Westministenders: The One Where Everyone is an Election Expert For 3 Days

[RedToothBrush]

The Vote has been cast.

The PM has quit. SHOCK!

We now face The Big Wait.

Waiting for the results. Waiting for the new leader. Waiting for a new direction.

Turnout looks likely to be up overall compared to 2014. Whether this is a good thing or a bad thing isn't clear.

At this stage realistically the only definite thing that I think you can actually speculate is the LDs have done very well indeed. Turnout is up in all traditional LD areas and remain areas in general. Though some LDs are getting a little carried away.

Does this mean that the Brexit Party will do badly? No. Its merely a reflection of demographic polarisation. And it may indeed help the Brexit Party ironically. It does suggest that Labour hasn't done well in the north (difference with 2014 turnouts worst in Labour areas) and there are hints that the Cons have done badly (Lincolnshire turnout for the locals was lower than for the EU elections). Something is happening in Wales. But no one seems to really understand what. Its gone 'rogue'!

Plus there are far more leave areas than remain ones. The increases in turnout possibly aren't enough to make a significant dent on the Brexit Party lead.

Not much of an increase in turnout in places like Derby, Middlesbrough, Hartlepool, Basildon, Leigh - which all have high leave figures suggest that the Brexit Party are not motivated those they persuaded to the polls for the first time in 2016 for the Ref to vote. Instead it means they can only increase their vote share with a further collapse in the Lab / Con vote from 2014. The question with this is how close were UKIP to the ceiling vote? If you didn't go with UKIP in 2014 would the ref change that? Does this mark it harder for them to hit close to 38% vote share? Argueably yes - but don't get too excited yet either. It doesn't mean they won't do very well, if there is a Lab/Con vote collaspe like the locals. I still would not be surprised by a mid-thirties result.

Psychologically the popular vote matters. This might be important for the future. The vote of those extra referedum voters hasn't been motivated by another protest vote under Farage. Who is going to try and court them? This affects the direction of all the parties.

The real issue is how the seats split down. With the vote fragmented between the LDs, Greens, Plaid and SNP the ranking is against them. And works for the Brexit Party.

Meanwhile Boris Johnson has vowed to crash the UK out the EU without a deal.... what internal numbers is he aware of???

Results due after 10pm Sunday.

My London based MIL voted lib dem after a lifetime of Tory voting.
I'm not sure she could mentally manage it at a GE but maybe?

DG now try saying that to my Silhillian MIL and trust me you will get a flea in your ear. (But an nice cup of tea and an excellent flapjack)

Salford is a city in it's own right, not a 'part of Manchester'.

Almost proves my point.

It's a small city in it's own right though ....

Of course the UK has nothing on Australia/New Zealand, or US/Canada.

DG any Londoner who thinks birmingham and Redditch/Bromsgrove are in anyway the same thing you send to me. I have a soap box.

I've come over all oddly patriotically brummie. I fucking hate birmingham as well it's shite!

DG any Londoner who thinks birmingham and Redditch/Bromsgrove are in anyway the same thing you send to me. I have a soap box.

You could spend the rest of your life preaching and still the ignorance would remain ...

Not all Londoners are so ignorant, of course. But as I said, in a population of 10,000,000 even if only 10% think that way, that's the entire population of Birmingham you'd have to correct.

Hazard

Bromsgrove

btw, The Artrix is our favourite venue in the West Midlands ....

This is an interesting tweet... Expectation management plus development of an alternative narrative here.

We haven't got a clue how it's gone - apart from a reasonable idea that the LDs have done well (which Lilico admits). Certainly its not just us here who are nervous about the result.

Andrew Lilico @ andrew_lilico
So how are we interpreting this? Maybe Remain voters were less discouraged, & so less likely to stay at home, in areas where there were more Remainers around them, whilst Leavers turned out more across the board, so in Remain areas turnout is higher?

Or maybe Lib Dems were more able to mobilise their vote in more pro-Remain areas, so turnout rose more there?

Or maybe these euref vote %s proxy for something else entirely, which will seem obvious once we know it but cannot guess now?

