Westministenders: The Only Election That Matters - The Tory One

[RedToothBrush]

Fallout from the Euro Elections makes for interesting reading for the leadership hopefuls.

Its not a clear cut as some make out. There is still a case for a deal. The trouble is passing it through parliament. And there is no time to do that. Nor no will.

Any new leader's priority isn't going to be a deal. Its going to be avoiding a General Election. And thats going to be hard.

We are also realistically facing the prospect of another extension which France is likely to block leading to no deal or no deal.

Or a 2nd Referendum.

A 2nd Referendum might be the only way to avoid a General Election. And that will still have no deal on the ballot. Of that you can be sure.

Peter Foster of the Telegraph remarked this morning that in fact the only way to a deal now, might well be via no deal, because of all the routes we have exhausted through incompetence. And that will come at a very high price.

If we have a PV, it shouldn't be so Remain can "win"
Or Leave for that matter.

A PV is only justified if the HoC is still too logjammed and / or too cowardly to choose from the available options Revoke / WA / No Deal

We cannot stay indefinitely in limbo, with industry seeping abroad and fascists filling the political vacuum.
Like cockroaches, once they are well dug in, fascists are very difficult to get rid of.

Even if No Deal wins, at least the majority of those who bother to vote would have specifically chosen it

• so they've only themselves to blame if they find it isn't just "them'uns" who suffer in the Brexshitstorm (living in Germany has converted me to long compound words ! )

Anyway, we might well find in October that the EU would only grant an extension for a PV or GE
and the Tories - and probably Labour too, if they've any sense - would be bricking a GE

If you work backwards from effects to causes, it's hard to imagine that Brexit was anything other than a conspiracy by the rest of the world to put Britain firmly in it's place once and for all.

When this is finally done and dusted, I'd be amazed if anyone cared about the British PMs advice on choosing curtains, let alone weightier matters.

All you need to do is find one person (the shoutier the better) who thinks they've experienced something that may be different to what is being suggested, and years of research, peer review and international agreement go down the crapper.

It would be too depressing to list examples, but if it were an alphabetical list, lets start with anti-vaxxers and move on.

^ Exactly why a Peoples Assembly won't work.

It was a conspiracy by a few billionaire oligarchs to enable them to loot
and to enable their stooges in UK politics to roll back the welfare state to US levels

Some foreign leaders, like Putin, climbed aboard afterwards, but they were just taking advantage of an existing disaster capitalist get-richer-quick scheme

I agree that in a No Deal Brexit, that the UK is likely to "do an Argentina" with a few years of disastrous decisions causing a previously wealthy, advanced country to crash into permanent basket case status and obscurity.

Also, in the case if the UK, Scotland and then NI would leave the rUK over the following years

We cannot stay indefinitely in limbo, with industry seeping abroad and fascists filling the political vacuum.

Says who ? Tories and Labour seem quite happy for that to be the situation (by actions, not words, of course). And Farage would positively welcome such a state of affairs. There's plenty more letters in the alphabet to form new parties around.

You know what ? It's starting to feel like the UK was chosen as a scape goat, and all the ills of the world are being poured into us before we are expelled into the wilderness. (An apposite metaphor from a user with a PRB nickname )

The Tories were riding the Brexit tiger and now it has turned and started having them for lunch.

Or another metaphor:

The Tories should have known that once you choose to light the populist fire, your enemies would choose to keep pouring on petrol

As an EU leader, maybe Verhofstadt, said:

it's just an internal Tory party catfight which got totally out of hand

It's mostly cockup, rather than conspiracy
but what a world-class, gold-medal-winning cockup !

The Tories, unless they squeeze out a miracle, have wrecked the country longterm.

Even if May revoked as a final act of defiance / duty, the country would remain divided in two.
Just not a financially broke country

"We cannot stay indefinitely in limbo

Says who ?"

Probably the EU

{You know what ? It's starting to feel like the UK was chosen as a scape goat,}

Someone in the UK trod on a white mouse and this is revenge.

We cannot stay indefinitely in limbo

Says who ?

Probably the EU

In which case Brexiteers will take it as a challenge. Which they appear to be quite happy to rise to.

While this 'chewing the fat' is all very well, when is the next 'deadline' for anything Brexit related, anything before October 31st?
There is a June EP 'review of the situation' but I forget when that is.

Basil that seems to be exactly what MG is implying. While those who are interested in the EU were always more inclined to vote in EU elections the Remain campaign did have the effect of amplifying their efforts.

