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Brexit
Original poster

No Deal Brexit - Bring it on

247 replies

Bearbehind · 26/05/2019 22:47

It’s economic suicide but there’s clearly no other way to demonstrate to Leavers what a shit show this all is.

Leavers resolutely refuse to listen to anything negative after 3 years, so fuck it.

I feel for those who woukd be affected by it but I didn’t cause it.

The irony is there’s not a Tory MP with the guts he cone PM and then to do it - so this mess will go on indefinitely.

OP posts:
1tisILeClerc · 27/05/2019 13:00

I have based this on the 2 statements that Mr Barnier, Junker and many other EU leaders have said:
The WA will not be reopened.
The EU will not enter into any further negotiations until after the WA is signed.
The first was being quoted almost weekly by Mr Barnier from December onwards. The second was from a short while afterwards, possibly in the same original communique.

1tisILeClerc · 27/05/2019 13:01

The second is by 'logic' in that to disentangle the UK from the EU legally, it must foillow the WA which is the only legal procedure.

Original poster
Bearbehind · 27/05/2019 13:03

I’ve started a thread on this to gauge opinions.

I get that the WA had to be signed in the event of a Brexit deal but surely if it’s no deal then it’s not applicable - we just negiotate as a third country - albeit one in an incredibly weak position.

OP posts:
DockerDre · 27/05/2019 13:05

@Bearbehind What makes you think that you won't be affected by the economic meltdown you predict?

DockerDre · 27/05/2019 13:06

What I mean is you're feeling sorry for the people who will be affected. But you don't seem to class yourself in the same group. What's different about you?

GhostofFrankGrimes · 27/05/2019 13:07

Leavers resolutely refuse to listen to anything negative after 3 years, so fuck it.

Yes, that's how I feel. Although I'd be interested to know how leavers have followed Farage from Norway style deal to no deal other than Brexit being a religion.

Original poster
Bearbehind · 27/05/2019 13:08

I will be but for various reasons, I think I’ll probably be less worse off than many.

I’m not doubting it will be shit for everyone but I really don’t see another alternative.

Leavers simply don’t want to hear about anything negative so the only way to overcome that is to just do it and make the predictions a reality.

OP posts:
1tisILeClerc · 27/05/2019 13:10

No
The WA is principally a list of legislation that needs 'untangling' so if the UK leaves it will always be the contents of this list. The PD is yet to be rewritten as it defines when each of the items in the WA get implemented. If the UK wants to keep CU/SM then that section of the WA is reviewed as necessary.
Of course the UK doesn't like it, because there is no 'cake' but the UK has a choice whether to leave or not or 'partially leave' using one of Mr Barnier's steps, or indeed a customised version.
The WA is a bit like a roadmap, showing how to get from London to Manchester. Many possible roads, but the WA is saying that you can't cheat and cut across the fields or go by sea.

GhostofFrankGrimes · 27/05/2019 13:11

I’m not doubting it will be shit for everyone but I really don’t see another alternative.

In some ways its favourable to the WA. All the WA does is lead to the slow decline of the UK over many years. Once the UK has lost the protections that EU membership affords any future government can come along and implement disaster capitalism and realise forms of hard Brexit down the road.

No deal gets the job done immediately.

Original poster
Bearbehind · 27/05/2019 13:13

1tis all of that applies to a situation where a deal is agreed.

Can you provide a source which explicitly states the WA would need to be signed in the event of No Deal?

Interpretation of what was said whilst trying to negiotaite a deal cannot necessarily be applied to a no deal situation?

OP posts:
frogsoup · 27/05/2019 13:19

Dockerdre clearly everyone would be affected. But if the shit really hits the fan many of us (those southern 'metropolitan elites' who overwhelmingly voted remain) have the financial resources to either stay above water in the UK, or get the hell out of here if need be. Speaking personally, if food prices go up 30% we'll be mighty pissed off but we won't starve. That's not the case for a lot of families, and already poverty-stricken leave-voting areas of the UK will be hit especially hard.

Namenic · 27/05/2019 13:22

I can totally sympathise with OP POV. If we had an AV second ref with all options on table I would be tempted to go for

  1. Remain
  2. Hard Brexit/no deal
  3. Single market
  4. Customs union

Because at least no deal will allow us to do other things eg trade deals (and it would show no dealers what a terrible option it is - demographically they would bear more hardship). I agree with @1tisleClerc - we have such a good deal with EU currently with rebate etc. What is the point in just going for a more rubbish version of the present?

BUT the NI situation would probably sway me away from the no deal option. I hardly knew anything about NI politics before - but it seems that no deal more than the single market and customs union would cause problems. Britain has a responsibility to do its utmost to prevent violence/danger given its history of meddling.

Original poster
Bearbehind · 27/05/2019 13:25

Exactly frog. I just consider my situation to be less precarious than say a family with 3 or 4 children and one low income earner who works in a industry most vulnerable to Brexit like the car industry.

