Westministenders: The Only Election That Matters - The Tory One

[RedToothBrush]

Fallout from the Euro Elections makes for interesting reading for the leadership hopefuls.

Its not a clear cut as some make out. There is still a case for a deal. The trouble is passing it through parliament. And there is no time to do that. Nor no will.

Any new leader's priority isn't going to be a deal. Its going to be avoiding a General Election. And thats going to be hard.

We are also realistically facing the prospect of another extension which France is likely to block leading to no deal or no deal.

Or a 2nd Referendum.

A 2nd Referendum might be the only way to avoid a General Election. And that will still have no deal on the ballot. Of that you can be sure.

Peter Foster of the Telegraph remarked this morning that in fact the only way to a deal now, might well be via no deal, because of all the routes we have exhausted through incompetence. And that will come at a very high price.

From the Guardian just now. FFS.

Corbyn said there must not be a repeat of the 2016 referendum on Britain’s EU membership, and argued that Labour could strike a better agreement with Brussels that would include a customs union, which would then be put to a public vote.

An EU diplomat said before that the fundamental disagreement over the backstop was:

the UK wants a way to exit the backstop if the trade talks don't produce a deal
that avoids increased goods checks Ni / RoI

BUT that is precisely when Ireland & the EU need the backstop !

The only deal that could avoid the all-Uk backstop being activated is SM+ Customs arrangement

However, with an NI-only backstop, which some in the USA are quietly pushing,
GB could have a simple FTA with the EU, the USA & anywhere else it wants

Corbyn is fast becoming an irrelevance.

You know I said there was a God ?

As I was typing that last post, my email flashed, and there's a reply to my email of last week to my MP ...

Thank you for getting in touch and sharing your concerns and voting decisions.

Please be assured that within the Parliamentary Labour Party, myself and other MPs are making it very clear that the Labour Party's position must be in favour of remaining in and reforming the EU. I am doing everything that I can at a parliamentary level to ensure that the party is united around this policy stance and will continue to campaign for a confirmatory vote on any deal with the option to remain in the EU.

However, with an NI-only backstop, which some in the USA are quietly pushing, GB could have a simple FTA with the EU, the USA & anywhere else it wants

I think the problem with that (DUP aside) is that even a whiff from 100 miles of divergence within the "U"K would simply bolster the case for Scottish independence. Maybe provoking those that aren't currently in favour of it ...

DGR if your MP and mine aren't the same person, then they are certainly in the same WhatsApp group

If the "only deal that avoids the all UK backstop being activated" instantly prevents the UK negotiating an FTA with the USA or indeed literally any other nation worldwide because we'd have to apply the common external tariff at the behest of the EU, I can see why people would be running a mile from it?

Labour's CU idea - or even an SM based deal - would have to be in the PD,
because the EU would still require the WA to be signed

The EU probably trust Corbyn and Labour on the border, since Corbyn even supports Irish Reunification

However, they need the backstop as insurance policy,
because with the chaotically unstable GB political situation, Labour could soon be followed by a Brexit Ultra govt who would happily sweep away the GFA

Also, there is no time to renegotiate the WA and get it approved by all parties
..... except the dates may need to be out back:

Currently, people keep referring to the extension as reducing the transition time.

That's very bad for the UK, because even the original transition wasn't long enough to negotiate and approve a full trade treaty of the complexity and breadth that the UK's economy requires.

So, that's actually one change I would expect to the WA: extend the basic transition, or make it easier to add extensions.

DGR if your MP and mine aren't the same person, then they are certainly in the same WhatsApp group

Not too outing, since my residence in Brum is MN knowledge that my MP is Preet Gill (Edgbaston et ses environs ). Britains first female Sikh MP, daughter of a bus driver - in theory the poster child for Labour.

Quite happy to say she seems to work very hard for our constituency. Also every correspondence has been replied to. Unlike the local Labour party, who I now use instead of /dev/null

One wonders why they were so keen for us to hold European Parliament elections then really? If anything that has happened in the last few months could be considered a waste of time then surely those elections are exhibit A?!

It's not very complicated. The EU constitution requires all member states to send MEPs to the European Parliament. Legally, a member state must have MEPs.

It's not that anyone in the EU actually wanted British MEPs (and who can blame them, given the rabble of IRA supporters, genocide apologists and the merely incompetent that we have sent them). It's that they had to have them because the U.K. state is too dysfunctional to enact Brexit and will therefore be a member state until October at least.

