarely wears to meet Trump. The tiara is said to guard the wearer "not only against illness, but also against evil".

Do you think she was playing hat games again?

hides

If Labour do win tonight, the real winners will be the LibDems.

Why? Because Corbyn will be less likely to cave into those demanding a second referendum.... And come a GE, a Labour Party that is still rudderless on Brexit won’t do especially well, and the LibDems will keep the votes “lent” to them by people who usually vote Labour.

red 😂

'Crowds booing Tories': party leader hopefuls weigh up TV debate risks

We might not have that BBC TV debate on 18 June after all - Tories are worried that a live audience would boo the !

www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jun/06/crowds-booing-tories-party-leader-hopefuls-weigh-up-tv-debate-risks

She surely must have been Red. She's well known for 'commenting' via jewels, isn't she?

Here is where we see if the Faragists have the local infrastructure to get out their voters ...
maybe whether we see if social media can replace this

Harry Cole@MrHarryCole

Labour sources were chipper at close of play in Westminster.

Truth is no one knows.
BP have thumped air war and worked for low turn out euros.

Established parties have better means of getting their vote out and ignoring unfriendlies.

That said Labour candidate beyond dire.
.....
Matthew Thompson@mattuthompson

The ballot boxes are being counted here in Peterborough.

It sounds like it will be a close one.

Brexit Party sources are really worried about the Labour ground game.

It has to be said that if the Brexit Party don't win, and win convincingly in Peterborough then its not a great sign for them.

Peterborough was 61% leave. There aren't many places which are more leave.

And arguably, the Brexit Party (UKIP) has always done much better at lower turnouts than at higher turnout General Elections.

We already suspect that those who turned up for the Euros were the highly motivated types which distorts the national picture for Westminster voting intention. People who vote Tory or Labour were much more likely to think that other issues were important, and those who were apathetic about Brexit, you'd argue to be less likley to turn out for the Euros.

If on the other hand the Brexshit Party do win convincingly, we are never going to hear the end of it. And the Tories will crap themselves even more than they already are.

Twitter is in full expectation management mode.

Every other tweet is saying
'Labour have won'
'Labour haven't won'
'The Brexit Party are going to Westminster'
'Labour have won'
'Labour haven't won'
'The Brexit Party haven't done it'
'The Tories got thrashed'
'Labour have won'
'Oh no the Brexit Party have it'
'Labour have low turnout out in key areas'
'Labour have high turnout in key areas'

I think there is only one of those phrases above that I am completely confident about right now.

That'll be the Tories one, I assume, Red?!