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Brexit

Westministenders: The One Where Everyone is an Election Expert For 3 Days

999 replies

RedToothBrush · 24/05/2019 17:40

The Vote has been cast.

The PM has quit. SHOCK!

We now face The Big Wait.

Waiting for the results. Waiting for the new leader. Waiting for a new direction.

Turnout looks likely to be up overall compared to 2014. Whether this is a good thing or a bad thing isn't clear.

At this stage realistically the only definite thing that I think you can actually speculate is the LDs have done very well indeed. Turnout is up in all traditional LD areas and remain areas in general. Though some LDs are getting a little carried away.

Does this mean that the Brexit Party will do badly? No. Its merely a reflection of demographic polarisation. And it may indeed help the Brexit Party ironically. It does suggest that Labour hasn't done well in the north (difference with 2014 turnouts worst in Labour areas) and there are hints that the Cons have done badly (Lincolnshire turnout for the locals was lower than for the EU elections). Something is happening in Wales. But no one seems to really understand what. Its gone 'rogue'!

Plus there are far more leave areas than remain ones. The increases in turnout possibly aren't enough to make a significant dent on the Brexit Party lead.

Not much of an increase in turnout in places like Derby, Middlesbrough, Hartlepool, Basildon, Leigh - which all have high leave figures suggest that the Brexit Party are not motivated those they persuaded to the polls for the first time in 2016 for the Ref to vote. Instead it means they can only increase their vote share with a further collapse in the Lab / Con vote from 2014. The question with this is how close were UKIP to the ceiling vote? If you didn't go with UKIP in 2014 would the ref change that? Does this mark it harder for them to hit close to 38% vote share? Argueably yes - but don't get too excited yet either. It doesn't mean they won't do very well, if there is a Lab/Con vote collaspe like the locals. I still would not be surprised by a mid-thirties result.

Psychologically the popular vote matters. This might be important for the future. The vote of those extra referedum voters hasn't been motivated by another protest vote under Farage. Who is going to try and court them? This affects the direction of all the parties.

The real issue is how the seats split down. With the vote fragmented between the LDs, Greens, Plaid and SNP the ranking is against them. And works for the Brexit Party.

Meanwhile Boris Johnson has vowed to crash the UK out the EU without a deal.... what internal numbers is he aware of???

Results due after 10pm Sunday.

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missclimpson · 26/05/2019 18:38

Turnout at 52% in France.

prettybird · 26/05/2019 18:44

Won't it be ironic (but to us at least, not unforeseeable) if the rest of Europe, far from lurching to the right and becoming more Eurosceptic, moves to the Centre/Left and becomes more pro-EU (notwithstanding its flaws).

While in the UK, the electorate splits to the extremes, with the Right wing (we assume, as there is no manifesto Hmm) Turquoise Party getting most seats but the Remain supporting LibDems/Greens/SNP/Plaid also doing well. The percentages are going to be interesting, but Faragit and the hard Brexiters are going to spin it whichever way that suits their purposes of a No Deal Brexit Angry

OhLookHeKickedTheBall · 26/05/2019 18:45

Just home from our count. Waiting on the official figures at 10pm and desperately hoping no recount is called. Debating on whether to have a nap now just in case!

RedToothBrush · 26/05/2019 18:48

No I didn't make the spreadsheet!!!!

I'm a nerd who like spreadsheets, but thats not mine.

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Peregrina · 26/05/2019 18:57

Grieve has absolutely nothing to lose by coming out and saying that he will vote against his own party. The mob that infected his constituency already want to deselect him, so go for it Grieve. I don't know whether Hammond will be in the same position. Despite being Tories they do appear to have some integrity.

I didn't get selected to go to the count - they had enough volunteers. Just as well, because I am very busy with other things this weekend.

missclimpson · 26/05/2019 19:02

First estimate in France, National Front 23.1% Macron / Renaissance 21.9%. Could be worse.

RedToothBrush · 26/05/2019 19:02

Turnout in Manchester isn't as high as perhaps I'd hope. 31.67% (30.5%)
Newcastle under Lyme 36% (31.9%)
Wolverhampton 28.8% (32.8%)

Britain Elects @britainelects
Our forecast for the UK European election results, accounting for both polling and new turnout data, will be out at 7pm.

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RedToothBrush · 26/05/2019 19:04

Britain Elects @britainelects
Our forecast for this year's UK European elections has...

Brex: 24 MEPs (+24 vs 2014)
LDem: 15 (+14)
Lab: 14 (-6)
Con: 10 (-9)
Grn: 4 (+1)
SNP: 2 (-)
PC: 1 (-)

Results will be posted here and on our site as the night progresses. britainelects.com/europarl19/

Shock

PLEASE. I would take this.

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RedToothBrush · 26/05/2019 19:07

Here is the Britain Elects Map.

Some surprise await if this is right.

Westministenders: The One Where Everyone is an Election Expert For 3 Days
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RedToothBrush · 26/05/2019 19:08

A Lib Dem gain IN THE EAST MIDLANDS???

WTF!!!!?!

NW with TWO Lib Dems AND a green?!!!

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missclimpson · 26/05/2019 19:08

Then after national front and Macron in France - greens, centre right, socialists.

RedToothBrush · 26/05/2019 19:09

West Midlands with a Green?!

WOW.

That would be some result.

(Crosses fingers).

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DGRossetti · 26/05/2019 19:09

Won't it be ironic (but to us at least, not unforeseeable) if the rest of Europe, far from lurching to the right and becoming more Eurosceptic, moves to the Centre/Left and becomes more pro-EU (notwithstanding its flaws)

Maybe trying to inflate the far right across the continent is like trying to squeeze the air out of wallpaper ? OK, so the UK is being squeezed, but that;'s just pushing the liberalism elsewhere ...