Louise That's why the EU's original backstop was NI-only

There is already an all-Ireland area for agricultural products like beef
and it would be pretty easy to add checks at the 6 or 7 goods ports, rather than along 500km of the Irish land border

It was May who insisted on the all-UK backstop

The E27 members don't actually like that at all,
because it gave the UK most of what it wants from the SM, without having to accept FOM
and they were also worried about checking within the UK that there was a "level playing field" wrt workers' rights, climate measures etc, which all add costs to EU goods

I'm sure it does Misti. What I don't really get is why we couldn't just send the ones we'd already got to continue to serve until our departure date.

What I don't really get is why we couldn't just send the ones we'd already got to continue to serve until our departure date.

because they weren't elected following due process.

It seems an awful lot of the problems with discussing Brexit originate in peoples loose understanding of basic political and legal concepts. Which is concerning when they are required to abide by them and live under them.

You don't have to have any legal and political constraints of course. You can simply remove them and govern by decree. But then we spent 1939-1945 fighting a country that had just done just that and then 1945-present day bragging to the whole world about it. Mixed messages ?

Thanks Bigchoc, I remember the change from "NI only" to "UK wide" too. An "NI only" backstop clearly won't fly atm for other reasons.

I think dg is right, it is annoying enough as a Scot to be pulled out of the EU against our wishes without having to accept notably worse terms than NI as well.
I wasn't in favor of leaving the Union but nonsense like that pushes me towards it.
Not a problem for NI but an issue for a U.K. PM to consider.

Of course they were duly elected?! Isn't that what all that preamble at every result announcement is about.

Why on earth is it beyond the whit for people to just say "you folks can serve for another 6 months" until exit day.

If this UK Parliament reaches 5 years, but the big 2 parties don't want a GE, then why not extend that ?

Same idea.

MPs or MEPs are legally only elected for a certain maximum period
Once that's over, they have to stand again

To change the legal position would have meant an EU treaty change, which would have to be approved by all 27 members plus the UK,
.... which for some members would mean a referendum is required under their law

That was NEVER going to happen, just to save the Uk political Establishment from the embarrassment its own dithering & confusion had caused.

1tisILeClerc

Actually, I was going to ask you a question. How is President Macron coping with the job cuts announced in France these past few days/weeks? Not having Brexit to blame of course: Carrefour 3,000 job cuts, Air France 465 job cuts, GE 1,000 job cuts etc...

Also, you keep mentioning the food banks we have here in the UK. Brexit or no Brexit, do you think we should adopt a similar law to the one you've had in France since 2016? Apparently it's illegal for French supermarkets to destroy or throw away unsold food - they have to donate it to charities and food banks - such is the growing demand for food banks over there.

PMK

Apparently it's illegal for French supermarkets to destroy or throw away unsold food - they have to donate it to charities and food banks

sounds like a good idea on purely environmental grounds ...

Not destroying food sounds a good idea.
iirc, a few countries have brought in similar laws on environmental grounds and it has been proposed here in the Uk too

That just means Macron has even less patience for the UK's problems

He wants Brexit out of the way - and the UK out of the EU - so he can present proposals which he thinks would improve trade and help his economy
The Uk is a blocker to his EU reform ideas

btw, the French pay much higher taxes, in order to get higher unemployment pay - as well as a much better health service
So those workers are on 60% pay, not the equivalent of JSA.

It is part of what continually slows down the French economy, but iirc Macron's modest attempts to reduce the burden on business & higher rate taxpayers didn't go well
The French population, for better or worse, demand all their benefits be retained. Hence not much scope to reduce taxes

Germany also has high unemployment benefit, as a % of earnings - with no limit on savings for recipients- and high taxes

Meanwhile the race is on to see if Ireland can manage to agree who its MEPs are before it has to take its extra 2 out of cold storage on Brexit day.

www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/cold-storage-meps-have-no-status-salary-facilities-or-expenses-says-european-parliament-1.3909539

When you cease to elect parliamentarians within the set out time schedule of that democracy surely you cease to have a democracy.
We are still members of the EU and it is my democratic right to vote in the election.
I thought leavers were all about parliamentary democracy?
Why would you want less if it than every other EU country?

{Actually, I was going to ask you a question. How is President Macron coping with the job cuts announced}

Taking my cue from 'Leavers' I am not going to say and just pout.