In contrast the Bxt/UKIP protest vote only really emerged with force in 2014. It grew as a percentage and in absolute terms despite a whole load of Tory and Labour Leavers staying home in disgust in 2019. Far from the Bxt vote being the high water mark it may be the tip of the iceberg.

My understanding is that no-one actually wants No Deal long term, not even Nige and co. The argument is more that walking away is the now the only way to force the issue and get a Deal in preference to neverending limbo.

Reading between the lines with Katya Adler's more recent reports from the EU it looks like this may also be the view developing there too.

So QT is continuing its proud tradition of never having had a pro-EU UK MEP on the panel - despite the UK having returned a majority of pro-EU MEPs 

Do not watch it. Boycott with viewing figures.

Sorry about my errors in earlier double post. I now keep pondering (whilst ferrying half term children around) on how very different the outcome of the ref would have been if there'd just been a third ' Don't know' option on the ballot/poll paper.

DG Challenge ?
Nothing the UK could do about it.
The EU will have moved on.

It'll just be

"welcome to 3rd country status
and if you want even a minideal, then before we start here's where you sign the WA Memorandum of Understanding on the dotted line"

leclerc < chews fat > The June review is just at the 20-21June EUCO

The EU won't cut off the extension then

• the UK in the next 3 weeks just won't have time to flagrantly breach the extension terms, e.g. by trying to renegotiate the WA

However, heads of govt will be briefed about how the Uk has used the extra time,
i.e. for dithering

The EU doesn't plan to discuss Brexit again before the October EUCO,
so it is likely that discussions and conclusions here will to some extent determine any decision in October about an extension

Of course, a new Brexiter PM may wave his will instead of switching on what passes for his brain
and just go for No Deal

Howabout I see great danger of the UK politicians & media continuing to convince themselves

• as they have been doing all along - that the EU will give in and grant cake.

The EU will not risk any damage to the Single Market - UK trade is nowhere near worth that.

German business & industry leaders have said that repeatedly to Merkel
Others in the E27 have chimed in likewise

I also see no signs from this sign of the pond that the EU are ready to abandon Ireland

• they know it would probably be the end of the EU

Ireland would still have a veto on the extension that would be necessary to renegotiate anything
and at least 10 smaller countries would stay with them to the bitter end.
So would the EP, which has repeatedly stated its support for Ireland

The only hope for the UK is to offer Ireland something they will accept, in return for say a 10 years limit on the backstop
e.g. joint rule of NI, since they are willing to smash the GFA, the UK might at least benefit from so doing

BCF
I wasn't expecting anything dramatic, just wondering when the next 'decide something' is due, and if it is before 31 Oct.
Sounds like just dithering until October then. I will go back to watching paint dry then.

Reading between the lines with Katya Adler's more recent reports from the EU it looks like this may also be the view developing there too.

Yet all the other serious European commenters that I read - in French, German and English - say that Adler's take on this is wrong.

On IDS's vulnerability in a GE. His constituency is Chingford. There were over 5,000 UKIP votes which went to Labour in 2017. If JC pivots to Remain IDS starts to look pretty safe. If the LibDem vote goes back to its 2010 levels then he is even safer. The threat to him is the BXT Prty.

Yet all the other serious European commenters that I read - in French, German and English - say that Adler's take on this is wrong

It's astounding how being able to read foreign sources changes the reality of the situation.

(It's also amazing how quickly it gets noted with suspicion in a large office. But that's another story ....)

Waiting to see Misti but impossible to discern who will be in charge of the EU atm let alone what their position will be. This makes it difficult to take Juncker's definitive pronouncements seriously - it won't be him.

No way UK will offer Ireland what you are suggesting BCF and I doubt it is what Ireland wants in any case.

In contrast the Bxt/UKIP protest vote only really emerged with force in 2014.

Not really true. They came second in 2009 witha 16% share of the vote pushing Labour and LibDems into 3rd & 4th. Both UKIP and Labour gained 13 seats. Comparisons with earlier elections are not really valid, because there was a redistribution of seats when Bulgaria and Romania joined. Guess who pushed for that? The Tories, perhaps they rue the day now? Maybe not. Like May always blaming someone else.

Since Brexit and UKIP are really one, then IDS would not appear to be safe. It does depend on whether people go back to the old parties.

norman smith
@BBCNormanS
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A cull of the Tory leader candidates looms. 1922 executive to consider re-writing rules to reduce number of contenders.

I wonder if it will be like a Gladiators style contest (1990s ITV Gladiators, not the macho ancient Roman sort)