Westministenders: The Only Election That Matters - The Tory One

[RedToothBrush]

Fallout from the Euro Elections makes for interesting reading for the leadership hopefuls.

Its not a clear cut as some make out. There is still a case for a deal. The trouble is passing it through parliament. And there is no time to do that. Nor no will.

Any new leader's priority isn't going to be a deal. Its going to be avoiding a General Election. And thats going to be hard.

We are also realistically facing the prospect of another extension which France is likely to block leading to no deal or no deal.

Or a 2nd Referendum.

A 2nd Referendum might be the only way to avoid a General Election. And that will still have no deal on the ballot. Of that you can be sure.

Peter Foster of the Telegraph remarked this morning that in fact the only way to a deal now, might well be via no deal, because of all the routes we have exhausted through incompetence. And that will come at a very high price.

Referendum may be only way out of Brexit deadlock, says Hammond

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/may/30/new-referendum-may-be-only-way-to-break-brexit-deadlock-says-hammond

Chancellor tells candidates for party leadership that backing no deal could mean losing no-confidence vote^
....
Hammond had previously indicated he would not run to be Tory leader,
but hinted that he might change his mind if his views were not properly represented by another candidate

Word is it is going to show LD 24%, BXP 22%, Lab 19%, Con 19%.

Very interesting indeed! Interesting that 1/3 of Brexit vote at the EU elections seems to rebound back to the Tories at GE, with far less rebound for Labour..... That could really screw both the Brexit and Tory chances of seats and help Lib Dem’s chances of seats as they come through the middle in those areas. It also shows that the Lib Dem vote amongst those who would more naturally be Labour isn’t quite as soft as many thought.

The Electoral Calculus figures are interesting, and show how concentrated Labour votes are (has always been that way - back in 1983 they only got 27%, yet got 200+ seats) but it’s far too crude to take at face value. If the Lib Dems and Greens are sensible - and I’m hopeful they will be - they’ll realise this is potentially a once-in-a-century opportunity (and I don’t think I’m exaggerating) to change the old order and will cooperate closely, not competing and thereby maximising seats.

The situation is clearly incredibly volatile at the moment though.... it will be interesting to see how (and if) polls settle down in the weeks ahead.

And if Corbyn remains (as I think he will), and continues to equivocate over a referendum (as he seems to be), I expect Labour will stick where it is... That will help the Lib Dem’s significantly as not only will they keep their Labour defectors but will be more attractive to moderate remain voters who, on balance, would prefer the Tories to a Corbyn Government.

Liberal Democrats become most popular party closely followed by Brexit Party, poll suggests

Yep, poll rumours confirmed:

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/liberal-democrats-brexit-party-polls-election-remain-leave-labour-conservative-a8937581.html

The Liberal Democrats have become the most popular party in the country, a poll suggests.

The pro-Remain party has seen its support surge to 24 per cent, closely followed by Nigel Farage’s Brexit Partyy^ at 22 per cent.

A YouGov poll for The Times found the Conservativess^ and Labourr^ had slipped to joint third place, both with 19 per cent.

Mark Pack 🔶
@markpack
First time ever since polling started in 1943 that a voting intention poll for Britain has had neither Labour nor the Conservatives in the top two.

Oakenbeach If the Lib Dems and Greens are sensible - and I’m hopeful they will be - they’ll realise this is potentially a once-in-a-century opportunity (and I don’t think I’m exaggerating) to change the old order and will cooperate closely, not competing and thereby maximising seats.

Someone else is thinking along these lines, too. Petition requesting co-operation between Remain parties:

www.bestforbritain.org/worktogether

BigChocFrenzy

Re: the background of Alex Phillips, the Brexit MEP (that was on QT last night).

Ex UKIP comms, then turned up in Kenya in 2017 helping the Jubilee Party run its election campaign.

Which she denies, but posting photos of yourself with your Jubilee comms team on Instagram is a bit of a giveaway (and even if you delete them, enough people thought it worthy of mentioning and recording at the time).

That, of course, is the election that had to be rerun due to electoral irregularities and interference and led to widespread violence. The election campaign that Cambridge Analytica and Harris Media has its sticky fingerprints all over.

@Tommoriarty16 has an interesting Twitter thread about it, although it seems that you can’t read the Tweet where she denies working for Jubilee as she has deleted her Twitter account.

Funny that.

And interesting that Farage specifically referred to rerunning elections in Africa back in April.

An election annulled because of irregularities that one of his own MEPs helped deliver?

The only chance the Tories have is to deliver on brexit, but most of the candidates appear to be lying about how they will achieve this.

You see PMTM signed up to some conditions when she illegally saught an extension, one of which was that no further negotiations would take place.

Hence those MPs who mention negotiations are... Being typical tories.

There is however one way that a new tory leader could exit the EU overnight... As per this interview with Robin Tilbrook who is taking the government to court over illegally extending Article 50.

Anneli Howard doesn’t give Tilbrook’s case much chance:

Put simply, Parliament has considered and legislated for a variable “exit date”, so the requirements for further Parliamentary authorisation are not triggered.

Parliament has already authorised the Executive to amend the EUWA to reflect the terms of any extension sought and granted.

