Westministenders: The Only Election That Matters - The Tory One

[RedToothBrush]

Fallout from the Euro Elections makes for interesting reading for the leadership hopefuls.

Its not a clear cut as some make out. There is still a case for a deal. The trouble is passing it through parliament. And there is no time to do that. Nor no will.

Any new leader's priority isn't going to be a deal. Its going to be avoiding a General Election. And thats going to be hard.

We are also realistically facing the prospect of another extension which France is likely to block leading to no deal or no deal.

Or a 2nd Referendum.

A 2nd Referendum might be the only way to avoid a General Election. And that will still have no deal on the ballot. Of that you can be sure.

Peter Foster of the Telegraph remarked this morning that in fact the only way to a deal now, might well be via no deal, because of all the routes we have exhausted through incompetence. And that will come at a very high price.

Agreed DGR. It's also true that it is highly unlikely that all foreign sources are saying the same thing.

James Rothwell@JamesERothwell
I'm told Germany will veto an extension to Article 50 at the next EU summit in October unless the UK makes major progress, such as announcing a general election or a second referendum. Story on Telegraph website shortly

Norbert Rottgen, CDU MP and head of the Bundestag foreign affairs committee, says Germany would grant an extension if UK were to hold a public vote and needed a bit more time. But if no reason for extension is provided, it's a "Nein" from Berlin:
www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/05/30/germany-will-veto-brexit-extension-unless-uk-holds-public-vote/
Germany will veto Brexit extension unless UK holds a public vote, senior MP warns

VETO

Germany.

Not France.

or maybe they'll all have to stand on stage X Factor style while Ant and Dec say 'Dominic Raab.................................you're going home'.

{This makes it difficult to take Juncker's definitive pronouncements seriously - it won't be him.}

Mr Junker is the representative of the EP, he is 'simply' the lead spokesperson, not the decider of the details.

Molly Giles commenting on Rory's linguistic prowess:
"I’m always very impressed with anyone who can speak a foreign language fluently. It’s a little bit less impressive though when Stewart doesn’t understand simple phrases of his native language eg “we want to leave the EU”."

Aubrey Allegretti @breeallegretti
Rory Stewart says it was a "very stupid mistake" to smoke opium 15 years ago at a wedding in Iran.

"I shouldn't have done it," he tells @SkyNewsPolitics

Rory has REALLY rattled cages if this is whats coming out and he's issuing denials!

Nah that's just him cultivating his down with the kids image Red.

'Rory Stewart says it was a "very stupid mistake" to smoke opium 15 years ago at a wedding in Iran.'

All this is going to do is give a Harry Flashman dynamic to his image. And that probably won't harm him, who doesn't love Harry Flashman. Agree that people are definitely rattled by him. He's the only one who I can see being given favourable attention on social media.

Those who decide about Renegotiation or Extensions are the Heads of Govt, NOT Juncker

It is a common mistake to regard the Commission / President as the decision makers:

they are more like a civil service, a very pro-active one to be sure,
but the major policy decisions,
particularly on Brexit, are decided by heads of govt and they don't change in November

(November is too late for us, anyway, wrt extension)

Molly Giles commenting on Rory's linguistic prowess:
"I’m always very impressed with anyone who can speak a foreign language fluently. It’s a little bit less impressive though when Stewart doesn’t understand simple phrases of his native language eg “we want to leave the EU”."

But he's said he will 'deliver' Brexit, hasn't he? So what's she on about? Or doesn't she like the fact he's said he wants to be organised when we leave (subject to those assembly things, obviously).

It's astounding how being able to read foreign sources changes the reality of the situation.

Yes, it really does.

I'm fluent in French obviously but I can read a bit of German and Spanish and I read foreign commentary on Brexit/European politics issues. It is astounding how Anglo-centric the British take on European issues often is.

This isn't anywhere near so true of the Irish press, which is useful for those who can't read foreign media.

red Even back in April, many in Germany were unhappy that Merkel was investing so much prestige / energy in trying to save the Uk from itself (as it's seen here)

Since then, with the UK obviously just wasting the extra time she, Rutte & Tusk fought for,
exasperation with the Uk has increased even more and attitudes have hardened

There is a view often expressed here that the UK is engaged in an internal crisi of identity, a political civil war, of which Brexit is only a symptom.

Hence, it is thought there is not much point negotiating seriously with a disfunctional state.
The Uk must first sort itself out

So the Uk needs to leave without No Deal,
experience what it's like
and then decide what to do next

As we all agree BCF, tis it is not and has never been Juncker's call to decide on renegotiation and yet he is quoted every other day in MSM and even directly speaking on twitter etc seeking to purport to do just that.

It is not even the EU's call.

One wonders why they were so keen for us to hold European Parliament elections then really? If anything that has happened in the last few months could be considered a waste of time then surely those elections are exhibit A?!

BCF
Did you mean to say withOUT no deal?

{So the Uk needs to leave without No Deal, }

Because they were protecting us from dropping out no deal in May by virtue of having failed to hold the elections?

The EP elections are a requirement and if they had been held without the UK taking part then it would have practically guaranteed the UK would be 'out' due to procedure.

It has been astonishing ever since the ref to see the BBC echo as fact each new claim of the EU "giving in",
which are so obviously invented by No. 10, sometimes the ERG or even just the Torygraph

Even during the Brexiters's beloved WW2, the BBC knew better than to broadcast complete lies.

This can only be for domestic consumption, because it doesn't fool / influence anyone of any importance in the E27.

In just a few short years, the BBC has wrecked a reputation abroad for truth & reliability that took many decades to build up
The reputation of the British media in general in the EU, is of course down the toilet.

A year or two ago, a German official when asked about the latest UK headline claim,
said he never believed anything in the British media until he saw it in the German media.

There was 'shock news' in the Daily Fail yesterday that Mr Barnier had said there would be no reopening of the WA.
I think their news 'carrier pigeon must have walked.

Louise They were not keen at all on us holding the elections for their own sake

• in fact it caused severe problems with countries having extra MEPs that can only take their seats after we've Brexited.

Great friction with the EP President & others over this

The elections were just a legal requirement after the extension, because all EU members must do so.

also, although the EP must approve the WA - and can refuse to do so -
the people who would first have to approve further concessions or even talks, are the EU heads of govt.

The EU is not yet the USE that some Brexiters terrify themselves over:
the EU is controlled by its member governments

LeCkerc You are right, typo
"need to Leave WITHOUT a deal"

I am almost disappointed that the DM have stopped their run of 'Earth about to be invaded by aliens' coverage. They have gone a bit quiet on WW3 starting next week* too.

*It was a rolling week as it was next week for a few months.

howabout Juncker is perfectly correct to give his opinion as Commission President, also on the feedback he has had from E27 members,
but he does NOT decide about the WA, or the extension

He can advise, but the 27 heads of govt decide if they want the Commission's designated representatives, Barnier's team, to negotiate further

• and the EU parliament can - and said it would, if Ireland is shafted - refuse to accept any changed WA

What is concerning me, is that the current EU Commission & EP big beasts,
e.g. Tusk,Verhofstadt, Juncker, were known to be Anglophile - or at least they were back in 2016 !

At least some of the replacements won't be, or not as much.

"One wonders why they were so keen for us to hold European Parliament elections then really? "
Club rules, dear. If it wasn't for the ERG and the DUP, we would be ex club members. Aren't you following this?

I simply cannot understand how Labour and Tory PM candidates are STILL talking about renegotiating given the messages from the EU. Feels quite insane now.