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Brexit
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Westministenders: The Only Election That Matters - The Tory One

964 replies

RedToothBrush · 28/05/2019 15:57

Fallout from the Euro Elections makes for interesting reading for the leadership hopefuls.

Its not a clear cut as some make out. There is still a case for a deal. The trouble is passing it through parliament. And there is no time to do that. Nor no will.

Any new leader's priority isn't going to be a deal. Its going to be avoiding a General Election. And thats going to be hard.

We are also realistically facing the prospect of another extension which France is likely to block leading to no deal or no deal.

Or a 2nd Referendum.

A 2nd Referendum might be the only way to avoid a General Election. And that will still have no deal on the ballot. Of that you can be sure.

Peter Foster of the Telegraph remarked this morning that in fact the only way to a deal now, might well be via no deal, because of all the routes we have exhausted through incompetence. And that will come at a very high price.

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Violetparis · 31/05/2019 08:17

'in a referendum' that should say.

Oakenbeach · 31/05/2019 08:24

Remain leaning parties could win more seats in an election but Leave could win more votes referendum.

True, but the referendum question would be starker than before.... no-deal vs remain. If a majority still voted no-deal after all that, then we’ll just have to do it.

1tisILeClerc · 31/05/2019 08:26

What is needed is a 'grown up' to take the various cabinet members to one side and find out what progress they have made with Brexit plans.
Foxy has some trade deals. Great. When you stack his 7 Billion worth of trade deals with Africa or wherever, how does this compare against 120 Billion with the EU and importantly it is stuff that the UK wants. The UK does not trade cars or staple foods with Africa.
We know that whatever the UK wants to trade with the EU will be more expensive unless new specific trade deals are made.
It is not practical to obtain bulk quantities of anything from the USA quickly or cheaply.

Iambuffy · 31/05/2019 08:26

You know....I'm starting to doubt the sanity of anyone who actively wants to be PM atm...

1tisILeClerc · 31/05/2019 08:34

{Unless the new PM can deliver a renegotiated deal that wins the favour of Farage and the ERG, which frankly is little more than a fantasy, the Tories are screwed.}

We need to knock these fantasy ideas on the head once and for all.
The ONLY new negotiations require the WA to be signed off.
All negotiations involve at least 2 sides and the precondition put up by the EU was because the UK refused to create a WA that was compatible with the basic pillars of the EU so they had to do it.

Spinflight · 31/05/2019 08:35

"You know....I'm starting to doubt the sanity of anyone who actively wants to be PM atm..."

Very true...

One might posit that one might need a cast iron plan to completely blame Theresa May for anything that happened...

Hence watch the video I posted from about 40 minutes in... :)

howabout · 31/05/2019 08:49

Morning Spin Brew

Yep if we don't Brexit by Hallowe'en then Tories are toast.

Re pp on why Bxt Party seat number only went up (compared to UKIP) by marginal amounts in EU elections. They polled about 5% higher (32% versus 27%). In 2014 they were last Party standing and sneaked seats. In contrast in 2019 they were just short of enough votes for an extra seat. (eg SE they polled approx 950k votes for 4 seats but 50k more would have got them the 5th. In the NW Tommy Robinson deprived them of an extra seat. In Scotland they got one seat on 10% vote share but 15% in 2019 wasn't enough extra. Almost everywhere the residual UKIP vote of 3% ish would have helped - why people adding "wasted" Change votes to LibDem is a bit disingenuous)

frumpety · 31/05/2019 08:57

Spin honestly curious as to what you mean by deliver on Brexit ? Do you simply mean leaving the EU or do you mean delivering a workable solution that works well for the UK ?

Songsofexperience · 31/05/2019 09:00

I personally loathe the expression 'deliver Brexit' like it's some great gift to the nation. To me it's more like we're about to deliver the alien baby in the first Alien film...

ThereWillBeAdequateFood · 31/05/2019 09:03

Therewillbeadequatefood the voting systems for a referendum and a genereal election are so different that Remain leaning parties could win more seats in an election but Leave could win more votes referendum

It’s got to be a referendum then.

The more I look at it the more I think it’s going to be a referendum. The Tories won’t want a GE. The sensible people in Labour won’t want one.
I’m just so scared of a no dealer PM letting us crash out in October

LonelyTiredandLow · 31/05/2019 09:04

Am still waiting to hear what kind of Brexit Baby Spin is expecting.