Mr Tilbrook needs to persuade the Court he has an arguable case that should proceed to a full hearing. He is likely to fail, both on the papers and when he applies to renew his application. This has nothing to do with his perspective on Brexit, but because his case is so weak on the law.

endthechaos.co.uk/blog/the-tilbrook-case-is-about-polemical-and-not-legal-argument/

He deals with that objection in the interview...

In fact she might be one of the two barristers that he mentions!

From SKY news this morning. This is one way to focus minds and keep the cabinet in order:
Leavers who want an isolationist self ruling UK should bear this in mind.

{The second summit between Kim Jong Un and Donald Trump ended in failure back in February, with the two leaders walking away from negotiations in Hanoi due to a dispute over sanctions.
South Korean newspaper the Chosun Ilbo said Kim Hyok Chol, the special North Korean envoy to the US, and other officials who carried out working-level talks during the summit were held responsible by Pyongyang for its collapse and were killed as part of a massive purge in March.}

The only chance the Tories have is to deliver on brexit

The opposite is true, no-deal brexit wrecks the economy and though the retired might not care, the 30m plus in work will, it will also split their party.
A WA type Brexit, means ever growing support for the remain backing LD's, if it could ever get through the HoC, more dead lock, no govt and never ending transition period.

Considering little is likely to happen before October 31st (there is no EU commission, leadership contests, recesses and party conf season) we are 12-14 months away from the start of GE campaigning.

I don't think we'll get a PV (unless Labour do an about turn and surge in the polls) so, the Govt is going to face Revoke, No-deal or seek an extension for a slightly early GE, which Parliament won't vote for........

Its going to come down to what both sides have wanted.

Side note, but I just don't see why anyone at all actually puts stuff on Twitter, especially those in politics. Have they never heard of plausible deniability? 'oh I haven't seen that' 'I don't tweet' surely the most protective phrases in politics? you can always look at Twitter without signing up.

"The opposite is true, no-deal brexit wrecks the economy"

The economy was wrecked by joining the EU... Hence the misery in the mid and late 70s.

Leaving with no deal will unwind the damage.

Regardless if the Tories don't deliver then noone will vote for them, and they know it.

There is no further negotiation possible hence no deal is the only option. There isn't time for a referendum and there isn't the will, nor is there a majority for the WA.

I was thinking if there is a General Election soon and a coalition was formed with parties who support a second referendum, what would happen if Leave won again ? How on earth could a remain supporting coalition countenance implementing the result ?

What is it with all of the Leavers who have hated the country they were born in so much? I was so proud of UK before all of this idiocy.

What Spin did you vote to change? What are you prepared to have change? You must understand that when we leave things will change, so what is it that you are willing to admit is actually going to change as a result?

Btw we were once 5th richest in the world, under EU. We are a very very small island reliant on our service industry. How do you propose we make this work after a No Deal Brexit?

The economy was wrecked by joining the EU... Hence the misery in the mid and late 70s.Leaving with no deal will unwind the damage.

Spot on! Don’t forget, the Queen is a reptilian shape shifter and the moon is made of cheese...

The UK economy was wrecked by joining the EU
That’s nonsense. The UK economy was in relative decline from 1945 to 1972. Others have detailed how aid and opportunities were squandered in those years in an attempt to return to the past glories of Empire.

I was thinking if there is a General Election soon and a coalition was formed with parties who support a second referendum, what would happen if Leave won again ? How on earth could a remain supporting coalition countenance implementing the result ?

I’ve thought of this... I think the only viable option would be for the new Government to resign and for there to be yet another GE.

Shame red Pill seems to be a suppository.
Some quite interesting material badly let down by unprofessional interviewers, suitable for interviewing the latest pop band perhaps.
Taking people to court to achieve what exactly? The UK will probably leave, so pointless.

I think oaken is right, resign and allow in new government.

Is it likely though? The public votes in Remain parties but Leave win a referendum? I guess there’s always “events”

The only chance the Tories have is to deliver on brexit

Unless the new PM can deliver a renegotiated deal that wins the favour of Farage and the ERG, which frankly is little more than a fantasy, the Tories are screwed.

If their leader refuses to countenance a no-deal, the Tories will slump even further from their current level, and they will literally be annihilated at the next election and the Tories will dissolve as a party, let alone a political force.

If their leader pushes for no-deal, the “moderates” (Hammond,Grieve, Letwin et al) will bring down the Government in a vote of no-confidence. The Tories would probably survive this, but they’d be irrevocably split and become a party of the hard-right, our of power and marginalised for at least a generation.

{"The opposite is true, no-deal brexit wrecks the economy"

The economy was wrecked by joining the EU... Hence the misery in the mid and late 70s.
Leaving with no deal will unwind the damage.}

The economy was wrecked by the continual failings of the sovereign UK governments from 1945 to the present day failing to invest in the UK PLC and selling out industry for a quick profit. It probably started well before that with the decline of the British Empire and the despicable way so many were treated to support the British Isles.
Oppression and theft can only work up to a point, and the society that results can never be comfortable with itself.

Therewillbeadequatefood the voting systems for a referendum and a genereal election are so different that Remain leaning parties could win more seats in an election but Leave could win more votes referendum.