I honestly don't know. And I'm getting increasingly grumpy as the day goes on, out of frustration (not to thrilled at prospect of a 3am bedtime but I want to hear London's result)

I find it interesting to note that the very last YouGov poll suggested that overall 2016 remain turnout was going to be lower than 2016 leave turnout, giving leave the advantage in turnout differential. It was the only one which did. Which is entirely possible despite what we've seen for turnout declarations and might be assuming.

Just a point about that though. If you were a 2016 leave voter who changed their mind, would you be more or less inclined and motivated to vote than the average person? And you'd still be showing up in that leave column... We know there is more of them than the reverse (and are the reverse liable to be more or less motivated than the average voter?)

Is that possibly a factor no one has considered? Just pondering.

PMK

Its going to be an interesting night...

{It's a small city in it's own right though ....}
Size isn't everything,,,,apparently.

Everyone outside London knows they are all Cockneys.
The bells of Bow must be damn loud!

Salford is a city in it's own right, not a 'part of Manchester'. It lies inside the M60 ring therefore it is part of Manchester - obvs.

Ditto anything inside the M25 is London - obvs innit ...

Inside the Bermuda triangle of M5/M6/M42 is Birmingham...

It could be along night ...

Any thoughts on Glasgow/Edinburgh/Bristol ...

{(not to thrilled at prospect of a 3am bedtime but I want to hear London's result) }
Tactics: glass of wine now and bed. Set alarm for 03:00 and annoy the rest of household with celebration/shouting/despair/doing a noisy domestic activity as a anger calming measure.

Just a point about that though. If you were a 2016 leave voter who changed their mind, would you be more or less inclined and motivated to vote than the average person? And you'd still be showing up in that leave column... We know there is more of them than the reverse (and are the reverse liable to be more or less motivated than the average voter?)

My vote is on more inclined. You'd be more determined to get the message across that you'd changed your mind.

{GaspodeWonderCat}
Many cities don't have motorway rings.

Boris Johnson through the Eyes of Liverpool

Written in response to this article

@benwansell
Labour Party about to explode it seems. John Howarth’s email to members is absolutely 100% excoriating of the leadership. Following Tom Watson this morning, they seem to have info on how badly things have gone. I guess we shall see. But not looking good for fence-sitting strategy

RED it’s impossible to second guess it does seem the electorate has not behaved as expected.

There was a lot on twitter this morning about trying to get Tom Watson no confidenced as Deputy this morning.

I thought it odd timing.

@PippaCrerar
🚨 Wow. Philip Hammond not ruling out bringing down Tory PM who goes for No Deal. “This is a very difficult situation, it would not just challenge not just me, but many of our colleagues, and I hope we never get to that position.” Pushes up odds of autumn election.

Why no confidence Tom Watson he’s one of the sane ones.

I think i won't be able to help myself tonight and I'll stay up. Unless it's looking horrific and I'm off to bed to sob.

And I will shut up about brum in a min but I have a born duty to mention the spaghetti junction. It should be a wonder of the world. We used to be proud of Cadbury world but now we are somewhat shamed due to the quality lowering. Also more canals than Venice.

Gaspode - god forbid that anyone confuses a Weegie with an Edinburger Let's just say that the rivalry between the two cities is ..... interesting At least there is a lot of countryside between the 2 cities - and the road connecting them has only recently been upgraded to a motorway all the way (And let's not get into the question of whether you'll have had your tea )

In Glasgow the big complaint is that the city is surrounded by the well-off suburbs which are very definitely (and have been for along time) part of the conurbation, yet are technically outwith the city boundary. So they don't pay the council tax (so that the average council tax within the city is Band A ) - yet are more than happy to work in the city and avail themselves of all its facilities, like its brilliant museums and art galleries (paid for by the council) (Says I with some bitterness as we live in one of the few Band F/G/H areas of the city - not that I actually mind paying a decent amount of council tax for our facilities)

In Zac's defence, he won his seat back from a LibDem in 2017 (anyone remember Sarah Olney). He of all MPs could reasonably argue his constituents accept him and his views Brexit stance and all.

Ah yes, Zak with his huge majority of 45.