Westministenders: The Only Election That Matters - The Tory One

[RedToothBrush]

Fallout from the Euro Elections makes for interesting reading for the leadership hopefuls.

Its not a clear cut as some make out. There is still a case for a deal. The trouble is passing it through parliament. And there is no time to do that. Nor no will.

Any new leader's priority isn't going to be a deal. Its going to be avoiding a General Election. And thats going to be hard.

We are also realistically facing the prospect of another extension which France is likely to block leading to no deal or no deal.

Or a 2nd Referendum.

A 2nd Referendum might be the only way to avoid a General Election. And that will still have no deal on the ballot. Of that you can be sure.

Peter Foster of the Telegraph remarked this morning that in fact the only way to a deal now, might well be via no deal, because of all the routes we have exhausted through incompetence. And that will come at a very high price.

Interesting if even the DUP carefully didn't put No Deal in their manifesto

Faisal Islamm@faisalislam*

In my research for the above tweets I was quite surprised, in a way,
to find the DUP did not seek a No Deal mandate in its latest manifesto...
there is one passing reference to it.

UUP spoke out against it - but what in this is pro No Deal
http://www.mydup.com/images/uploads/publications/Europeanmanifestoo-Final.pdf

Big I listen to Question time on 5live Adrian Chiles does a section before and after somehow it’s less annoying than watching it on tv.

Probably helps I’m usually out walking the dog so not paying 100% attention though.

prettybird

Mairead McGuiness is not a UK MEP and Maggie Chapman was not an MEP when she was on

Maggie Chapman was an MEP candidate I believe - she stood in 2014 as well. Yes, I know that Mairead McGuiness is an Irish MEP - I've watched her on the show - she's still a pro-EU MEP and she's appeared 3 times since 2018.

How many times have anti-EU Conservative MEPs been on?

I only looked at 2018-2019 - I didn't spot any. Lots of appearances by LibDem and Green MPs - more so than Nigel Farage/Brexit/UKIP - you are making a fuss about nothing.

Interesting (but not pleasant material) that BBC Africa took a lead in investigating the murder of 2 women and 2 small children in Cameroon.
Some seriously detailed work done by the BBC, EU and no doubt many others.
Total contrast to the 'waffle' particularly on Brexit coverage.

howabout How enforceable is the backstop ?

Once the Uk has approved an international treaty, it is legally binding.
Ireland and / or the EU could sue the Uk in the ICJ if the Uk breaks the terms of the treaty
So could businesses, investors, even groups of citizens.

The international condemnation would be severe
Ireland is an emotive subject, where hardly any other country in the UN thinks the Uk was right to hang onto NI after Irish Independence.
The Uk would be an international pariah.

The GFA doesn't actually specify no additional border measures, but the backstop does - which of course is why Ireland & the EU demand it.

If the UK signs an FTA e.g. with the USA, which would mean the NI border would have to be enforced for goods, on either side,
then that would be the UK breaching the backstop, an international treaty.

In practice, the US Congress would probably demand an NI-only backstop
and Trump

• who joined Gerry Adams at an IRA fund-raising dinner in the 1999s, while the IRA was bombing London - would probably force the UK to agree

If the backstop were meaningless, then the Tory party would just have approved the WA

Is there any LDem or Green MEP who has appeared on QT as often as Farage ?

What is the total appearances of LDem + Green MEPs compared to the total by Farage + Brexiter Tory MEPs ?

Spotted this nice simple explanation of why the article 24 no deal free trade argument is bunk: tradebetablog.wordpress.com/2019/02/16/one-last-go-article-24/

You'e still making my point for me Clavinova - thank you

Farage has been on QT 32 times already since his first appearance in November 2000

• which is 6 times more than Theresa May.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/ListoffQuestionTimeeepisodes#Year_overview

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/5706277/bbc-question-time-nigel-farage-to-make-his-32nd-appearance-on-panel-alongside-ken-clarke-and-blue-peter-presenter/

.... after tonight's programme [article is from 2018] Farage will have made the most appearances per year on average since Question Time started.

His 32 appearances over 18 years works out at an average of 1.7 per year.
Ken Clarke’s [ previous most frequent] 58 appearances over 36 years is an average of 1.6 per year.