OP posts:
1tisILeClerc · 27/05/2019 13:29

Bearbehind
The WA is a list of what needs to be negotiated and is not the negotiation itself. The contents will not change.
Like making a cake, you need eggs, flour, fat, flavouring, sugar. That is the recipe which is fixed (the WA) and the PD then defines how much of each item you want (determining the size of the cake).
Until everyone in the UK understands that the WA is NOT a deal there will be no progress made. This has been discussed repeatedly on the Westminsterenders threads and the statements from the EU have been on MSM since December.

Original poster
Bearbehind · 27/05/2019 13:32

I appreciate that 1tis but those discussions have always been in relation to negiotating a deal.

I’m just asking for evidence that the WA still needs to be signed in the event of no deal as, conceptually it doesn’t make sense and I can’t find any source which supports your opinion.

It’s pretty crucial if it is true.

OP posts:
80sMum · 27/05/2019 13:38

Bearbehind I'm starting to feel the same way! I'm so fed up with it all and trying to talk with Leavers feels like talking to a brick wall at times.

It's gone on for so long, I wish they would hurry up and get Boris Johnson on the case to speed things up and let's just crash out without a deal and then just get on with life!

I simply am utterly bewildered as to why so many people still think Brexit is a good idea, even after 3 years to contemplate the potential consequences. My colleague at work, for example, is pro-Brexit. She's not very well off, already claims housing benefit and universal credit. How the hell she thinks Brexit will be a good thing for her is beyond my comprehension.

The fact is, she's very, very likely to be significantly worse off post-Brexit. I'll be OK. I have a decent pension fund and substantial savings. Why is Brexit being supported by the very people who stand to lose out the most? God knows! And I'm just about past caring. If people want it so much, let them have it!

Dongdingdong · 27/05/2019 13:40

I’m just asking for evidence that the WA still needs to be signed in the event of no deal as, conceptually it doesn’t make sense and I can’t find any source which supports your opinion.

Agree - it’s the first I’ve heard of it and it makes no sense.

1tisILeClerc · 27/05/2019 13:41

Since a lot of very expensive lawyers have been working on this for 3 years although I can't immediately put my fingers on a statement saying this I can assure you that if wriggling out of signing the WA was possible someone would have done it.
In a divorce, you draw up a list of who gets what. This is the WA.
You are being fooled by the notion that no deal means there is nothing to negotiate and that the UK can walk away. The legislation in the WA has to be resolved one way or another.
If you were to drive your car in Europe and you knocked someone over and killed them. Which court would you be tried at. Would you go to prison and if so where? These are some of the questions that the WA answers (indirectly) and they have to be resolved.

TheAngryLlama · 27/05/2019 13:42

Wouldn’t work op. They’d just whine it was someone else’s fault. That’s what the mentality is all about. My life’s shit cos thatcher/EU/rich bankers/ dirty foreign immigrants/delete as appropriate.
Maybe your life’s shit cos YOU. Possible? Nah.

Bluebluered · 27/05/2019 13:47

It’s shit. I can’t be arsed anymore, I voted Lib Dem and I’m glad, but it doesnt matter does it?

Will this mean house prices will decrease?

PizzaForPusheen · 27/05/2019 13:47

Part of me thinks that what this country actually needs is to be humbled and humiliated on the world stage, in the manner that a no deal Brexit will deliver.

Then we might finally learn to stop meddling in other people’s countries by waging wars on spurious grounds based on a inflated sense of importance and arrogance based on distant history. And instead learn what we are_ a middle tier country that could look after it’s own population a lot better if it tried and make international contributions in things like science, education and research if it funded it properly.

Sadly, we most likely won’t learn though and still go around blowing our own trumpet like the sun never sets...

Original poster
Bearbehind · 27/05/2019 13:48

1tis you can give me as many analogies as you like, I understand what you are claiming, I just don’t agree with it.

If we walk away with no deal then the WA becomes irrelevant.

All the commentary I can find says no deal is the result of not being able to agree on a WA

It therefore doesn’t make sense that, even in the event of no deal, we’d revert back to a WA we couldn’t agree anyway.

OP posts:
Songsofexperience · 27/05/2019 13:49

God knows! And I'm just about past caring. If people want it so much, let them have it!

I'm sorry but I find this horrendous. As much as I understand your exasperation, I refuse to play Farage' s & Bannon's little game. They WANT one half to choose no deal out of anger and the other half to hold two fingers up to them and let it happen to teach them a lesson.
Divisions will not stop there. It'll just be the beginning.
Don't be tempted to support it in any circumstances, please.

Dongdingdong · 27/05/2019 13:49

I can't immediately put my fingers on a statement saying this I can assure you that if wriggling out of signing the WA was possible someone would have done it

But nobody has to wriggle out of it because the WA has not got the support of parliament Confused There’s been absolutely no mention of it in the news either. I think you’re wrong here I’m afraid.

MindyStClaire · 27/05/2019 13:49

It's gone on for so long, I wish they would hurry up and get Boris Johnson on the case to speed things up and let's just crash out without a deal and then just get on with life!

Again. No deal will make it very difficult for those of us in NI to "just get on with life". This is an extraordinarily selfish, if not unusual, view.