Maybe they haven't had a scan...

1tisILeClerc · 31/05/2019 09:08

{One might posit that one might need a cast iron plan to completely blame Theresa May for anything that happened... }

Blaming anybody will not get the UK out of this mess. Someone being brave and with a decent thought out plan is necessary.
Buggering about taking people to court simply delays things and makes the situation worse.

Leaders of most of the countries around the world have told Theresa and the UK government that it is a bad idea and that it will trash the UK economy. This suggests that they are correct in this view and crucially to the UK, they have the power to MAKE it be true if they wished.
When you enter negotiations the aim is that both parties feel they have a good deal and are happy with it, as most 'deals' are only part of ongoing alliances.
Tweets from Mr Putin are mainly to remind the UK that he is still there. He is happy for the UK to leave as he benefits from disruption in the EU. The USA see it as an opportunity to increase trade with the UK on THEIR terms, the UK buys more from them.

lonelyplanetmum · 31/05/2019 09:10

I personally loathe the expression 'deliver Brexit' like it's some great gift to the nation

So true. It should be:

Inflict Brexit
Foist Faragit
Impose Idioxit

1tisILeClerc · 31/05/2019 09:11

Delivering Brexit is only the first stage of a 10 year project. Crashing out on Oct 31 is basically the UK out on the street in it's pants with NO further plans.

howabout · 31/05/2019 09:21

Stats for Lefties on the latest GE polling:
"I can't even imagine ever being so obsessed with Brexit that I'd vote for the party (Lib Dems) who imposed crushing austerity, slashed public services and kept the Tories in power for 5 years. I just can't imagine having such abysmally poor priorities."

For anyone claiming they moderated the Tories compare and contrast the ability of the DUP with only 10 seats to put their foot down.

LonelyTiredandLow · 31/05/2019 09:24

howabout I think you mis-typed 'stats' there.
Or you didn't actually use any.

ThereWillBeAdequateFood · 31/05/2019 09:24

"I can't even imagine ever being so obsessed with Brexit that I'd vote for the party (Lib Dems) who imposed crushing austerity, slashed public services and kept the Tories in power for 5 years. I just can't imagine having such abysmally poor priorities."

Because Brexit will likely cause even worse austerity and will have horrendous cuts to public services.

Spinflight · 31/05/2019 09:25

"Spin honestly curious as to what you mean by deliver on Brexit ? Do you simply mean leaving the EU or do you mean delivering a workable solution that works well for the UK ?"

It's a binary choice, in or out. Deliver means leave.

In the context of this thread the only thing that could save the tory party is the method outlined on the interview.

And yes people will witter on about second referendums, but the Electoral Commission reckons at least 23 weeks needed once legislation passed. Which doesn't work.

Naturally the tory candidates are lying about trying to renegotiate. Theresa May signed the extension with a proviso forbidding using the time to attempt further negotiations. So..... There will be no further negotiations.

The only other possibility would be May's awful deal... Which shouldn't even have gone to a second vote under parliamentary procedure but was rejected 3 times. So I think we can assume that it would be voted down again.

LonelyTiredandLow · 31/05/2019 09:30

This thread has already established the Tory party will not survive. BXP has taken the far right slot in our politics now, and it's a binary choice, in or out. Deliver means leave. is why people are concerned about that. You know, what with our country not usually being run on solely one aim and with a few million people to take into consideration, education, healthcare...

frumpety · 31/05/2019 09:35

Spin the WA isn't a deal though, it is the precursor to the real negotiations regarding trade etc , so it isn't true to say that there can be no more negotiations. We haven't started the most important negotiations in reality, and even if we were to leave with no deal, we would still need to negotiate Smile

Spinflight · 31/05/2019 09:37

"Good news for Remainers - not just " lefties""

Not really...

Yougov didn't prompt for the Brexit Party... Which would significantly lower their actual share.

LonelyTiredandLow · 31/05/2019 09:38
Spinflight · 31/05/2019 09:39

"Spin the WA isn't a deal though, it is the precursor to the real negotiations regarding trade etc , so it isn't true to say that there can be no more negotiations. We haven't started the most important negotiations in reality, and even if we were to leave with no deal, we would still need to negotiate smile"

You aren't wrong.

We'll be negotiating with the EU until it collapses no matter what happens.