DGRossetti · 26/05/2019 19:10

West Midlands with a Green?!

Well not thanks to the Rossetti votes going LD Grin.

Green I can take.

RedToothBrush · 26/05/2019 19:13

Helps if i post the right map does it?!

Westministenders: The One Where Everyone is an Election Expert For 3 Days
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DGRossetti · 26/05/2019 19:13

Another way to spike a BoJo PM would be if Theresa May offered her wholehearted support to him ....

HazardGhost · 26/05/2019 19:13

Nor the hazards, we both went Lib!

BigChocFrenzy · 26/05/2019 19:15

Blimey ! Shock

< crosses fingers with red >

RedToothBrush · 26/05/2019 19:15

LDs win a seat in the NE.

LDs in the West Midlands. (Thanks DGR)

SW Two BRexit, Two LD, 1 Con, 1 green.

TWO LDs in the East.

In fact EVERY region, bar scotland gets a LD!!!

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MyOtherProfile · 26/05/2019 19:15

Another way to spike a BoJo PM would be if Theresa May offered her wholehearted support to him
Oh yes please! Go on Theresa, do it for the good of the country that you love!

RedToothBrush · 26/05/2019 19:16

Scratch that, I mean Wales not Scotland.

You can tell I'm in shock, and my jaw is on the floor and making mistakes.

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SwedishEdith · 26/05/2019 19:17

Shelagh Fogarty had a great thread today about Johnson.


I see this grotesque slander by #BorisJohnson is doing the rounds again. A tirade so easy to counter I am delighted to do so. Let’s call it Lessons from Liverpool, shall we 1.

He put his name to the piece so it’s his. Unless Simon Heffer had a gun to his head it is all his.

For those who may not know, Ken Bigley was a civil engineer from Liverpool who was held by the Tawhid and Jihad ("Oneness of God and Jihad") Islamic extremist group, along with two American Colleagues.

He was filmed. He was used as bait. He was beheaded. His elderly mother lived through all this and died without giving her son the Christian burial she wanted for him. Her city - my city - grieved for her. Here’s how....

Our local council organised a vigil. People prayed or just gave witness to the shared sorrow they were feeling for a family much like their own. Ken’s face is a Scouse face. Look at any photo. It has a map of Ireland on it plus years of Liverpool - wry, mischievous, kind.

Boris Johnson called all of that an ‘extreme reaction’.

He then spaffs on about the docks (see Michael Heseltine for sensible stuff on Liverpool’s port history), an ‘excessive prediliction for welfarism’ (also known as poverty caused in part by Government policy (see Hezza again for sensible stuff on this).

Then we come to his peroration (yes, Mr Johnson, we can all fancy ourselves a Cicero). ‘Flawed psychological state’. A ‘sense of victimhood’, and in a stunning act of pshychological transference he posits this ...

‘They (the psychologically flawed people of Liverpool) cannot accept that they might have made any contribution to their own misfortunes’. The hubris is staggering. The blindness to himself complete.

His assessment of Hillsborough is derived from precisely nothing. He halves the number who died, he blames dead teenagers for dying crushed underfoot then crushes their good names underfoot for good measure. (See David Cameron, House of Commons Sept 12th,2012 apology).

He refers to South Yorkshire Police in the breathless tones of an eager young freemason, and concludes by making the Sun newspaper the truth teller on the whole sorry tragedy. The gall of the man.

The Liverpool people’s community response to Ken Bigley’s murder was infused with simple things - care, feeling for others, and revulsion at the horrifying beheading of a man by crazed extremists. It was 2004...

Over a decade later names like James Foley, Steven Sotloff, David Haines, Alan Henning, Peter Kassig, Kenji Goto and countless others would be murdered similarly. Each death met with international outrage. Extreme reaction?

I wonder if the communal, the personal, the intimate way people in my home city respond to public events alarms Johnson so much - revolts him even - is that in those things lies something I suspect he does not much care for. Responsibility.

Mutual responsibility. If that means just showing up, show up. If it means listening for thirty years to the Hillsborough families when ‘polite society’ has decided it prefers to listen to Kelvin Mackenzie, South Yorkshire Police, and Jack Straw, then listen to them.

If it means arguing back at charlatans like him and hearing shouts of ‘whingeing Scousers’, victims, and any other lazy slurs, then we argue back.

If caring and showing it and bleeding out loud sometimes is ‘extreme’, I’m in.

One of the proudest moments of my life was when a crowd of 30 thousand people at Anfield shot the messenger from the Brown Government when his inadequate words on Hillsborough evidence were met with a loud, communal NO! It changed everything.

Beware the loud, communal NO!, Mr Johnson. You might hear it sooner than you think.

RedToothBrush · 26/05/2019 19:18

If thats what is making Andrew Lilico and Labour go into expectation management mode, I'm not damn well surprised.

Lilico was saying earlier that anything north of 10 seats for the Brexit Party was 'amazing' earlier and I was going WTF.

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RedToothBrush · 26/05/2019 19:19

I think I might melt by 3am.

Either with excitement or horror.

Thank god its a bank holiday. I may need gin.

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Peregrina · 26/05/2019 19:20

Looks as thought in % Remain parties could match Brexit. Leaving Tory & Labour out. Fartage will be crowing, but once again, it shows that the country is still split. Not good for the Tories though, but not quite the meltdown Hannan predicted so he should be able to get back to his comfortable life in Brussels.

Nowhere that Fartage gets the majority of seats!

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