Surprised at Faisal. The DUP have never AFAIK been in favour of No Deal. The DUP would be content with the softest of BRINOs if that was the price of maintaining the integrity of the UK - why they are actually not aligned with the ERG.

BCF if the EU has Legal personality then one would assume it can enforce Treaty terms like the Backstop (although one sided contractual terms are often struck out in any event). However if its authority and competence is ultimately at the behest of its Member States then the position is a bit less concrete

who joined Gerry Adams at an IRA fund-raising dinner in the 1999s, while the IRA was bombing London

is that 1990s or 1999 ? The GFA was signed in 1997 and there was an IRA ceasefire for part of the 90s.

BigChoc - you forgot to mention SNP or even Labour MEPs - or Plaid MEPs

Actually, in the interests of fairness, I have found out about one pro-EU UK MEP that apparently has appeared on QT: Glenys Kinnock...... in 2002

Je reste ma valise

howabout The EU has no problem enforcing other treaties
It is regarded as a legal entity

Any trade bloc - and the EU is more than that - is sufficient a legal entity to act when another party breaks a treaty with it.

The backstop would not be one-sided - it is merely requiring the UK to fulfill the terms of the GFA, another treaty it signed up to, in return for trade & other benefits with the EU

As for sanctions, the most expensive sanction would of course be for the EU to stop any ongoing trade negotiations with the Uk
and / or to suspend any existing trade agreements, any participation in EEA agencies etc

The most effective sanctions might be how other countries would regard the UK

• the sympathy of the world wrt Irish partition is NOT with Britain

Most regard the history of Britain in ireland, including more recent atrocities such as Bloody Sunday, internment, torture and political assassinations, as being shameful & wrong

e.g. the US, which might also suspend any ongoing trade deal with the Uk

DG Typo: 1990s

The picking of "MEPs" is a convenient metric for those who try to suggest that QT has a pro Brexit bias, it doesn't, nothing like! Counting all contributors, the number of programmes where Leavers have outnumbered Remainers is absolutely tiny.

I agree Farage is on regularly and probably too often. I'd personally have been in favour of some "MEPs only" programmes way back when but it seems pretty pointless now.

The EU, in the course of negotiating 40 FTAs with 70 countries, plus about 800 other kinds of deals,
has probably got it nailed down, when it comes to knowing what it can enforce in court,
or what sanctions it can legally apply

I suspected as much BCF, but didn't want to put words into your keyboard

Trump is also going to want the EU onside in his "let's bomb China" campaign. I doubt he's going to be impressed if they say "Sorry, Prez, we're tied up with Brexit right now".

BigChocFrenzy

I don't think Nigel Farage has appeared on QT many times since 2016 - no appearances in 2017, once in 2018 and once in 2019. I can see Vince Cable and Caroline Lucas a few times since the referendum. Who cares if Nigel Farage was on QT 18 years ago? He has his own radio show because he doesn't stop talking - he's probably good for the BBC's ratings.

Is there any LDem or Green MEP who has appeared on QT as often as Farage?

The LibDems only had 1 MEP elected in 2014 - she was probably too busy to attend - UKIP had 24 MEPs. One of the Green MEPs seems to have spent her spare time staging protests at airports and getting herself arrested!

The UK situation:

With apologies to vegetarians.

Clavinova
Why are you arguing the toss about Farage on QT when you could be telling us about the wonderful things that will happen when the UK leaves?

I'd agree that one reason for inviting Farage so often is to stir up controversy and hence increase ratings

• the BBC didn't use to consider ratings for its politics programs, but now it would probably like to turn them into a big game show, with contestants appearing in budgie smudgers / bikinis.

Liar, liar, Raab’s pants on fire !

Peter Foster*@pmdfoster*

So @DominicRaab tells @katyballs he was "on the brink" of a #Brexit breakthrough on Ireland, but was thwarted by @DLidington

- this is a gross distortion of the truth. It mustn't stand. 1/thread
.......
Chris Cook@xtophercook

As ‪*@pmdfoster‬ says, this is wrong.*
Raab wanted to introduce ideas akin to a unilateral exit mechanism to Bxl talks.

May said he should test them with Coveney first, who said no.
That’s... it.

So @DominicRaab tells @katyballs

Raab and "balls" in the same line - there must be God.